Publication:
Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (6.22 MB)
135,302 downloads
Chapter 1 (1.97 MB)
2,325 downloads
Charts zipped (3.64 MB)
531 downloads
GDP data (91.3 KB)
708 downloads
Published
2021-06-08
ISSN
Date
2021-06-02
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominently among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2021. Global Economic Prospects, June 2021. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35647 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2012
    (Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank
    The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2011
    (2011-06) World Bank
    The global financial crisis is no longer the major force dictating the pace of economic activity in developing countries. The majorities of developing countries has, or are close to having regained full-capacity activity levels. As a result, country-specific productivity and sartorial factors are now the dominant factors underpinning growth. Macroeconomic policy in developing countries needs to turn toward medium-term productivity enhancements, managing inflationary pressures re-establishing the fiscal and monetary cushions that allowed most developing countries to come through the crisis so well. In contrast, activity in high income and some developing European countries continues to struggle with crisis-related problems, including banking-sector, fiscal and household restructuring. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section discusses recent developments in global production, trade, inflation, and financial markets, and presents updates of the World Bank's forecast for the global economy and developing countries. This is followed by a more detailed discussion of some of the risks and tensions in the current environment, and a short section of concluding remarks. Several annexes address regional and sartorial issues in much greater detail.
  • Publication
    Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2014 : Boosting Trade Competitiveness
    (Bangkok, 2014-06) World Bank
    This economic update provides an overview for 2013 and early 2014 in Malaysia and an analysis of structural trends in trade competitiveness. The economy overcame a weak start in 2013 to experience GDP growth through 2014. The improved performance was driven mainly by a recovery in exports, including of the long-ailing electrical and electronics sector. The outlook remains favorable and GDP is expected to continue growing through 2015. Growth will be sustained by positive external conditions, with foreign demand outweighing headwinds in domestic demand. Investment and imports of capital goods will remain robust as large projects move forward. Medium-term fiscal consolidation remains on track and the debt-to-GDP ratio has stabilized, but additional spending measures are needed for the Government to meet its 2014 deficit target. The central bank has signaled that it may have to tighten policy to avoid the build-up of financial imbalances. Labor markets are healthy, and Malaysia has enjoyed higher employment levels, real wage gains, and higher labor incomes. External risks to the economic outlook have receded, but the high share of Malaysia's foreign debt means it is sensitive to international volatility. Boosting exports to fully leverage the improved external environment will be critical for sustained growth. The report's analysis of Malaysia's trade competitiveness focuses on its ability to grow exports and the domestic value-added. Malaysia's exports had been faltering since before the Global Financial Crisis. The core electrical and electronics sector declined in the 2000s, and Malaysia's domestic value-added is relatively low due to limited domestic linkages. Exports of services have also lagged and remain an area of significant potential. Restrictive Government policies play a role in hindering export growth, although the Government has recently embarked on a liberalization of service sectors. Improving domestic value-added tasks will require addressing skill gaps. Finally, Malaysia's upcoming chairmanship in ASEAN offers concrete avenues to boost trade competitiveness.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Quarterly, June 2011
    (Washington, DC, 2011-06) World Bank
    Indonesia's economic performance through mid-2011 has been positive. Solid growth has been accompanied by further portfolio capital and foreign direct investment inflows. Public and financial sector balance sheets remain strong. However, events over the past quarter serve as a reminder of a number of Indonesia's ongoing policy challenges. At the same time, the launch of the government's master plan 2011-2025 has focused attention on the investments and policy reforms which can help Indonesia reach its future growth potential. Finally, heightened international risk aversion originating from the Greek debt crisis, and the potential market implications of any haircut, were it to occur, are a reminder of the external shocks which could prompt reversals of short-term capital flows to Indonesia. However, events over the past quarter are a reminder of the current challenges which are faced and the need to put in place, and implement, the policies and investments necessary for Indonesia to reach its potential as a leading global growth driver of the next few decades.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2010
    (Washington, DC, 2010-06) World Bank
    Market nervousness concerning the fiscal positions of several European high-income countries poses a new challenge for the world economy. This arises as the recovery is transitioning toward a more mature phase during which the influence of rebound factors (such as fiscal stimulus) fades, and gross domestic product (GDP) gains will increasingly depend on private investment and consumption. So far evolving financial developments in Europe have had limited effects on financial conditions in developing countries. Although global equity markets dropped between 8 and 17 percent, there has been little fallout on most developing-country risk premia. And despite a sharp deceleration in bond flows in May, year-to-date capital flows to developing countries during the first 5 months of 2010 are up 90 percent from the same period in 2009. The economic impact on long-term growth in developing countries of a forced pullback from growth-enhancing infrastructure and human-capital investment due to lower fiscal revenues, weaker official development assistance (ODA), and sluggish capital flows, are difficult to gauge, as are the effects on private sector growth of tighter financial sector regulations, and increased competition for capital from high-income sovereigns. Global economic prospects: crisis, finance and growth estimated that just the latter two factors could reduce developing country growth rates by between 0.2 and 0.7 percent for a period of 5 to 7 years.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Africa's Pulse, No. 29, April 2024: Tackling Inequality to Revitalize Growth and Reduce Poverty in Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-08) World Bank
    Economic growth is expected to rebound in Sub-Saharan Africa, supported by increased private consumption and declining inflation in 2024. However, this positive outlook remains fragile due to uncertain global economic conditions, low fiscal buffers, growing debt service obligation, costly external borrowing, and escalating conflict and violence, which continue to weigh on economic activity in the region. Despite the projected boost in growth, the pace of economic expansion in the region remains slow and insufficient to significantly affect poverty reduction. Structural inequality is at the core of these challenges and tackling it can help to restore growth and accelerate poverty reduction. While domestic resource mobilization and support from the international community can help alleviate the region's funding squeeze, investing in human capital, and strengthening local capacity for service delivery can build people's capacity to seize market opportunities. Policies that boost market access by addressing institutional distortions and market imperfections are also critical for fostering inclusive growth.
  • Publication
    Embedding Digital Finance in e-Commerce Platforms during the COVID-19 Pandemic
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12) World Bank
    This study provides an early assessment of the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on e-commerce platforms and digital financial services, identifying the opportunities, good practices, and key challenges that have emerged in different regions. The focus of the study is to evaluate the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on the use of e-commerce platforms across different regions and the role that digital financial services have played in the process. The emphasis is on digital and financial inclusion of consumers and small businesses and their impact on job creation and economic growth.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06) World Bank
    Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.
  • Publication
    Digitalizing SMEs to Boost Competitiveness
    (Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank
    While Malaysia’s digital economy had already been growing rapidly over the past decade, the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has further accelerated this trend. In particular, increased access to digital platforms has enabled businesses of all sizes to mitigate the crisis’ adverse impacts. At the same time, the depth and breadth of small and medium enterprise (SME) digitalization has remained limited, suggesting a growing risk of digital divide in the country. This report analyzes opportunities and challenges for Malaysian SMEs to better leverage digital tools and platforms to increase their productivity and competitiveness. It is structured around three complementary analytical pillars: (i) a digital business landscape diagnostic presenting the extent of digitalization and use of digital platforms among SMEs in traditional sectors, and the constraints that SMEs still face to digitalize; (ii) an institutional and policy mapping reviewing the government of Malaysia’s efforts to foster SME digitalization; and (iii) a digital market regulations assessment evaluating the adequacy of Malaysia’s digital regulatory environment, to identify shortcomings that may undermine SMEs’ capacity to access and benefit from the use of digital platforms. The analysis has been undertaken with a view to inform the implementation of the Malaysia Digital Blueprint (MyDIGITAL).
  • Publication
    Capacity Building as a Route to Export Market Expansion
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-12) Darova, Omella; Cusolito, Ana P.; McKenzie, David
    The limited market size of many small emerging economies is a key constraint to the growth of innovative small and medium enterprises. Exporting offers a potential solution, but firms may struggle to locate and appeal to foreign buyers. A six-country randomized experiment was conducted with 225 firms in the Western Balkans to test the effectiveness of 30 hours of live group-based training and 5 hours of one-on-one remote consulting in overcoming these constraints. Treated firms used techniques such as search engine optimization and improved Facebook content to increase their digital presence and better reach foreign customers. A year later, positive and significant impacts are found on the number of customers, and a significant intensive margin increase in export sales. Qualitative interviews suggest this improvement came from a combination of sector-specific advice on market expansion, and through an encouragement effect which gave entrepreneurs the confidence to try new sales strategies.