Publication: Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialised Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants
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Date
2008
ISSN
00225258
Published
2008
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This paper examines the relationship between traffic fatalities and income for vehicle occupants and pedestrians and investigates factors underlying the decline in fatalities per vehicle kilometre travelled (VKT) using panel data for 32 countries from 1963-2002. Results suggest the downward-sloping portion of the curve relating traffic fatalities per capita to per capita income is due primarily to improved pedestrian safety (Kopits and Cropper, 2005a). More detailed models shed light on factors influencing pedestrian fatalities/VKT but some of the long-term improvement remains unexplained. Declines in occupant fatalities/VKT are explained primarily by reductions in alcohol abuse, improved medical services, and fewer young drivers.
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Publication Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-08)This paper examines whether the relationship between traffic fatalities and per capita income is the same for different classes of road users and investigates the factors underlying the decline in fatalities per vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) observed in high-income countries over recent decades. Formal models of traffic fatalities are developed for vehicle occupants and pedestrians. Reduced-form approximations to these models are estimated using panel data for 32 high-income countries over 1964-2002. The results suggest that the downward-sloping portion of the curve relating traffic fatalities per capita to per capita income is due primarily to improved pedestrian safety. The more detailed models shed light on some factors influencing pedestrian fatalities per VKT, but much of the reduction in pedestrian fatalities remains unexplained. Increased motorization and a reduction in the proportion of young drivers in the population, however, clearly played a role. In contrast to pedestrian fatalities, occupant fatalities do not show a significant decline with income. What does explain declines in occupant fatalities per VKT are reductions in alcohol abuse and improved medical services, and a reduction in young drivers. The importance of demographic factors suggests that in countries where young persons (between 15 and 24 years of age) comprise an increasing share of the driving population, adopting policies to improve young driver education and reduce speeds will be crucial.Publication Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-04)The authors examine the impact of income growth on the death rate due to traffic fatalities, as well as on fatalities per motor vehicle and on the motorization rate (vehicles/population) using panel data from 1963-99 for 88 countries. Specifically, they estimate fixed effects models for fatalities/population, vehicles/population, and fatalities/vehicles and use these models to project traffic fatalities and the stock of motor vehicles to 2020.The relationship between motor vehicle fatality rate and per capita income at first increases with per capita income, reaches a peak, and then declines. This is because at low income levels the rate of increase in motor vehicles outpaces the decline in fatalities per motor vehicle. At higher income levels, the reverse occurs. The income level at which per capita traffic fatalities peaks is approximately $8,600 in 1985 international dollars. This is within the range of income at which other externalities, such as air and water pollution, have been found to peak. Projections of future traffic fatalities suggest that the global road death toll will grow by approximately 66 percent between 2000 and 2020. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world-a decline in fatalities in high-income countries of approximately 28 percent versus an increase in fatalities of almost 92 percent in China and 147 percent in India. The authors also predict that the fatality rate will rise to approximately 2 per 10,000 persons in developing countries by 2020, while it will fall to less than 1 per 10,000 in high-income countries.Publication The Impact of Policies to Control Motor Vehicle Emissions in Mumbai, India(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-11)This paper examines the impact of measures to reduce emissions from passenger transport, specifically buses, cars, and two-wheelers in Mumbai. These include converting diesel buses to compressed natural gas (CNG), as the Indian Supreme Court required in Delhi, which would necessitate an increase in bus fares to cover the cost of pollution controls. The authors model an increase in the price of gasoline, which should affect the ownership and use of cars and two-wheelers, as well as imposing a license fee on cars to retard growth in car ownership. The impact of each policy on emissions depends not only on how the policy affects the mode that is regulated, but on shifts to other modes. The results suggest that the most effective policy to reduce emissions from passenger vehicles-in terms of the total number of tons of PM10 (particulate matter that measure less than or equal to 10 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter) reduced-is to convert diesel buses to CNG. The conversion of 3,391 diesel buses to CNG would result in an emissions reduction of 663 tons of PM10 a year, 14 percent of total emissions from transport. The bus conversion program passes the cost-benefit test. In contrast, the results suggest the elasticities of emissions from transport with respect to a gasoline tax and a tax on vehicle ownership are -0.04 and -0.10 respectively. As a consequence, it would take substantial increases in the gasoline tax or vehicle ownership tax to produce reductions in emissions similar to the bus conversion program. These results, however, reflect the low shares of cars and two-wheelers in the Mumbai emissions inventory and need not apply to cities, such as Delhi, where these shares are higher.Publication Treatment of Pedestrian and Non-Motorised Traffic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)Pedestrians and Non-Motorized Traffic vehicles (NMTs) are part of the complete transport scene and in some cases form a very important aspect of that scene. As with the motorized sector of the transport market, this sector will experience positive and negative impacts as a consequence of a transport investment and the sector therefore needs to be included within the appraisal of that investment. Wheeled NMTs (e.g. bicycles and rickshaws) can experience benefits as smoother roads reduce operating costs and journey times, whether that be in an urban or rural environment. New roads and smoother roads can also lead to mode switching from pedestrian modes to either wheeled NMTs or motorized vehicles, giving both journey time and operating cost savings. An increase in the speed of traffic on an upgraded road may result in an increase in the seriousness of road accidents (i.e. an increase in the average number of fatalities per accident), with pedestrians and NMTs being the vulnerable road user groups. In some situations increases in capacity of urban intersections or urban arterials (e.g. construction of an urban motorway or freeway) may reduce the amount of road space available for NMTs thereby imposing costs (both travel time and operating costs) on that road user group. As with motorized transport, pedestrians and NMTs may benefit from a transport investment through operating cost savings, travel time savings, and accident and safety impacts. The inclusion of benefits to pedestrians and NMTs can form a significant proportion of the total scheme benefits for investments such as low volume rural roads.Publication Results in the Latin America and Caribbean Region(Washington, DC, 2013-02)A focus on development results is at the heart of the Latin America and Caribbean Region s approach to delivering programs and policy advice with partners in middle-income and low income countries alike. Through knowledge, convening activities, and financial services we strive to help people across the region create better opportunities and build a better future for themselves, their families and their country. Documenting, measuring and evaluating results of what we do, helps us and our partners to engage more effectively, learn from our experiences and apply lessons to the design and implementation of future interventions. This collection of result stories shows our continuous efforts to adopt and integrate technical analysis, timely policy advice, and a variety of financial instruments into programs that are aligned with client priorities. Results show the increased demand and the effectiveness of peer-to-peer learning, have led to a scaling up our support for South-South exchange activities and the use our convening power to support successful partnerships and mobilize additional resources to finance development work.
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