Publication:
Libya Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Stabilizing Growth and Boosting Productivity

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-06T14:49:28Z
dc.date.available2025-01-06T14:49:28Z
dc.date.issued2025-01-06
dc.description.abstractLibya’s economic outlook relies heavily on the oil and gas sector, which constitutes a significant portion of its GDP, government revenue, and exports. With oil production expected to average 1.1 mbpd in 2024, GDP is anticipated to shrink by 2.7 percent this year. As oil output recovers in 2025 and 2026, reaching 1.2 and 1.3 mbpd, respectively; GDP growth is expected to rebound to 9.6 percent and 8.4 percent in 2026. Meanwhile, non-oil GDP growth is estimated to grow by 1.8 percent in 2024 supported by private and public consumption, and average around 9 percent during 2025–2026 to reflect strong recovery in oil exports. Despite the fall in oil revenues in 2024, both the fiscal and external balances surpluses are expected to widen to 1.7 and 4.1 percent of GDP, respectively, due to contractionary public and capital spending and falling imports. The outlook is subject to significant downside, as well as upside risks. The recent CBL crisis highlights the fragility of the political situation which had a direct short-term impact on the economy. Prospects for political stability and consensus would be a major upside for the Libyan economy and citizens. In the medium term, the main challenge remains economic diversification and reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. Lower oil prices not only reduce government revenues but would also add fiscal burden through higher cost of subsidies. Intensification of regional conflicts in the Middle East may disrupt trade, FDI, and financial flows but may also create revenue windfalls for Libya through higher oil prices. Extreme climate events may cause loss of human lives, severe damage to infrastructure, lower growth, and financial instability. The Special Focus Section “Stabilizing Growth and Boosting Productivity” provides an overview of Libya’s past drivers of economic growth and productivity trends. For over a decade now, the conflictual transition has had a devastating impact on the Libyan economy, estimated at US$600 billion in constant 2015 dollars. In 2023, Libya’s GDP absent the conflict is estimated to be 74 percent higher than the realized GDP. The high reliance on the oil sector, weak diversification, low and falling productivity owing to inefficient allocation of labor and capital, and deteriorating health and education quality are some of the key challenges that are holding back Libya’s long term prosperity. In the short-term, priorities should be enhanced security, governance and stability. With GNI per capita at $7,570 (2023), Libya is classified as an upper-middle-income country, however, it falls behind its peers on most development indicators. With the global transition to cleaner and greener energy, Libya’s growth strategy should focus on promoting non-oil sectors with high value-added job opportunities to maintain its upper-middle-income status. This could be achieved by promoting private sector-led growth.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099140012122442510/IDU13d87be7a1b0ad14a82193fc16a5f1106fc61
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/42609
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/42609
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/42609
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.rightsCC BY-NC 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/igo
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR-LED GROWTH
dc.subjectCLIMATE ACTION
dc.titleLibya Economic Monitor, Fall 2024en
dc.title.subtitleStabilizing Growth and Boosting Productivityen
dc.typeReport
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2025-01-06
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-14T11:52:31.823958Z
okr.date.lastmodified2024-12-16T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099140012122442510/IDU13d87be7a1b0ad14a82193fc16a5f1106fc61
okr.guid099140012122442510
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-3d87be7a-b0ad-4a82-93fc-6a5f1106fc61
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34437040
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34437040
okr.identifier.report195579
okr.import.id6199
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099140012122442510/pdf/IDU13d87be7a1b0ad14a82193fc16a5f1106fc61.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.countryLibya
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Employment and Unemployment
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.topicEnergy::Energy and Economic Development
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change and Environment
okr.unitEFI-MNA-MTI-MacroFiscal (EMNMT)
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
Thumbnail Image
Name:
IDU13d87be7a1b0ad14a82193fc16a5f1106fc61.pdf
Size:
12.11 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
IDU13d87be7a1b0ad14a82193fc16a5f1106fc61.txt
Size:
216.11 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
IDU1eef1d21f160ba143351871619b6d4d1b41d9.pdf
Size:
12.36 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Arabic PDF
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
IDU1eef1d21f160ba143351871619b6d4d1b41d9.txt
Size:
323.34 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Arabic Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Economic Updates and Modeling
Arabic PDFs Available