Publication:
South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3: From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2017-06-01T21:13:50Z
dc.date.available2017-06-01T21:13:50Z
dc.date.issued2012-12
dc.description.abstractAfter two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group the six South East European countries (SEE6) Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia are experiencing a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. In this fragile environment, Serbia, Albania, and Montenegro in particular will need to persevere in reducing fiscal deficits and bringing down debt, even as they must continue to improve the investment climate and reform labor markets and the public sector. In all SEE6 countries, public sector arrears pose special challenges to fiscal management and the private sector, and there are unfinished, structural reforms agendas. After two years of deep crisis, a sluggish recovery, rising unemployment and poverty, and a continuing recession even with the best efforts on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, which must continue there is a danger that SEE6 countries are caught in a vicious circle that reinforces the cycle of long-term austerity, low if not negative growth, high debt, and even higher risks of social upheaval. To prevent this outcome, this report argues, SEE6 governments need to redouble their efforts to accelerate fiscal and structural reforms. These countries have largely exhausted their fiscal space and reduced public investment (except Kosovo, an outlier) to a fraction of what is needed to maintain public capital stock in critical infrastructure. Private investment is suppressed by the lack of productive, complementary public investments, slow credit recovery, and depressed domestic demand. External demand is minimal, and exports are not only too few, they are prevented from becoming an immediate, new engine of growth by infrastructure, finance, and other deficiencies. If such accelerated reforms materialize, external support well-coordinated and targeting the region as a whole, not just individual countries from the European Union (EU) and global international financial institutions (IFIs) could help ease the transition to a more sustained growth in medium term. In November 2012, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the World Bank announced 30 billion in financing for Central and South East European countries over the next two years. In SEE6 countries, this timely initiative would likely be delivered via the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and other IFI resources. Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) resources will also be important, especially in supporting institutional reform and rural development. By focusing on major infrastructure of regional significance (rail, highways, energy, and gas) and on jobs and small and medium enterprises, the efficiency of investments, growth, and employment could be substantially heightened. However, additional financing for growth and jobs could prove effective only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms, especially in the areas of investment climate, labor markets, and governance.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/298291468035472027/From-double-dip-recession-to-accelerated-reforms
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/26832
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/26832
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectACCESS TO MARKETS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectARREARS
dc.subjectASSET QUALITY
dc.subjectAUCTIONS
dc.subjectBAILIFF
dc.subjectBANK LENDING
dc.subjectBANK LINKAGES
dc.subjectBANK LOAN
dc.subjectBANKING SYSTEMS
dc.subjectBANKRUPTCY
dc.subjectBASIS POINTS
dc.subjectBENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subjectBIDS
dc.subjectBINDING CONSTRAINT
dc.subjectBOND
dc.subjectBOND SPREADS
dc.subjectBORROWING COSTS
dc.subjectBUDGET CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectBUDGETING
dc.subjectBUSINESS CONFIDENCE
dc.subjectCAPITAL ADEQUACY
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectCAPITALIZATION
dc.subjectCARBON
dc.subjectCASH FLOW
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCHEMICAL INDUSTRY
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCOAL
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL REGISTRY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVE TENDERS
dc.subjectCONFIDENCE OF LENDERS
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subjectCOUNTRY RISKS
dc.subjectCPI
dc.subjectCREDIT CRUNCH
dc.subjectCREDIT DEFAULT
dc.subjectCREDIT DEFAULT SWAP
dc.subjectCREDIT GROWTH
dc.subjectCREDIT INFORMATION
dc.subjectCREDIT LINE
dc.subjectCREDIT MARKET
dc.subjectCREDITWORTHINESS
dc.subjectCURRENCY MISMATCHES
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
dc.subjectDEBT LEVELS
dc.subjectDEBT RESTRUCTURING
dc.subjectDEFICITS
dc.subjectDEPOSIT
dc.subjectDEPOSIT INSURANCE
dc.subjectDEPOSITOR
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subjectEARNINGS
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC CLIMATE
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC SITUATION
dc.subjectECONOMISTS
dc.subjectEDUCATION SYSTEMS
dc.subjectELECTRICITY GENERATION
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectEMPLOYER
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectEQUALITY
dc.subjectEQUITY ISSUES
dc.subjectEQUITY MARKETS
dc.subjectETHNIC GROUPS
dc.subjectETHNIC MINORITIES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORT PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL BORROWING
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL OPENNESS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SAFETY
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SERVICES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subjectFINANCING REQUIREMENTS
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFLOATING EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectFOREIGN BANKS
dc.subjectFOREIGN CAPITAL
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTORS
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectGLOBALIZATION
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BUDGETS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subjectGRACE PERIOD
dc.subjectHIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectINCOME TAX
dc.subjectINEQUALITIES
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL REFORM
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BOND
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectINVENTORY
dc.subjectINVESTMENT BANK
dc.subjectINVESTMENT CLIMATE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT FUNDS
dc.subjectINVESTMENT RATES
dc.subjectINVESTOR PROTECTIONS
dc.subjectJOB CREATION
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE SURVEY
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MOBILITY
dc.subjectLEGAL ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectLEGAL FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectLENDERS
dc.subjectLIMITED ACCESS
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARDS
dc.subjectLOAN
dc.subjectLOAN MARKETS
dc.subjectLOAN QUALITY
dc.subjectLOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS
dc.subjectLOSS OF CONFIDENCE
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subjectMARKET CONFIDENCE
dc.subjectMARKET DISTORTIONS
dc.subjectMETALS
dc.subjectMINIMUM CAPITAL REQUIREMENT
dc.subjectMINIMUM WAGE
dc.subjectNONPAYMENT
dc.subjectNONPERFORMING LOANS
dc.subjectOIL
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectPAYMENT OBLIGATIONS
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPERSONAL INCOME
dc.subjectPOLITICAL STABILITY
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTORS
dc.subjectPRIVATIZATION
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectREAL WAGES
dc.subjectRECESSION
dc.subjectREGISTRATION FEE
dc.subjectREGULATORY BARRIERS
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectREPAYMENT
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectRETURN
dc.subjectRETURN ON ASSETS
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRULE OF LAW
dc.subjectSAFETY NET
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSHAREHOLDER
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECURITY
dc.subjectSOVEREIGN DEBT
dc.subjectSOVEREIGN RATING
dc.subjectSTATE GUARANTEES
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX COLLECTIONS
dc.subjectTAX TREATMENT
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADING
dc.subjectTRANSACTION
dc.subjectTREASURY
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATES
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.titleSouth East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3en
dc.title.alternativeOd Drugog Talasa Recesije ka Ubrzanim Reformama Nga Recesioni i Dyfishte ne Reforma te Pershpejtuara Od Drugog Talasa Recesije ka Ubrzanim Reformamaen
dc.title.subtitleFrom Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reformsen
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleSouth East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3
okr.date.disclosure2012-12-31
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-07T09:01:13.646595Z
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/298291468035472027/From-double-dip-recession-to-accelerated-reforms
okr.guid819771468023364672
okr.guid589251468255858024
okr.guid298291468035472027
okr.guid790091468037522290
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000333038_20121231014019
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum17132102
okr.identifier.report74593
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/298291468035472027/pdf/NonAsciiFileName0.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryAlbania
okr.region.countryBosnia and Herzegovina
okr.region.countryKosovo
okr.region.countryMacedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of
okr.region.countryMontenegro
okr.region.countrySerbia
okr.region.countryNorth Macedonia (Formerly the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)
okr.topicAgriculture::Food Security
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.unitMacroeconomics 2 (ECSP2)
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