Publication: Kenya Economic Update, December 2011: Navigating the Storm, Delivering the Promise with a Special Focus on Kenya's Momentous Devolution
Loading...
Published
2011-12
ISSN
Date
2017-05-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Kenya is entering a decisive year. Three main developments will make 2012 extraordinary. First, Kenya will hold national elections for the first time since the traumatic post-election violence of 2007-08, which ended Kenya's high growth momentum abruptly. Second, Kenya's economy will need to navigate through a severe economic storm, which could well become a hurricane, especially if Europe enters into a recession. Third, the country will implement its most ambitious governance reforms ever, namely the devolution of responsibility to forty-seven new counties. Kenya's policy makers will need to display tremendous skill and steadfast leadership in order to balance the need for fiscal prudence, with ensuring that resource flows to new local governments are sufficient to meet their needs. High expectations of the promise of devolution need to be met by equally high quality planning and execution of its delivery. Kenya will enter 2012 from a weaker-than expected economic position. Kenya's economy is navigating rough economic waters, where existing structural weaknesses have been compounded by short-term shocks. The most visible sign of Kenya's economic challenge is the depreciating shilling, which reached an all time low against the US Dollar in October 2011. The elements behind this situation are high international food and fuel prices, the drought compounded by conflict in the horn of Africa, the Euro crisis, widening fiscal and current account deficits, and major inefficiencies in Kenya's agriculture sector. The recent developments are also undermining one of Kenya's main strengths over the last decade: the credibility and predictability of its macroeconomic policies.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2011. Kenya Economic Update, December 2011: Navigating the Storm, Delivering the Promise with a Special Focus on Kenya's Momentous Devolution. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26664 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Rwanda Economic Update, May 2013 : Maintaining Momentum with a Special Focus on Rwanda's Pathway Out of Poverty(Washington, DC, 2013-05)The Rwanda economic update reports and synthesizes recent economic developments and places them in a medium term and global context. It analyzes the implications of these developments and policies for the outlook of Rwanda's economy. In this way, these reports contribute to the implementation of the Bank's Africa strategy. The economic update reports cover in each edition a special feature on a selected topic. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders and other market participants, and the community of analysts, engaged in Rwanda's economy. Rwanda's economy is estimated to have grown by a robust 8 percent in 2012, continuing a decade-long period of strong economic growth. The economic expansion was driven by buoyant private sector activity, particularly in the services sector, where growth exceeded expectations. This strong economic performance has allowed Rwanda to claim for the third year in a row, the title of the fastest growing economy in the East African Community. The domestic economy remained strong despite an estimated 20 percent reduction in Official Donor Assistance (ODA) in 2012, following the intensifying of the conflict in Eastern Congo. Providing jobs to the two million people who will enter the workforce in the decade to come will be crucial to sustaining Rwanda's achievements.Publication Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, October 2012 : Looking Ahead After a Year in Transition(Washington, DC, 2012-10-01)The Arab Republic of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and the Republic of Yemen are recovering after a period of economic growth decelerations accompanying the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011. Economic recovery was relatively quick, with industrial production recovering in a matter of months and, in the cases of Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were smaller than the average growth declines observed around the year of transition during past transitions to democracy. Importantly, the growth decelerations and recovery have taken place in a weak global environment, with events in the Euro zone posing particular challenges to Tunisia, and to a lesser extent, Egypt. The report focuses on the economic developments and short-term outlook for four Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economies, Tunisia, Egypt, the Republic of Yemen and Libya. These four countries are given special attention because each of them experienced a revolution and a major political change in 2011 and is undergoing a process of political transition toward democracy. The sudden change had important economic consequences. While other countries in the Middle East and North Africa are undergoing political change, the economic ramifications were muted as compared with the changes observed in the four MENA post-revolutionary economies.Publication Integration with the Global Economy(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)This paper provides an extensive case study of the Turkish automotive and the consumer electronics industries. Despite a macroeconomic environment that inhibits investment and growth, both industries have achieved remarkable output and productivity growth since the early 1990s. Although there are similarities between the performances of the two industries, there are significant differences between their structures, links with domestic suppliers, technological orientation, and modes of integration with the global economy. The automobile industry is dominated by multinational companies, has a strong domestic supplier base, and has seized the opportunities opened up by the Customs Union by investing in new product and process technology and learning. The consumer electronics industry is dominated by a few, large, domestic firms, and has become competitive in the European market thanks to its geographical proximity, productive domestic labor, and focus on a protected and technologically mature segment of the market, which also helps explain the recent decline in industry's fortunes. These industries could have performed even better had more responsive macroeconomic policies been adopted. It is certain that governments could be more responsive only if far-reaching political/institutional reforms are undertaken by changing the constitution and current political party and election laws in order to establish public control over the political elites.Publication Egypt Economic Monitoring Note, Fall 2012(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-09)Egypt is in a precarious economic situation reflecting a difficult external environment, political uncertainty, and weak economic policies. International reserves have been declining rapidly to a low level, driven by a sizeable current account deficit and large capital outflows. Large spending increases are driving up the fiscal deficit to unsustainable levels, with high real interest rates and weak growth adding to the mounting debt burden. And weak growth is fueling social pressures. Strong financial support from Arab bilateral donors has been holding the country afloat so far, but the leaking cannot continue much longer and the authorities have been forced to seek support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other donors. Egypt is in a precarious economic situation reflecting a difficult external environment, political uncertainty, and weak economic policies. International reserves have been declining rapidly to a low level, driven by a sizeable current account deficit and large capital outflows. Large spending increases are driving up the fiscal deficit to unsustainable levels, with high real interest rates and weak growth adding to the mounting debt burden. And weak growth is fueling social pressures. Strong financial support from Arab bilateral donors has been holding the country afloat so far, but the leaking cannot continue much longer and the authorities have been forced to seek support from the IMF and other donors.Publication Rwanda Economic Update, December 2013 : Seizing Opportunities for Growth(Washington, DC, 2013-12)Rwanda's economic growth slowed in the first half of 2013. Weighed by a slowdown in domestic demand, the economy grew at a modest rate. Decelerating GDP growth mirrored the low growth of services and was the lowest half-year growth rate since 2010, when the domestic economy was hard hit by the combination of the global financial crisis and a domestic credit crunch. This edition of the Rwanda Economic Update examines three key issues: 1) the cause for the economic slowdown; 2) whether the economic slowdown is temporary, or the beginning of further deceleration, and the forecasted growth for 2014; and 3) policy options for the authorities.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.