Publication: Tax Evasion and the Contribution-Benefit Link: The Case of Maternity Benefits
Loading...
Date
2024-12-19
ISSN
Published
2024-12-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper studies tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link in the context of maternity benefits in Hungary. Earnings and employment patterns suggest pre-pregnancy underreporting, followed by formalization of some earnings and employment during pregnancy to increase benefits. Reported earnings in small, domestic, and less productive firms bunch at the minimum wage before pregnancy and the benefit-maximizing threshold during pregnancy. Using a policy reform, the paper shows that the size of the reporting response tracks changing reporting incentives. Increases in pre-childbirth reported earnings are partially sticky after maternity leave. The results indicate that linking benefits to contributions can reduce tax evasion and improve formalization.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Bíró, Anikó; Elek, Péter; Prinz, Dániel; Sándor, László. 2024. Tax Evasion and the Contribution-Benefit Link: The Case of Maternity Benefits. Policy Research Working Paper; 11003. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42563 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Geopolitics and the World Trading System(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23)Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.Publication Chinese Imports and Industrialization in Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-12)The rise of China in the global economy has been linked with negative impacts on employment across many high- and middle-income countries. However, evidence for African countries is limited. This paper investigates the causal relationship between Chinese imports and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. Imports may harm domestic firms through a revenue effect (lower market shares) or benefit them, indirectly if competition spurs innovation or directly through access to better quality or cheaper inputs. The analysis shows that a one unit increase in import penetration leads to a 15.2 percent increase in industry employment. The inputs effect is disentangled from the other two effects by decomposing total Chinese imports by their end-use category using input-output tables. The evidence shows that imported intermediate inputs are driving the employment gains. The findings are consistent with the idea that employment gains are a result of productivity gains and increases in capacity utilization. These employment gains appear to benefit large firms and labor-intensive industries disproportionately.Publication VAT Exemptions, Embedded Tax, and Unintended Consequences(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-15)The value-added tax (VAT) has proved to be a highly effective tool at raising revenue in developed and developing countries alike. However, the effective operation of the VAT breaks down in the presence of exemptions. Unlike zero rates, exemptions deny input tax credits, thereby increasing production costs and resulting in VAT being embedded within the prices of goods and services. This paper develops a VAT model based on input-output table and household budget survey data for 29 European countries to examine the effects of VAT exemptions on final prices and to assess the merits of their use. Simulation results show that exemptions suffer from the same targeting problems as reduced VAT rates, but, in addition, they are non-transparent and have unpredictable and counterproductive indirect effects. These effects are in addition to the well-known distortionary impact of exemptions on production decisions, and their creation of incentives to self-supply. The paper concludes that the use of exemptions should be limited to addressing pragmatic concerns, such as the disproportionate compliance costs of small businesses and the practical difficulty in taxing margin-based financial services.Publication Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.Publication Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2025-04-04)This paper introduces a new approach to measuring Global Value Chains (GVC), crucial for informed policy-making. It features a tripartite classification (backward, forward, and two-sided) covering trade and production data. The findings indicate that traditional trade-based GVC metrics significantly underestimate global GVC activity, especially in sectors like services and upstream manufacturing, and overstate risks in early trade liberalization stages. Additionally, conventional backward-forward classifications over-estimate backward linkages. The paper further applies these measures empirically to assess how GVC participation mediates the impact of demand shocks on domestic output, highlighting both the exposure and stabilizing potential of GVC integration. These new measures are comprehensively available on the World Bank’s WITS Platform, providing a key resource for GVC analysis.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Review of Superannuation Benefit Programs in Sri Lanka(Washington, DC, 2000-05-19)This report examines the current system of old age income security in Sri Lanka to determine whether it provides reasonable pension for retirees. It also explores the effects of the current system on labor market mobility and the fiscal deficit and looks at the potential for establishing greater demand for debt, particularly long-term debt, and equity securities through the strengthening of contractual savings. The focus of this note has been to review the formal systems of retirement savings provision currently in place in Sri Lanka, particularly from the perspective of cost effectiveness and administrative efficiency, and to ascertain policy options available to the government of Sri Lanka. The report outlines key objectives which would address material shortcomings in the present system, proposes potential reform strategy components, and explores measures which might assist in achieving these goals.Publication The Foreign-born Population in the European Union and Its Contribution to National Tax and Benefit Systems : Some Insights from Recent Household Survey Data(2009-04-01)Despite the purported surge in internal migration following the 2004 enlargement of the European Union, data from the 2006 European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions show that internal migrants are a relatively small share of the European Union's population. Depending on the exact definition used, only about 1 to 2 percent of the population of European Union-13 countries (members prior to the 2004 enlargement, not including Germany and Luxembourg) were born in other European Union countries, while the corresponding share for European Union-4 countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia) is even lower. By contrast, about 6 percent of the population of European Union-13 countries was born outside the European Union. On examining the demographic and socio-economic background of the migrant population (both from within as well as outside the European Union), this paper finds that migrants tend to include a concentration of both low as well as highly educated workers. Both sets of migrants uniformly contribute to raising the working-age population of receiving countries. Using data on average incomes and taxes paid and benefits received by migrant and non-migrant households, the authors find no evidence to support the contention that migrant workers contribute much less in taxes than the native-born population, or consume significantly higher benefits. On the contrary, our calculations suggest that migrant workers make a net contribution of approximately 42 billion euros to the national tax and benefit systems of European Union-13 countries.Publication The Decumulation (Payout) Phase of Defined Contribution Pillars : Policy Issues in the Provision of Annuities and Other Benefits(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-10)Most countries reforming their pension system, focus more on the accumulation phase, than on the decumulation (pay-out), because the number of beneficiaries is likely to be small initially, especially if older workers are discouraged from joining the new system. Policymakers place a priority on the new accumulation system being administratively efficient, and well regulated. But the decumulation phase must also be well organized, and efficient. The purpose of pension systems is, after all, to pay retirement benefits - old age, survivor, and disability pensions. The authors argue that: 1) Pay-out arrangements are likely to evolve gradually, through trial and error, as problems are discovered and tackled. 2) Adverse selection may not be as great a problem as is sometimes thought. 3) Many other annuity, and insurance market problems have yet to be solved, and policies must be formulated to make these markets work as well. The under-development of voluntary annuity markets is only partly explained by adverse selection, argue the authors. Other factors are also at work: the bequest, and precautionary motives for saving; individuals' myopia and ignorance; mistrust of insurance companies; the "luxury good" nature of annuities; tax policies that favor lump sum withdrawals; and, last but not least, public policies (such as the offer of social security pensions and the encouragement of occupational pension plans) that tend to crowd out individual annuities. The long-term success of pension reform depends on vigorous efforts to develop the insurance industry. Weak and under-developed in most developing countries, the insurance industry should play a central role in providing old age, survivor, and disability benefits. Many policy issues require careful thought, and extensive empirical analysis: Should annuitization be mandatory, and at what level? Should indexed (or "real") annuities be required? Should variable annuities be permitted, or encouraged? Should joint annuities be required? How much "group rating" and "risk classification" should be permitted?Publication Pension Risk and Risk Based Supervision in Defined Contribution Pension Funds(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-03-18)The main goal of any pension system is to ensure that members receive an adequate pension income when they retire. Whilst traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plans set out what that pension income will be in advance and then strive to deliver it, the growing number of defined contribution (DC) plans accumulates a sum of assets which can then be turned into a pension income on retirement. However, the amount of this retirement income is not set in advance. In the absence of a proper regulatory framework, feature n DC plans leads to a focus by not only pension providers, but also regulators and pension plan members themselves on the short-term accumulation of pension assets rather than the longer-term goal of securing an adequate retirement income. The paper is organized as follows: chapter two discusses the origins of risks based supervision and discusses the role of capital in the alignment of incentives in financial institutions. Chapter three discusses the concept of risk based supervision for pension funds, and its limitations in the case of DC pension schemes. Chapter four discusses the effectiveness of RBS schemes in DC systems in emerging economies, and the last section provides some lessons learned.Publication Pension Risk and Risk-Based Supervision in Defined Contribution Pension Funds(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-03)Defined contribution pension systems have faced criticism in the wake of the financial and economic crisis for not delivering adequate and sustainable pension incomes at retirement. Much of the problem has centered around the misalignment of pension fund management companies and the interests of pension fund members, with the focus on short-term volatility rather than delivering adequate pension income over the long term. Although pension fund supervisors in emerging economies have attempted to correct for these market failures, they have not focused sufficiently on the ultimate long-term pension income objective. The paper suggests that in order to have a meaningful impact on future pensions, the supervision of defined contribution pension systems needs to take a more proactive role in minimizing pension risk. This objective would require ensuring that investment risks are aligned with the probability of achieving a target pension at retirement age. The paper also suggests that a proper institutional design of the pension fund industry and intensive use of market surveillance are efficient tools for dealing with most of the operational risks of funded pension fund schemes in emerging economies.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17)Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.Publication Manual de Analítica Gubernamental(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-26)El Manual de Analítica Gubernamental (Government Analytics Handbook) presenta evidencia innovadora e ideas de profesionales sobre cómo aprovechar los datos para fortalecer la administración pública. Abarca una amplia gama de fuentes de microdatos —como datos administrativos y encuestas de empleados públicos—, así como herramientas y recursos para realizar los análisis, para transformar la capacidad de los gobiernos para adoptar un enfoque basado en datos para diagnosticar y mejorar el funcionamiento de las organizaciones públicas. Esta versión ha sido traducida por el Centro Latinoamericano de Administración para el Desarrollo (CLAD) y contiene una selección de siete capítulos que abordan temas fundamentales para América América Latina y el Caribe.Publication Financial Structure and Economic Development : Firm, Industry, and Country Evidence(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-08)The authors explore the relationship between financial structure - the degree to which a financial system is market- or bank-based - and economic development. They use three methodologies: 1) The cross-country approach uses cross-country data to assess whether economies grow faster with market- or bank-based systems. 2) The industry approach uses a country-industry panel to assess whether industries that depend heavily on external financing grow faster in market- or ban-based financial systems, and whether financial structure influences the rate at which new firms are created. 3) The firm-level approach uses firm-level data across a broad selection of countries to test whether firms are more likely to grow beyond the rate predicted by internal resources, and short-term borrowings in market- or bank-based financial systems. The cross-country regressions, the industry panel estimations, and the firm-level analyses, provide remarkably consistent conclusions: a) Financial structure is not an analytically useful way to distinguish financial systems. b) Financial structure does not help us understand economic growth, industrial performance, or firm expansion. c) The results are inconsistent with both market-based and bank-based views. In other words, economies do not grow faster, industries dependent on external financing do not expand faster, new firms are not created more easily, firms' access to external finance is not greater, and, firms do not grow faster in either market- or bank-based financial systems. The authors find overwhelming evidence that the overall level of financial development, and the legal environment in which financial intermediaries, and markets operate, critically influence economic development.Publication Understanding Income Security for Older Adults - Rethink Social Protection and Jobs in an Actively Aging World(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-14)The note first discusses the main pillars of financial securityat older ages before focusing on the status of contributory and noncontributory (orsocial) pension systems in developing countries. It highlights worrying under-coverage ofcontributory pension systems in the face of persistent labor market informality, as well asthe rise of social pensions and innovative informal sector matching schemes in response,and the trade-offs between coverage, adequacy and sustainability of pension systems. Itthen reviews World Bank support on the old age financial protection agenda, includingdifferent forms of budget support and investment lending, policy advisory and analyticalwork, capacity building and technical assistance (TA), and convening. It concludes bynoting the need to broaden the policy dialogue to wider dimensions of old age financialwell-being, as well as innovating with public sector and market instruments which candiversify sources of financial security at older ages.Publication Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Review, October 2024: Taxing Wealth for Equity and Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-09)The report highlights the progress made on inflation and, despite some resistance in the last mile, the resulting fall in interest rates that will ease pressures on debt service and investment. However, growth is projected to remain low, debt remains high, private and public investment is depressed, and the region appears to be missing the boat on nearshoring FDI. The need to generate more fiscal space, reduce the high corporate tax burden, and mitigate persistent inequality have moved wealth taxes to center stage. But traditional wealth taxes on financial assets face challenges due to the ease of moving and hiding assets which will be difficult to control without elusive global coordination. A viable alternative is a tax on real estate which is less mobile, easier to track, and less of a distortionary burden on economic activity, given the low initial rates. Property taxes also have the potential to reduce the excessive dependence of subnational governments on federal transfers. For property taxes to play a greater role, there must be improvements in property valuation which can be engineered through the use of digital platforms and centralized land registries.