Publication: Reranking and Pro-poor Growth: Decompositions for China and Vietnam
Abstract
Reranking in the move from one income distribution to another makes it impossible to infer from changes in Lorenz and generalised Lorenz curves how income growth among those toward the bottom of the initial income distribution compares to that among those toward the top, and whether there has been income growth among those who were initially poor. Decompositions allowing for reranking indicate that economic growth in China and Vietnam has been better for households who were initially poor than changes in the Lorenz and generalised Lorenz curve and poverty growth curve would suggest.
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Publication Was Vietnam's Economic Growth in the 1990s Pro-poor? An Analysis of Panel Data from Vietnam(2011)International aid agencies and almost all economists agree that economic growth is necessary for reducing poverty, yet some economists question whether it is sufficient for poverty reduction. Vietnam enjoyed rapid economic growth in the 1990s, but a modest increase in inequality during that decade raises the possibility that the poor in Vietnam benefited little from that growth. This article examines the extent to which Vietnam's economic growth has been "pro-poor," giving particular attention to two issues. The first is the appropriate comparison group. 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Indeed, comparisons of the same people over time indicate that per capita expenditures of the poor increased much more rapidly than those of the nonpoor, although failure to correct for measurement error exaggerates this result.Publication Income Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction : A Case Study of Eight Provinces in China(2009)This paper examines the growth performance and income inequality in eight Chinese provinces during the period of 1989-2004 using the China Health and Nutrition Survey data. It shows that income grew for all segments of the population, and as a result, poverty incidence has fallen. However, income growth has been uneven, most rapidly in coastal areas, and among the educated. A decomposition analysis based on household income determination suggests that income growth can largely be attributed to the increase in returns to education and to the shift of employment into secondary and tertiary sectors.Publication Inclusive Growth toward a Harmonious Society in the People's Republic of China: An Overview(2008)This overview introduces the background of the study "Inclusive Growth toward a Harmonious Society in the People's Republic of China (PRC)", under which all the papers in this special volume were prepared. It summarizes key findings of these papers as grouped into three parts: (i) Inclusive Growth and Policy Options; (ii) Balancing Efficiency and Equity Objectives: International Experiences; and (iii) Empirical Analysis of Income Inequalities in the PRC. In concluding, this overview argues that building a harmonious society is the most important development challenge that the PRC faces, and that a development strategy anchored on inclusive growth provides an effective approach to addressing this issue.Publication How Will Growth in China and India Affect the World Economy?(2009)China and India are rapidly growing, labor-abundant economies with very different export mixes. China is more integrated into global production sharing for manufactures, while services exports are more important for India. Even assuming India integrates more comprehensively into global production chains, there will be opportunities for rapid growth in both countries. Improvement in the range and quality of their exports can create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and can offset the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. Most countries will need to respond to increased competition in some sectors, and to greater opportunities in others.Publication Pro-poor Growth: Explaining the Cross-Country Variation in the Growth Elasticity of Poverty(2008)The aim of this paper is to analyse the cross-country variation in the growth elasticity of poverty across a sample of developing countries during the period from 1990 to 2000. In order to identify variables that may explain the cross-country variation in the growth elasticity of poverty, the paper sets up a theoretical framework. Subsequently, the explanatory power of these variables is tested empirically by panel data econometric analysis. For a sample of 52 low and middle income countries, it is found that the level of initial income inequality, credit available to the private sector, literacy, the extent of business regulations and trade openness are important determinants of the growth elasticity of poverty. Countries that reduce regulatory burdens, improve literacy, increase access to finance, undertake land reforms (asset redistribution), and provide safety nets while liberalizing trade can create more growth and ensure that it is pro-poor. The paper identifies variables (at a cross-country level) that may guide the conscious policies which create pro-poor growth.
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