Publication: World Investment and Political Risk 2012
Abstract
Global economic growth estimates for 2012 indicate a continuing fragile recovery. The ongoing sovereign debt crisis and recession in the euro zone, curtailed bank lending and domestic deleveraging, fluctuating but elevated commodity prices, and the ongoing political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa have slowed the initial rebound that followed the 2008 global financial crisis. This slow progress has had an impact on developing countries, which initially fared well in terms of rebounding growth rates, private capital flows, and foreign direct investment (FDI). This report examines investors' perceptions and risk-mitigation strategies as they navigate today's uncertain economic waters. It finds that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to investing in developing countries and are increasingly turning toward Political Risk Insurance (PRI) as a risk-mitigation tool. The insurance industry has responded with new products and innovative ways to use existing products as well as substantial capacity to meet the growing demand.
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“Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. 2013. World Investment and Political Risk 2012. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15504 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication World Investment and Political Risk 2009(World Bank, 2009)Political risk is a top concern for corporate foreign investors from industrialized but also developing countries when venturing into emerging markets. At the same time, these investors maintain a positive outlook on economic and business prospects in the developing world, which is expected to attract a growing share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) as the world economy slowly, recovers. Positive business sentiment over emerging markets amid concerns over political perils point to a sustained need to mitigate these perils. This, added to the rise of South-based investors, offers opportunities and challenges for the political risk insurance (PRI) industry. In the current context of high uncertainty, understanding how investors perceive and deal with political risks helps to map out the role of PRI in the emerging post-crisis investment landscape. This report focuses on FDI and PRI for long-term investment, and only covers political risk in developing countries. Although political risk also affects other forms of private capital flows, these are beyond the scope of this publication. The main findings of the report are summarized as follows: i) while political risks top foreign investors' concerns, the global economic and financial crisis has not fundamentally altered FDI prospects for emerging markets; ii) concerns over political risks, combined with sustained FDI into emerging markets over the medium term, suggest a growing need for political risk mitigation and opportunities for the PRI industry; and iii) the emergence of South-based investors is increasingly shaping the global FDI environment and presents regional growth opportunities, but also challenges, for the PRI industry.Publication World Investment and Political Risk 2010(World Bank, 2011)Political risk remains the top preoccupation for foreign investors operating in developing countries over the next three years, in spite of persistent concerns over the global downturn in the short term. 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Underwriters and brokers did not find the empirical results surprising and agreed that these results support their overall underwriting views.Publication MIGA Annual Report 2013 : Insuring Investments, Ensuring Opportunities(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-11)In fiscal year 2013, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) issued 2.8 billion dollars in investment guarantees for projects in our developing member countries. At 1.5 billion dollars, representing more than half of new business, the bulk of MIGA's guarantees issued support investments in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sixty-nine percent of new business volume this year was in complex projects in infrastructure and extractive industries, a strategic priority for the Agency. This year, 82 percent of MIGA's new volume fell into one or more of strategic priority areas: investments in the world's poorest countries, "South-South" investments, investments in conflict-affected countries, and investments in complex projects. MIGA also established the conflict-affected and fragile economies facility to further deepen support to this priority area.
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