Publication: Yemen Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Confronting Escalating Challenges
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2024-11-07
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2024-11-07
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The Yemen Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Yemen. The Monitor places these developments, policies, and findings in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications for Yemen’s outlook. Its coverage ranges from the macro economy to financial markets to human welfare and development indicators. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, development partners, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Yemen.
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“World Bank. 2024. Yemen Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Confronting Escalating Challenges. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42380 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Yemen Economic Monitoring Note, Fall 2012(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012)After almost a year of political, economic, and security upheaval, Yemen has now embarked on a new political path based on an agreement brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and overseen by the United Nations, or UN and the international community. The agreement was signed on November 23, 2011, after former President Saleh, the ruling party (GPC), and the opposition parties agreed to a political transition, dialogue, and political reforms. A transitional government of national unity was formed and confirmed by the Parliament in early December 2011. The transition President Hadi was elected on February, 21 2012, for the period spanning to the planned next general elections in the first half of 2014. In an environment of political tensions, the President made progress in reforming the security institutional set-up, in reducing the influence of Al-Qaeda forces, and in preparing for a national dialogue.Publication Yemen Economic Monitor, Fall 2023(Washington, DC, 2023-11-08)The Yemen Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Yemen. The Monitor places these developments, policies, and findings in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications for Yemen’s outlook. Its coverage ranges from the macro economy to financial markets to human welfare and development indicators. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, development partners, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Yemen.Publication Tunisia Economic Monitor, Fall 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-14)The Tunisian economy experienced a modest growth of 0.6 percent in the first half of 2024, following zero growth in 2023. By the end of 2024, Tunisia is projected to be the only country in its region with a real GDP still below pre-pandemic levels. The limited recovery in agriculture, coupled with declines in the oil and gas, garments, and construction sectors, hindered economic growth. Below-average rainfall restricted agricultural growth, which only recovered a third of the significant losses from the first half of 2023. The garment sector suffered due to reduced demand from the European Union, Tunisia's main export market. Oil and gas production continued its decade-long decline due to a lack of new investments, and the construction sector was impacted by limited domestic demand and challenging external financing conditions.Publication Libya Economic Monitor, Fall 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-06)Libya’s economic outlook relies heavily on the oil and gas sector, which constitutes a significant portion of its GDP, government revenue, and exports. With oil production expected to average 1.1 mbpd in 2024, GDP is anticipated to shrink by 2.7 percent this year. As oil output recovers in 2025 and 2026, reaching 1.2 and 1.3 mbpd, respectively; GDP growth is expected to rebound to 9.6 percent and 8.4 percent in 2026. Meanwhile, non-oil GDP growth is estimated to grow by 1.8 percent in 2024 supported by private and public consumption, and average around 9 percent during 2025–2026 to reflect strong recovery in oil exports. Despite the fall in oil revenues in 2024, both the fiscal and external balances surpluses are expected to widen to 1.7 and 4.1 percent of GDP, respectively, due to contractionary public and capital spending and falling imports. The outlook is subject to significant downside, as well as upside risks. The recent CBL crisis highlights the fragility of the political situation which had a direct short-term impact on the economy. Prospects for political stability and consensus would be a major upside for the Libyan economy and citizens. In the medium term, the main challenge remains economic diversification and reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. Lower oil prices not only reduce government revenues but would also add fiscal burden through higher cost of subsidies. Intensification of regional conflicts in the Middle East may disrupt trade, FDI, and financial flows but may also create revenue windfalls for Libya through higher oil prices. Extreme climate events may cause loss of human lives, severe damage to infrastructure, lower growth, and financial instability. The Special Focus Section “Stabilizing Growth and Boosting Productivity” provides an overview of Libya’s past drivers of economic growth and productivity trends. For over a decade now, the conflictual transition has had a devastating impact on the Libyan economy, estimated at US$600 billion in constant 2015 dollars. In 2023, Libya’s GDP absent the conflict is estimated to be 74 percent higher than the realized GDP. The high reliance on the oil sector, weak diversification, low and falling productivity owing to inefficient allocation of labor and capital, and deteriorating health and education quality are some of the key challenges that are holding back Libya’s long term prosperity. In the short-term, priorities should be enhanced security, governance and stability. With GNI per capita at $7,570 (2023), Libya is classified as an upper-middle-income country, however, it falls behind its peers on most development indicators. With the global transition to cleaner and greener energy, Libya’s growth strategy should focus on promoting non-oil sectors with high value-added job opportunities to maintain its upper-middle-income status. This could be achieved by promoting private sector-led growth.Publication Yemen : Economic Monitoring Report(Washington, DC, 2005-04)Decelerating Gross Domestic Product, or GDP growth widening primary non-oil fiscal deficit persisting double digit inflation and rapidly dwindling current account surpluses characterize the weaknesses in the Yemeni economy. Decline in oil production is proving to be an important turning point in Yemen s economic development. With the annual growth of GDP projected around percent for the second year in a row Yemen s per capita GDP is set to decline again in 2005. Underlying primary non-oil fiscal deficit continued to widen to 27 percent of GDP in 2004, reflecting the poor resource mobilization efforts. Inflation has persisted near 12 percent annual rate in the last two years and the inevitable revisions to petroleum prices and introduction of general sales tax will call for tighter monetary management to contain inflation in 2005. The buffer of foreign exchange reserves that the government has built to US $ 5 billion from high oil prices by end 2004 (some months of imports equivalent), could only provide a temporary cushion against erosion of current account balance.
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