Publication: Global Migration Revisited: Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration
Date
2016-04
ISSN
Published
2016-04
Author(s)
Abstract
This paper re-examines the development
implications of international migration focusing on two
issues: how the costs and benefits of migration change over
time, and the significance of South-South migration for
development. First, the analysis finds that although greater
migration could push down the wages of native workers of
advanced countries in the short run, these wages eventually
recover. This pattern would be mostly caused by the
beneficial effect of additional labor on the real returns on
capital and fostering faster capital formation. Additional
South-North migration could favor capital income recipients
and reduces labor income in host regions in the short run.
In contrast, in sending countries, capital owners could
experience lower incomes while wages rise. Globally, the
welfare gains of new migrants could be expected to exceed
the losses of old migrants by a wide margin. The remaining
natives in sending countries could enjoy a net increase in
remittances as well as an increase in labor income, although
income from capital might decline. Second, in a hypothetical
scenario with lower South-South migration, the implied
losses of remittance income could lead to substantially
lower welfare in developing countries. Although the wage
differentials among developing countries tend to be smaller
relative to their wage differentials with high-income
countries, South-South migrants make substantial
contributions to remittances.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Ahmed, S. Amer; Go, Delfin S.; Willenbockel, Dirk. 2016. Global Migration Revisited: Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7628. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24200 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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