Publication: Unraveling the Worldwide Pollution Haven Effect
Loading...
Published
2006-11
ISSN
Date
2012-06-26
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper contributes to the debate on the existence of pollution haven effects by systematically measuring the pollution content of trade (measured by the pollution content of imports, PCI) and decomposing it into three components-a "deep" component (unrelated to the environmental debate but including variables traditionally present in the gravity model) and two components (factor endowments and environmental policies) that occupy center stage in the debate on trade and the environment. The decomposition is carried out for 1986-88 for an extensive data set covering 10 pollutants, 48 countries, and 79 ISIC 4-digit sectors. Illustrative decompositions presented for three of the 10 pollutants in the data set indicate a significant pollution haven effect which increases the PCI of the North because of stricter environmental regulations in the North. At the same time, the factor endowment effect decreases the PCI of the North as the North is relatively well-endowed in capital and pollution-intensive activities are also capital-intensive. On a global scale, because the bulk of trade is intraregional with a high North-North share, these effects are small relative to the "deep" determinants of the worldwide pollution content of trade. In sum, although the impact has been stronger on vertical (North-South) trade flows, differences in factor endowments and environmental policies have only marginally affected the pollution content of world trade during the 1986-88 period.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole A.; de Melo, Jaime. 2006. Unraveling the Worldwide Pollution Haven Effect. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4047. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9021 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The State of Global Services Trade Policies: Evidence from Recent Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-28)The economic environment for services trade has changed dramatically over the past 15 years, driven by rapid technological progress that has expanded the possibilities for exchanging services. How has trade policy responded to these changes? How do policy stances in a wide range of service sectors compare across economies? With its unprecedented global coverage, the Services Trade Policy Database and the associated Services Trade Restrictions Index, developed jointly by the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, help address these questions. This paper makes three principal contributions. First, it offers an in-depth discussion of the current state of services trade policies and their differences across 134 economies and 34 services subsectors. Second, the paper reveals how recent (2016–22) changes in policy stances have seen progressive liberalization by lower-income economies but stabilization or even slight policy reversals in high-income economies. This dynamic differs fundamentally from the trend that unfolded after the Great Recession over 2008–16. Third, the paper shows the implications of policy changes over the past six years on services trade costs, and it showcases how the Services Trade Policy Database’s regulatory information can inform trade negotiations, regulatory analysis, and policy making. Alongside these contributions, the paper documents updates to the Services Trade Policy Database’s economy and sector coverage and explains the latest methodological improvements made to the World Bank–World Trade Organization Services Trade Restrictions Index.Publication It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22)As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.Publication The Marshall Plan: Then and Now(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-14)This paper is a product of the Development Policy Team, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication DR-CAFTA and the Environment(2011-10-01)The Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement with the United States aims to create a free trade zone for economic development. The Agreement is expected to intensify commerce and investment among the participating countries. This paper analyzes the changes in the production and trading patterns in 2-digit manufacturing sectors with the goal of understanding the short-term environmental implications of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement. More specifically, the paper addresses the questions: Did pollution increase in the period after the Agreement negotiations? Did trade and production shift toward pollution intensive factors? The results suggest an increase in pollution emissions in the post-negotiations period. The increase in emissions is mainly attributable to scale effects. Composition effects are small and in some cases (including Nicaragua and Honduras) favoring cleaner industries and partially compensating the pollution gains from output and export growth.Publication Pollution Havens and Foreign Direct Investment : Dirty Secret or Popular Myth?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-09)The "pollution haven" hypothesis refers to the possibility that multinational firms, particularly those engaged in highly polluting activities, relocate to countries with weaker environmental standards. Despite the plausibility and popularity of this hypothesis, there is little evidence to support it. The authors identify four obstacles that may have impeded researchers' ability to find evidence in favor of the "pollution haven" hypothesis: 1) The possibility that some features of host countries, such as bureaucratic corruption, may deter inward foreign direct investment and also be positively correlated with lax environmental standards. Omitting this information in statistical analyses may produce misleading results. 2) The possibility that country- or industry-level data, typically used in the literature, may have masked the effect at the firm level. 3) Difficulties associated with measuring environmental standards of the host countries. 4) Difficulties associated with the measuring the pollution intensity of the multinational firms. The authors attempt to surmount these obstacles by explicitly taking into account corruption in host countries and using a firm-level data set on investment projects in 24 transition economies. With these improvements, the authors find some support for the "pollution haven" hypothesis, but evidence is still weak and does not survive numerous robustness checks.Publication Trade in a ‘Green Growth’ Development Strategy : Global Scale Issues and Challenges(2012-10)This paper surveys the state of knowledge about the trade-related environmental consequences of a country's development strategy along three channels: (i) direct trade-environment linkages (overexploitation of natural resources and trade-related transport costs); (ii) 'virtual trade' in emissions resulting from production activities; and (iii) the product mix attributes of a 'green-growth' strategy (environmentally preferable products and goods for environmental management). Trade exacerbates over-exploitation of natural resources in weak institutional environments, but there is little evidence that differences in environmental policies across countries has led to significant 'pollution havens.' Trade policies to 'level the playing field' would be ineffective and result in destructive conflicts in the World Trade Organization. Lack of progress at the Doha Round suggests the need to modify the current system of global policy making.Publication Brazil Low Carbon Case Study : Waste(Washington, DC, 2010)This report synthesis the findings for the waste sector of a broader study, the Brazil low carbon study, which was undertaken by the World Bank in its initiative to support Brazil's integrated effort towards reducing national and global emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) while promoting long term development. The purpose of the present report is to assist in the preparation of public policy proposals regarding GHG emissions and the additional financial resources necessary. The main purpose of the scenarios is to provide an evaluation of the GHG emissions arising from the different approaches and methods for treating waste and to ensure that important environmental aspects are taken into account when key decisions are being made on the waste treatment technologies to be applied in Brazil. The World Bank and covers four key areas with large potential for low-carbon options: 1) Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF), including deforestation; 2) transport systems; 3) energy production and use, particularly electricity, oil and gas and bio-fuels; and 4) solid and liquid urban waste.Publication Strategic Environmental Assessment for Industry Sector Himachal Pradesh, India(Washington, DC, 2013-12-23)This strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is a technical piece intended to assist in the current and future identification of priority industrial pollutants and economic instruments to minimize industrial waste. This industrial sector SEA is one of six pieces of technical support envisioned by the Himachal Pradesh (HP) inclusive green growth (IGG) development policy loan (DPL) to fill knowledge gaps and strengthen operational success of the DPL. The DPL acknowledges that industrial development is an important economic driver within HP, and that such development must be consistent with maintaining the integrity of other natural resource assets on which human health depend. The general objectives of the SEA study are: (i) to assist in identification of priority pollutants and industries; (ii) to review existing institutional structures that address these pollutants; (iii) to identify and recommend potential reform options through the introduction of new policy approaches; and (iv) to identify complementary institutional support necessary to implement such a program. The SEA was undertaken from April to December 2013 based on secondary data collection, existing literature, various consultative meetings with key stakeholders, and diagnostic analyses of this information. The purpose of the consultations was to discuss the findings, issues, and preliminary directions suggested by the desk reviews, and to initiate a work plan for amassing additional information. The SEA has included participatory approaches to ensure that presented policy changes are designed and implemented in a way that is responsive to the different segments of HP society. This report is presented in three parts. Part one forms a foundation for focusing subsequent diagnostic work by providing more extensive detail on the institutional context, pollution situation, health and environmental linkages, and opportunities for using economic instruments. Part two performs additional diagnostic analyses to inform the core recommendations relating to options for new economic instruments, institutional reforms, and capacity building; these recommendations are presented in part three.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Bangladesh Development Update, October 2013(Washington, DC, 2013-10)Economic performance has remained resilient to global headwinds and disruptive politics in Bangladesh in FY13. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth decelerated for the second year in a row to 6 percent. Disruptions caused by political strife, deepening political tensions relating to the impending political transition and the inadequacies of improvements in the provision of power, gas and infrastructure were the key factors in the growth slowdown. These contributed to weakening investor confidence leading to a 1.2 percent decline in the private investment rate. Recovery in remittance growth contributed to sustaining private consumption growth which combined with a significant rise in public investment and robust increases in exports helped maintain GDP growth above the average 5 percent growth in developing countries in 2013. Growth declined in both the agriculture and service sectors while industrial growth increased slightly. Inflation decelerated but remained high. Annual average inflation declined from 8.7 percent in FY12 to 6.8 percent in FY13. External balances have improved further. The external trade deficit decreased significantly due primarily to an increase in export growth over FY12 and flat import payments. The banking system remains under stress and capital market activities have been weak. Several financial scams and resultant loan defaults in the state-owned commercial banks moved them into a position of insolvency, which needs to be urgently addressed. The most pressing challenges lie in maintaining economic and financial reforms, rebuilding the image of the garment sector, and removing supply bottlenecks. Some structural reforms have moved forward. The International Monetary Fund's extended credit facility is on track with significant progress in strengthening macroeconomic conditions and structural policies under the extended credit facility arrangement. The new value added tax law has moved firmly into the implementation phase; the National Board of Revenue has introduced an online tax registration system; amendments to the Banking Companies Act have been passed and progress is being made in identifying critical weaknesses in the state-owned commercial banks; the FY14 budget introduced revenue reforms such as increasing the corporate profit tax rate on cigarette manufacturing companies and reducing the nominal protection rate to 28.1 percent in FY14 from 28.9 percent in FY13. Removing Bangladesh's favored access to the United States market under the Generalized System of Preferences program may not hurt Bangladesh's garment industry unduly. If the European Union were to suspend Bangladesh's favored access to its markets, Bangladesh could see its total exports fall by as much as 4.1 to 8 percent.Publication Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018)The Democratic Republic of Congo has the third largest urban population in sub-Saharan Africa (estimated at 43% in 2016) after South Africa and Nigeria. It is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% per year, which corresponds to an additional 1 million residents moving to cities every year. If this trend continues, the urban population could double in just 15 years. Thus, with a population of 12 million and a growth rate of 5.1% per year, Kinshasa is poised to become the most populous city in Africa by 2030. Such strong urban growth comes with two main challenges – the need to make cities livable and inclusive by meeting the high demand for social services, infrastructure, education, health, and other basic services; and the need to make cities more productive by addressing the lack of concentrated economic activity. The Urbanization Review of the Democratic Republic of Congo argues that the country is urbanizing at different rates and identifies five regions (East, South, Central, West and Congo Basin) that present specific challenges and opportunities. The Urbanization Review proposes policy options based on three sets of instruments, known as the three 'I's – Institutions, Infrastructures and Interventions – to help each region respond to its specific needs while reaping the benefits of economic agglomeration The Democratic Republic of the Congo is at a crossroads. The recent decline in commodity prices could constitute an opportunity for the country to diversify its economy and invest in the manufacturing sector. Now is an opportune time for Congolese decision-makers to invest in cities that can lead the country's structural transformation and facilitate greater integration with African and global markets. Such action would position the country well on the path to emergence.Publication Firm-Level Technology Adoption in Vietnam(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03)This paper describes the results of a new firm survey to measure technology use and adoption implemented prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in Vietnam. It analyzes the use and adoption of technology among Vietnamese firms and identifies some of the key barriers to adoption and diffusion. The analysis offers new and important stylized facts on firm-level use of technologies. First, although access to the internet is almost universal in Vietnam, firms had low digital readiness to face the COVID-19 pandemic; and the share of establishments with their own website, social media, and cloud computing is still small. Second, the use of Industry 4.0 technologies is incipient. Third, the technology gap with the use of frontier technologies in some general business functions, such as quality control, production planning, sales, and sourcing and procurement, is large. Fourth, the manufacturing sector faces the largest technological gap, larger than services and agricultural firms. The analysis of the main barriers and drivers to technology adoption and use shows the importance of good management quality for technology adoption, and that there is a technology premium associated with exporting activities. Finally, the analysis also shows that firms are largely unaware of the available public policy support for technology upgrading.Publication Vietnam(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05-01)Following from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectiveness from January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratification by the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated its determination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the future global context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chains due to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries in the region. The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However, in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistent economic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves to ratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner, the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) from joining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that must be addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance with Vietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generation of FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that the country maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment. This report explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into the global economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA.Publication Strengthening Competitiveness In Bangladesh—Thematic Assessment(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-07-15)This is volume 2 of a three-volume publication on Bangladesh’s trade prospects. Bangladesh’s ambition is to build on its very solid growth and poverty reduction achievements, and accelerate growth to become a middle income country by 2021, and share prosperity more widely amongst its citizens. This includes one of its greatest development challenges: to provide gainful employment to the over 2 million people that will join the labor force each year over the next decade. Moreover, only 54.1 million of its 94 million working age people are employed. Bangladesh needs to use its labor endowment even more intensively to increase growth and, in turn, to absorb the incoming labor. The Diagnostic Trade Integration Study identifies the following actions centered around four pillars to sustain and accelerate export growth: (1) breaking into new markets through a) better trade logistics to reduce delivery lags ; as world markets become more competitive and newer products demand shorter lead times, to generate new sources of competitiveness and thereby enable market diversification; and b) better exploitation of regional trading opportunities in nearby growing and dynamic markets, especially East and South Asia; (2) breaking into new products through a) more neutral and rational trade policy and taxation and bonded warehouse schemes; b) concerted efforts to spur domestic investment and attract foreign direct investment, to contribute to export promotion and diversification, including by easing the energy and land constraints; and c) strategic development and promotion of services trade; (3) improving worker and consumer welfare by a) improving skills and literacy; b) implementing labor and work safety guidelines; and c) making safety nets more effective in dealing with trade shocks; and (4) building a supportive environment, including a) sustaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals; and b) strengthening the institutional capacity for strategic policy making aimed at the objective of international competitiveness to help bring focus and coherence to the government’s reform efforts. This second volume provides in-depth analysis across seven cross-cutting themes that underpin most of the findings of pillars 1 and 2 above.