Publication: South Sudan Economic Monitor, Seventh Edition: A Pathway to Overcome the Crisis
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2025-03-19
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2025-03-19
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South Sudan’s socio-economic outcomes have worsened over the past decade due to recurrent conflicts, fragility, and macroeconomic mismanagement compounded by global economic and climate shocks. Even before the oil shock of early 2024, per capita gross domestic product had dropped by 18 percent relative to its 2015 level, with prices rising 93-fold over this period. The erosion in living standards has left three in four people in poverty as of 2022. This dire situation is the result of (i) nascent institutions and weak governance; (ii) persistent mismanagement of the country’s abundant natural capital, namely, oil; and (iii) recurrent community-level conflicts and violence that led to nationwide armed conflict in 2016 and localized ongoing conflict after the 2018 peace agreement. Overlapping exogenous shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and historic flooding have also impeded economic recovery. Macroeconomic policy challenges, characterized by the need for stronger monetary and fiscal policy frameworks and improved policy coordination, have contributed to economic imbalances and increased vulnerability to shocks. A complex global economic outlook presents heightened risks for South Sudan and underscores the need for immediate action. Escalating conflicts and geopolitical tensions, increased inflation, and slower economic growth in the world’s major economies pose substantial risks to the global outlook. Additionally, potential reductions in global aid and humanitarian support may have material consequences, as South Sudan is a large recipient of aid amounting to an estimated annual average of 23.8 percent of GDP during 2020-24.3 Against this challenging background, South Sudan is at a critical juncture in its development trajectory and the government has a decision to make about the economic path it chooses as the country moves forward.
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“World Bank. 2025. South Sudan Economic Monitor, Seventh Edition: A Pathway to Overcome the Crisis. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42974 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication South Sudan Economic Monitor, February 2022(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-02-16)South Sudan faced significant headwinds in FY2020/21, with the pandemic, floods, and violence flareups affecting economic activities. Consequently, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 5.4 percent in FY2020/21. Oil production declined by 5.9 percent as floods affected production and the COVID-19 pandemic delayed new investments to replace exhausted wells. In the agriculture sector, flooding precipitated estimated losses of 38,000 tons of cereals (4.3% of 2020 production) and 800,000 livestock according to FAO estimates. The overall cereal deficit was projected to reach 465,610 metric tons in 2021, equivalent to about 35 percent of the overall food requirement for the year, sustaining high levels of food insecurity. Living conditions continue to be impacted by violence, displacement, and inadequate access to basic services. With improving macroeconomic conditions supported by an ongoing macro-fiscal reform program, a modest growth rebound of 1.2 percent is projected in FY2021/22. Nevertheless, poverty levels are expected to remain exceptionally high. As the economy recovers from multiple shocks, a focus on policy options to stimulate the creation of a sufficient number of quality jobs to absorb a young and expanding labor force should take center stage. Economies that create jobs, particularly for the youth, are generally more stable and can elevate public confidence in the Government’s capacity to deliver. In South Sudan, an effective jobs support program would invest in immediate livelihood support, the recovery of modest business activities, and the revival of markets.Publication Sudan - Stabilization and Reconstruction : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Main Text(Washington, DC, 2003-06-30)This Country Economic Memorandum is the first economic report in a decade. It gives priority to updating knowledge about the evolution of social and economic developments during the 1990s. It reviewareas of progress in macroeconomic reforms and the lack of success in governance and institutional reforms. Substantial reforms were undertaken in this period , but the civil war continued to have a serious negative impact on Sudan's people and its economic prospects. While the results of the reforms have been promising, particularly in the area of macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization, the distribution of economic wealth needs to improve. Although there has not been any national household survey since 1978, social indicators point to low levels of welfare throughout Sudan, with some indicators well below those in Sub-Saharan Africa. among the many issues facing the Sudanese economy are these: There has been high growth but skewed distribution. Stabilization has been costly in social terms: expenditures were cut by more than 50 percent relative to gross domestic product (GDP), causing considerable reductions in social services and infrastructure development. Key services were decentralized, delegated to states and local communities, which had neither the revenues nor the administrative capacity for these tasks. High poverty rates persist. Social inequalities threaten to undermine macroeconomic stability. Moreover, the civil war was costly in terms of human suffering. Millions are internally displaced, there are almost a million refugees in camps in neighboring countries, the death toll is estimated at 2 million, and warring armies continue to claim substantial resources. However, peace negotiations look encouraging. 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The analysis is restricted to households present in all rounds and, thus, is not statistically representative but only provides a descriptive narrative of the livelihood of the selected urban households in Juba, Rumbek and Wau. These cities are not among the cities most affected by the conflict.Publication South Sudan Economic Monitor(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-08)Notwithstanding slower global growth and lingering impacts of recent catastrophic floods, private sector activity, outside the oil sector, has been supported by a relative return to peace, and higher government spending. Nevertheless, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.4 percent in FY23/24, reflecting drags from oil production. Supported by a successful exchange rate liberalization, inflation averaged -3.2 percent in 2022 and around 3 percent in the first nine months of 2023. Monetary policy has tightened in recent months, but it remains imperative that the central bank refrain from financing the fiscal deficit. The FY23/24 budget projects a smaller financing gap of about 13 percent of budget expenditures comparedto previous years. However, financing vulnerabilities remain high because of limited fiscal and external liquidity buffers and limited debt-carrying capacity.Publication South Sudan Economic Brief(Washington, DC, 2019-04)The economy is estimated to have contracted by 3.5 percent during FY2017-2018, but a modest recovery is projected for FY2018-2019. Coupled with economic mismanagement, many years of conflict have eroded the productive capacity of South Sudan. Conflict persists across the country despite the peace agreement and is the major driver of the economic collapse. Oil production is expected to be the major driver of growth in the short and medium term. South Sudan remains in debt distress and the external position is weak, with depleted reserves estimated at less than one week of import cover. If the peace agreement is respected by all parties and conflict does not recur, the economy is projected to grow by 1.8 percent during FY2018-2019. However, a less positive outlook could emerge if the peace agreement falters, with growth barely reaching 0.3 percent in the absence of progress in the non-oil sectors.
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