Publication: An Agenda for Research on Urbanization in Developing Countries : A Summary of Findings from a Scoping Exercise
Loading...
Published
2010-11-01
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper assesses the state of research and examines priorities for future work in the area of urbanization and growth. This is done by reviewing and summarizing the findings of five scoping papers covering the following topics: urban poverty, the political economy of urban poverty, urban real estate and housing, urban infrastructure finance, and external assistance for urban development.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Annez, Patricia Clarke; Linn, Johannes F.. 2010. An Agenda for Research on Urbanization in Developing Countries : A Summary of Findings from a Scoping Exercise. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5476. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3958 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Rigging the Scores: Corruption through Scoring Rule Manipulation in Public Procurement Auctions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-02)Public procurement is highly susceptible to corruption, especially in developing countries. Although open auctions are widely adopted to curb it, this paper finds that corruption remains prevalent even within this procurement format. Procurement officers can collaborate with firms to manipulate scoring rules, ensuring predetermined winners, while corrupt firms submit noncompetitive bids to meet minimum bidder requirements. Using extensive data from Chinese public procurement auctions, the paper introduces model-driven statistical tools to detect such corruption, identifying a corruption rate of 65 percent. A procurement expert audit survey confirms the tools’ reliability, with a 91 percent probability that experts recognize suspicious scoring rules when flagged. Firm-level analysis reveals that local, state-owned, and less productive firms are favored in corrupt auctions. Lastly, the paper explores policy implications. Analysis of the national anti-corruption campaign since 2012 suggests that general investigations may be insufficient to address deeply ingrained corrupt practices. Using counterfactuals based on an estimated structural model, the paper shows that implementing anonymous call-for-tender evaluations could improve social welfare by 10 percent by eliminating suspicious rules and encouraging broader participation.Publication Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18)This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.Publication Investment Policy Reforms and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-01)Foreign direct investment has the potential to introduce much-needed capital and expertise in emerging and developing economies. To attract foreign direct investment, many countries have eased restrictions on foreign ownership in various sectors, reformed their institutions, and set up investment promotion agencies. Until the mid-2010s, Ethiopia remained one of the few countries that resisted this trend, with several stringent restrictions in place on foreign direct investment entry and operations in the country. This study employs a synthetic control method to examine patterns in foreign capital inflows following a series of investment policy reforms that were substantively introduced in the mid-2010s (circa 2015). The study offers evidence that investment policy reforms contributed to a significant foreign direct investment inflow in Ethiopia, compared to what would have occurred in the absence of these policies. An alternative strategy that conservatively specifies the donor country pool using an AI-assisted deep search technique changes the donor pool weighting matrix of the synthetic control method, but the estimated policy effects largely remain robust to this specification. The findings highlight the importance of targeted reforms in promoting foreign direct investment inflow in developing countries.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Sophia City Strategy(Sofia Municipality and the Cities Alliance/World Bank, Sofia, 2003-05)The purpose of the Sofia City Strategy (SCS) is to combat poverty and provide the basis for sustainable development of the local economy and the welfare of city residents. SCS is driven by the need to reevaluate the increased role of Bulgarian local authorities that resulted from the country's transition from socialism to a market economy. Launching a long-term strategy for Sofia will provide the municipality with an opportunity to effectively implement the goals that it set out to achieve in the three to five year period ahead. Sofia's city management initiated work on the strategy in 2000 after cities alliance committed to support the initiative. The strategy draws upon the preferences and expectations of the population that were identified through analyses, consultations and surveys undertaken by international organizations and experts during strategy development. Five broad areas have been identified as key components of the strategy: i) the role of the municipality in the development and growth of the city economy; ii) the provision of infrastructure, social and administrative services available for citizens; iii) the physical planning and spatial landscape of the city; iv) the financing of the city; and v) the management and governance exercised by the city administration.Publication Transforming Settlements of the Urban Poor in Uganda : A Secondary Cities Support Programme(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-05-19)This report describes theTransforming Settlements of the Urban Poor in Uganda. A Secondary Cities Support Program (TSUPU), is the first national initiative within the Cities Alliance's global programme, Land, Services and Citizenship for the Urban Poor (LSC). The first premise of the Medium Term Strategy is that the Cities Alliance should prioritise working with those governments already committed to change and reform over time for three main reasons: the Cities Alliance support will have a far greater impact, and the opportunities for learning and knowledge sharing will be greatly enhanced, and the model or example to other cities or countries will be more emphatic. Based on this, a program has been designed to support a selected group of developing countries who have recognized the importance of dealing with the challenge of rapid urbanisation, growing cities and deepening urban poverty. The report outlines the activities the TSUPU has designed, that will help the Ugandan government to identify and capture the positive elements of urbanisation, and create inclusive cities without slums in order to maximise the potential of urbanisation by proactively managing urban growth.Publication Republic of Togo : Urban and Peri-Urban Development and Policy Note(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-06-29)This review concludes that for Togo's urban and peri-urban areas to sustainably grow, issues of urban governance and development need to be approached in a comprehensive manner, driven by well -guided policies developed in partnership with the people to support Sub-National Government Authorities and Entities(SGAs) in carrying out their functions efficiently. To meet evolving challenges of urbanization and decentralization, the Government of Togo (GoT) must rationalize the roles of various levels of government and agencies and limit their numbers to limit duplication, strengthen the capacities of relevant sector institutions and coordinate institutional actions and investments. It is further recommended that GoT must (i) clarify the roles and functions of national, prefectural, and local governments while ensuring that coordination functions between them work well; (ii) separate urban policy and regulatory functions from implementation of urban projects by allocating implementation responsibilities to private operators or qualified state agencies under performance-based arrangements; (iii) ensure proper allocation of taxing responsibilities, develop and implement transfer of financial resources from the central government to the local governments on a transparent basis supported by simple and precise criteria; and (iv) strengthen the central government s role in policy, regulatory, coordination, oversight and supervision. Contractualization of relationships between different tiers of government and benchmarking of performance must be prominent among the guiding principles that should govern the delivery of responsibilities of GoT, SGAs and their agencies. Finally, this necessary, first step stock-taking review of Togo s urban and peri-urban sector has revealed knowledge & data gaps that need to be filled through further analysis and studies on (a) infrastructure services provision needs as well as capacity to implement, operate and maintain them, (b) improving the functioning of the urban land market and shelter-related issues, (c) strengthening municipal financing, (d) developing city and local economic development strategies (CDS & LED), and (e) socio-economic and technical approaches to financing of slum upgrading.Publication Land and Urban Policies for Poverty Reduction : Proceedings of the Third International Urban Research Symposium Held in Brasilia, April 2005, Volume 2(World Bank, Brasilia, 2007)The first paper of this section (Durand-Laserve) documents how increasing pressures on urban land and the 'commodification' of shelter and settlement has increased 'market evictions' of families holding intermediate tide to property, although international declarations and pressures have contributed to reducing 'forced evictions.' The second paper (Mooya and Cloete) uses the tools of the New Institutional Economics to analyze the argument in Hernando DeSoto's path-breaking book, The Mystery of Capital, that full legal tide is the key to turning 'dead capital' in the form of informal property held by many low-income families into an economic asset and to detonating broad-based economic growth. The paper concludes that intermediate forms of tenure can have the virtues of full legal tide if properly constructed, and then examines the case of Namibia in this context. The third paper (Fernandes) documents and assesses the recent efforts of the Brazilian federal Ministry of Cities to develop a comprehensive approach for regularizing title throughout that country. In the fourth paper, Abramo gives a structural and theoretical over-view of informal settlement in Brazil. The fifth paper (Rakodi) looks at traditional land delivery systems in five medium-sized Sub-Saharan African cities, and concludes that policies and programs can build on their strengths.Publication Land and Urban Policies for Poverty Reduction : Proceedings of the Third International Urban Research Symposium Held in Brasilia, April 2005, Volume 1(World Bank, Washington, DC and Institute for Applied Economic Research, Brasilia, 2007)The first paper of this section (Durand-Laserve) documents how increasing pressures on urban land and the 'commodification' of shelter and settlement has increased 'market evictions' of families holding intermediate tide to property, although international declarations and pressures have contributed to reducing 'forced evictions.' The second paper (Mooya and Cloete) uses the tools of the New Institutional Economics to analyze the argument in Hernando DeSoto's path-breaking book, The Mystery of Capital, that full legal tide is the key to turning 'dead capital' in the form of informal property held by many low-income families into an economic asset and to detonating broad-based economic growth. The paper concludes that intermediate forms of tenure can have the virtues of full legal tide if properly constructed, and then examines the case of Namibia in this context. The third paper (Fernandes) documents and assesses the recent efforts of the Brazilian federal Ministry of Cities to develop a comprehensive approach for regularizing title throughout that country. In the fourth paper, Abramo gives a structural and theoretical over-view of informal settlement in Brazil. The fifth paper (Rakodi) looks at traditional land delivery systems in five medium-sized Sub-Saharan African cities, and concludes that policies and programs can build on their strengths.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital-in-Health(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-18)Technology and data are integral to daily life. As health systems face increasing demands to deliver new, more, better, and seamless services affordable to all people, data and technology are essential. With the potential and perils of innovations like artificial intelligence the future of health care is expected to be technology-embedded and data-linked. This shift involves expanding the focus from digitization of health data to integrating digital and health as one: Digital-in-Health. The World Bank’s report, Digital-in-Health: Unlocking the Value for Everyone, calls for a new digital-in-health approach where digital technology and data are infused into every aspect of health systems management and health service delivery for better health outcomes. The report proposes ten recommendations across three priority areas for governments to invest in: prioritize, connect and scale.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication World Bank Annual Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25)This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.