Publication: Learning When Schools Shutdown: Impacts of H1N1 Outbreak on Learning Loss and Learning Gaps
Loading...
Published
2024-08-27
ISSN
Date
2024-08-27
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper contributes to the growing body of evidence on the effects of school closures on learning outcomes, focusing on a recent event in a developing country. During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic outbreak, a significant number of public schools in São Paulo state, Brazil, extended the winter break by two to three weeks. By employing double- and triple-difference estimates, the study reveals that even such a relatively short period of school closure can result in a learning deficit equivalent to six to nine weeks of regular schooling. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the adverse impacts were more pronounced among students performing below the expected proficiency level in math, suggesting disproportionate effects on schools with a higher percentage of academically challenged students. Moreover, the research underscores the role of school decentralization, revealing that municipal schools exhibited greater resilience in mitigating the negative shock compared to state-run schools. This observation aligns with the broader evidence highlighting the advantages of decentralized governance structures in responding to crises within the education sector.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Amorim, Vivian; Piza, Caio; Lautharte Jr., Ildo José. 2024. Learning When Schools Shutdown: Impacts of H1N1 Outbreak on Learning Loss and Learning Gaps. Policy Research Working Paper; 10879. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42095 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18)This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.Publication The Lasting Effects of Working while in School(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-18)This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the long-term effects of work-study programs, leveraging a randomized lottery design from a national program in Uruguay. Participation leads to a persistent 11 percent increase in formal labor earnings, observable seven years after the program. Effects are stronger for youth who participate during pivotal educational transitions and are larger for vulnerable youth and men, while remaining positive for women and non-vulnerable youth. The program is highly cost-effective, with average impacts exceeding those of job training programs and comparable to early childhood investments.Publication It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22)As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Effect of the H1N1 Pandemic on Learning(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The analysis indicates that the extension of the winter break, adopted in 13 municipalities of the state of Sao Paulo during the H1N1 pandemic, significantly decreased learning outcome among students in the 5th grade of elementary school (ES). The decrease in math performance resulting from the two to three weeks winter break extension is equivalent to two months of learning. The impacts were more pronounced among schools in the bottom quintile of test score distribution, which suggests that the consequences were more severe among the most vulnerable groups. These results suggest that the effect of COVID-19 (coronavirus) will be relevant, and remedial policies will be required to mitigate learning losses.Publication Experimental Evaluation of a Financial Education Program in Elementary and Middle School Grades(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-18)This paper investigates whether providing financial education in elementary and middle school grades improves students' financial proficiency and actual behavior. It uses a cluster randomized control trial to evaluate a pilot program implemented in 101 Brazilian municipal schools in 2015. The findings show positive impacts on financial proficiency, mainly among middle school students, and suggestive evidence of improvements in short-term behavioral outcomes. However, the analysis indicates that the program did not impact students' school achievements in both the short and longer terms, which suggests that the program's effects were not strong enough to shift students' behavior decisions.Publication The Short- and Longer-Term Effects of a Child Labor Ban(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-11-08)This paper investigates whether the 1998 Brazilian law that increased the minimum employment age from 14 to 16 lowered child labor and increased school attendance and whether those effects persisted beyond age 16. Using a regression discontinuity design, the results indicate that the ban had a significant impact on urban boys, a cohort that represents half of all paid child labor in Brazil. This cohort had a 35 percent decrease in paid labor, driven mainly by a decrease in informal work, and an 11 percent increase in the share of those only attending school. In addition, there is evidence that these effects persist past the age of enforcement where the affected cohort was less likely to work and more likely to be only attending school beyond age 16. Overall, the results suggest that enforced bans on child labor can have significant immediate and persistent impacts on affected populations.Publication Confronting the Learning Crisis(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)Before the COVID-19 pandemic, learning poverty, defined as the share of children younger than 10 years of age who have not achieved minimum reading proficiency, as adjusted by the proportion of children who are out of school, stood at 91 percent in low-income countries compared to 9 percent in high-income countries. The school shutdowns implemented in response to the pandemic aggravated learning losses while extending and deepening a long-standing development challenge of low learning outcomes and persistent learning poverty in the basic education systems of low- and middle-income countries. Improving the quality of basic education and learning outcomes for all is a much more difficult and expensive pursuit than improving access to education for all. The issues involved in improving the quality of basic education are multilayered, including social, structural, logistical, and institutional matters that require a sophisticated analysis, understanding, and approach. This evaluation assesses the World Bank’s contribution to improving learning outcomes in basic education—defined as primary and lower secondary education— over the 2012–22 decade. It pays particular attention to the extent to which the World Bank has adopted a systems approach to its support for basic education as advocated in Learning for All: Investing in People’s Knowledge and Skills to Promote Development—World Bank Group Education Strategy 2020 and as reinforced since the publication of the 2018 World Development Report. Drawing on portfolio and document analyses, interviews, country case studies, literature, and secondary data analysis, the evaluation identifies lessons and presents recommendations to inform any future education sector strategy.Publication The Gambia Early Childhood Development(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)This report presents an analysis of the early childhood development (ECD) programs and policies that affect young children in the Gambia and recommendations to move forward. This report is part of a series of reports prepared by the World Bank using the systems approach for better education results (SABER) - ECD framework and includes analysis of early learning, health, nutrition, and social and child protection policies, and interventions in the Gambia, along with regional and international comparisons.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Bank Annual Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25)This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Digital-in-Health(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-18)Technology and data are integral to daily life. As health systems face increasing demands to deliver new, more, better, and seamless services affordable to all people, data and technology are essential. With the potential and perils of innovations like artificial intelligence the future of health care is expected to be technology-embedded and data-linked. This shift involves expanding the focus from digitization of health data to integrating digital and health as one: Digital-in-Health. The World Bank’s report, Digital-in-Health: Unlocking the Value for Everyone, calls for a new digital-in-health approach where digital technology and data are infused into every aspect of health systems management and health service delivery for better health outcomes. The report proposes ten recommendations across three priority areas for governments to invest in: prioritize, connect and scale.