Publication: World Investment and Political Risk 2012
Loading...
Published
2013
ISSN
Date
2013-08-29
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Global economic growth estimates for 2012 indicate a continuing fragile recovery. The ongoing sovereign debt crisis and recession in the euro zone, curtailed bank lending and domestic deleveraging, fluctuating but elevated commodity prices, and the ongoing political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa have slowed the initial rebound that followed the 2008 global financial crisis. This slow progress has had an impact on developing countries, which initially fared well in terms of rebounding growth rates, private capital flows, and foreign direct investment (FDI). This report examines investors' perceptions and risk-mitigation strategies as they navigate today's uncertain economic waters. It finds that investors continue to rank political risk as a key obstacle to investing in developing countries and are increasingly turning toward Political Risk Insurance (PRI) as a risk-mitigation tool. The insurance industry has responded with new products and innovative ways to use existing products as well as substantial capacity to meet the growing demand.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. 2013. World Investment and Political Risk 2012. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15504 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication World Investment and Political Risk 2009(World Bank, 2009)Political risk is a top concern for corporate foreign investors from industrialized but also developing countries when venturing into emerging markets. At the same time, these investors maintain a positive outlook on economic and business prospects in the developing world, which is expected to attract a growing share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) as the world economy slowly, recovers. Positive business sentiment over emerging markets amid concerns over political perils point to a sustained need to mitigate these perils. This, added to the rise of South-based investors, offers opportunities and challenges for the political risk insurance (PRI) industry. In the current context of high uncertainty, understanding how investors perceive and deal with political risks helps to map out the role of PRI in the emerging post-crisis investment landscape. This report focuses on FDI and PRI for long-term investment, and only covers political risk in developing countries. Although political risk also affects other forms of private capital flows, these are beyond the scope of this publication. The main findings of the report are summarized as follows: i) while political risks top foreign investors' concerns, the global economic and financial crisis has not fundamentally altered FDI prospects for emerging markets; ii) concerns over political risks, combined with sustained FDI into emerging markets over the medium term, suggest a growing need for political risk mitigation and opportunities for the PRI industry; and iii) the emergence of South-based investors is increasingly shaping the global FDI environment and presents regional growth opportunities, but also challenges, for the PRI industry.Publication World Investment and Political Risk 2010(World Bank, 2011)Political risk remains the top preoccupation for foreign investors operating in developing countries over the next three years, in spite of persistent concerns over the global downturn in the short term. The global economic recession triggered by the financial crisis that has unfolded over the past two years has not spared the developing world. Yet, the fragile and modest recovery now under way is being led by developing countries, which are expected to remain attractive destinations for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). In light of overt political risk perceptions, the revival of FDI to these destinations calls for continued risk mitigation, including Political Risk Insurance (PRI). In the short term, concerns over the fallout from the financial crisis appear to dominate investors' preoccupations. Yet, FDI projections and surveys conducted for this report suggest that investors are cautiously optimistic about prospects for a global economic recovery led by the developing world. As a result, FDI to developing countries is expected to recover over the medium term. Investors from the primary industries, as well as those based in developing countries, appear particularly bullish in their investment intentions. As concerns over the health of the global economy recede, political risk considerations will return to pre-eminence for investors from both developed and developing countries.Publication Review of Risk Mitigation Instruments for Infrastructure Financing and Recent Trends and Developments(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007)The objective of the Review of Risk Mitigation Instruments for Infrastructure Financing and Recent Trends and Developments is to provide a concise yet comprehensive guide as well as reference information for practitioners of infrastructure financing, including private sector financiers and developing country officials. The work is also intended as a reference for institutions offering (or developing) risk mitigation instruments, allowing them to learn from each other's recent practices. The book is organized into five chapters with the following objectives: Chapter 1 Type of Risk Mitigation Instruments: increases awareness of the different types and nature of risk mitigation instruments currently available for private financiers. Chapter 2 Recent Trends in Risk Mitigation: highlights areas in risk mitigation for developing country infrastructure financing receiving recent attention. Chapter 3 Characteristics of Providers and Compatibility: summarizes the characteristics of multilateral, bilateral, and private providers of risk mitigation instruments and the compatibility of those instruments. Chapter 4 Innovative Application of Risk Mitigation Instruments: presents recent developments and innovative applications of risk mitigation instruments through case transactions. Chapter 5 Challenges Ahead: summarizes areas that pose challenges to the use of risk mitigation instruments as catalysts of infrastructure development. The focus of this book is on the multilateral development banks and agencies (that is, The World Bank Group and regional development banks and affiliates) and bilateral development agencies and export credit and investment agencies of major developed countries that have supported the compilation of this information.Publication World Investment and Political Risk 2011(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011-01)The mission of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) is to promote foreign direct investment (FDI) into developing countries to support economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve people's lives. As part of this mandate, the agency seeks to foster a better understanding of investors' perceptions of political risk as they relate to FDI, as well as the role of the political risk insurance (PRI) industry in mitigating these risks. Today's economic turbulence and fragility in developed countries are again posing challenges for the global economy. Developing countries are feeling the impact through multiple channels, including through the flows of FDI and private capital. Having rebounded sharply in 2010, FDI flows to developing countries continued to increase in 2011, but are expected to moderate going forward. The report highlights once again the salience of political risk as an important concern for multinational enterprises that seek to invest in developing countries. This is also reflected in the increased issuance of new political risk insurance in 2010, a trend that seems to be continuing in 2011, helped by a growing awareness of insurance as a risk-mitigation tool. This year the report also pays special attention to the FDI picture in the Middle East and North Africa region in light of the Arab Spring, as well as the reaction of multinational enterprises to these developments. This year's report puts a spotlight on expropriation, a political risk with a long and recurring history, and examines motivations of host-country governments in deciding whether to expropriate. The report also highlights the role of political or economic shocks in triggering expropriations. It finds that investor disputes are more likely to be resolved by democratically elected governments rather than non-democratic regimes. This suggests that the propensity to expropriate is significantly higher in countries with non-democratic regimes, a finding that should be of interest to investors who are more concerned about political stability than about regime type and political institutions. Research conducted for this report, including the MIGA- Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) survey and discussions with London-based private sector PRI underwriters and brokers, showed that the views of investors and PRI providers regarding regime type and expropriation risk differ slightly. Underwriters and brokers did not find the empirical results surprising and agreed that these results support their overall underwriting views.Publication MIGA Annual Report 2013 : Insuring Investments, Ensuring Opportunities(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-11)In fiscal year 2013, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) issued 2.8 billion dollars in investment guarantees for projects in our developing member countries. At 1.5 billion dollars, representing more than half of new business, the bulk of MIGA's guarantees issued support investments in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sixty-nine percent of new business volume this year was in complex projects in infrastructure and extractive industries, a strategic priority for the Agency. This year, 82 percent of MIGA's new volume fell into one or more of strategic priority areas: investments in the world's poorest countries, "South-South" investments, investments in conflict-affected countries, and investments in complex projects. MIGA also established the conflict-affected and fragile economies facility to further deepen support to this priority area.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17)Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.