Publication: Kenya Economic Update, December 2010: Kenya at the Tipping Point?
Loading...
Published
2010-12
ISSN
Date
2017-08-14
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Kenya may be at a "tipping point," the theme of the third Kenya economic update which has a special focus on the transformative impact of information and communication technology (ICT) and mobile money. Over the last decade, ICT has outperformed all others sectors growing at an average of 20 percent per year. The benefits of ICT are starting to be felt in other sectors, and have contributed to the conditions for Kenya to reach this tipping point. Kenya has entered the new decade with renewed and stronger than expected growth. The passing of the new constitution, continued strong macroeconomic policies, and a favorable regional environment have created a new positive economic momentum. Kenya may again be positioned to experience high growth. Over the last three decades Kenya has experienced only two short episodes when economic growth exceeded five percent and was sustained for at least three consecutive years: 1986-88, and 2004-2007. Is Kenya again at the verge of experiencing another growth spurt? Will it last longer and go deeper than the previous two episodes?
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2010. Kenya Economic Update, December 2010: Kenya at the Tipping Point?. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27776 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Pakistan Economic Update, June 2011(Washington, DC, 2011-06)For the last three years, Pakistan has been making efforts to revive strong and sustained growth. The economy was badly destabilized by the turmoil in the international commodity and financial markets in 2007-2008 and the lack of adequate domestic policy responses to manage those external shocks. The task of stabilizing the economy and reviving the economic recovery has been made difficult by an adverse security situation and domestic politics that has prevented the government from taking timely required, but difficult, stabilization measures. The devastating floods in July-August last year and the recent increase in international oil and food prices have exacerbated the problem. In addition, Pakistan continues to face significant political challenges in achieving durable development. The domestic security situation as a result of campaign against terrorism is a direct and indirect tax on the costs of economic activity and the achievement of the kinds of social stability required to promote a supportive environment for businesses.Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.Publication Republic of Tajikistan - Country Economic Memorandum : Tajikistan’s Quest for Growth: Stimulating Private Investment(World Bank, 2011-01-01)The Tajik government in its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for 2010-12 set an ambitious target of doubling Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a decade. Tajikistan clearly has the potential to grow at more than seven percent a year as it has done in the recent past, but it is not going to be easy. The potential for 'catch-up' growth from the depths of the recession of the 1990s is largely exhausted, the external environment is now less favorable than it was in the 2000s, and some drivers of past growth are unlikely to be sustained. Nevertheless, efforts by the government to create better conditions for higher private investment, exports, and employment, as well as strong support from the Tajik business community and development partners, could make this target a reality. In the 2000s, the Tajik economy recovered from the severe transition-related recession and civil conflict of the 1990s. Macroeconomic performance improved: inflation fell from 30-40 percent in the late 1990s to six-seven percent in the mid-2000s, fiscal deficits were lower, and the current account deficit and external debt moved to more manageable levels. Real GDP growth averaged nearly eight percent a year in 2000-08. The poverty headcount fell sharply, from 72 percent in 2003 to 54 percent in 2007, with more than a million people moving out of poverty; during the same period, the share of the extremely poor population fell from 42 percent to 17 percent. Key social indicators (for example, primary and secondary school enrollment rates, infant mortality, maternal mortality, and child malnutrition) also improved.Publication Sudden Stops : Are Global and Local Investors Alike?(2011-02-01)The main goal of this paper is to characterize the determinants of sudden stops caused by domestic vis-a-vis foreign residents. Are the decisions of domestic investors to invest abroad or of foreign investors to cut off funds from the domestic economy governed by the same set of determinants? Given the distribution of different types of sudden stop episodes over time and its different macroeconomic consequences, the authors argue that the determinants may not be alike. Using an effective sample of 82 countries with annual information over the period 1970-2007, the analysis finds that global investors are less likely to stop bringing their capital when their economy is growing and the world interest rate is lower. Domestic agents are more willing to invest abroad if the macroeconomic performance of the domestic economy is poor (high inflation), the financial system is weak, and there are high external savings (current account surpluses). Increasing financial openness makes the domestic country more vulnerable to sudden stops caused by either local or global investors. Finally, countries with higher shares of foreign direct investment are less prone to inflow-driven sudden stops, whereas the opposite holds for outflow-driven sudden stops.Publication Cambodia - Sustaining Rapid Growth in a Challenging Environment : Country Economic Memorandum(World Bank, 2009-01-01)Many countries succeed in generating high economic growth at some point in their history. But only a very few manage to sustain rapid growth for an extended period. Only such a prolonged period of rapid growth can have a significant impact on income per capita, and such an impact often brings with it many other important changes to people's lives. Cambodia has more than doubled its income per capita over the past decade, from US$285 in 1997 to US$593 in 2007. This doubling has been accompanied by the trappings of a profound structural transformation: integration into the global economy; a shift of jobs from agriculture to manufacturing; a demographic transition; and migration from rural to urban areas. Translating into jobs and better services, these outcomes have led to a significant reduction in poverty, as well as improvements in health and education. This report aims to contribute to policymakers' and citizens' thinking about growth in Cambodia in three ways: (i) it reviews the experience of the past decade and draws the Cambodia-specific lessons of this period; (ii) it sketches the major potential sources of growth with the aim of assessing the barriers to growth; and (iii) it outlines policy options for addressing these barriers.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Kenya Economic Update, November 2020(World Bank, Nairobi, 2020-11-24)Kenya’s economy has been hit hard by COVID-19, severely affecting incomes and jobs. The economy has been exposed through the dampening effects on domestic activity of the containment measures and behavioral responses, and through trade and travel disruption (affecting key foreign currency earners such as tourism and cut flowers). Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.4 percent in H1 2020 year-on-year(y/y), compared to growth of 5.4 percent in H1 of 2019. This reflects a worse-than-anticipated Q2 GDP outturn, mainly due to a sharp reduction of services sector output, especially education. As a result, the economy is projected to contract by 1.0 percent in 2020 in the baseline scenario, and by 1.5 percent in a more adverse scenario. This revision essentially adopts the adverse scenario outlined in the April 2020 update, reflecting the more severe impact of the pandemic to date than had been initially anticipated, including on the measured output of the education sector following the closure of institutions in March. The special focus topic finds that the pandemic increased poverty by 4 percentage points (or an additional 2 million poor) through serious impacts on livelihoods, by sharp decreases in incomes and employment. The unemployment rate increased sharply,approximately doubling to 10.4 percent in the second quarter as measured by the KNBS Quarterly Labor Force Survey. Many wage workers who are still employed face reduced working hours, with average hours decreasing from 50 to 38 hours per week. Almost 1 in 3 household runbusinesses are not currently operating, and between February and June average revenue from household run businesses decreased by almost 50 percent. This has exacerbated food insecurity, and elevated pain and human suffering. In response to the crisis, the government has deployed both fiscal and monetary policies to support the healthcare system, protect the most vulnerable households, and support firms to help preserve jobs,incomes and the economy’s productive potential. Tax revenue dropped below target, due to the marked slowdown in economic activity, as well as tax relief as part of the government’s fiscal response package. At the same time, expenditures were raised to strengthen the capacity of the healthcare system to manage infections, protect the most vulnerable households, and support businesses.Publication Resilience Rating System(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-02)Resilience is the capacity to prepare for disruptions, recover from shocks, and grow from a disruptive experience. The World Bank Group has developed a Resilience Rating System that provides guidance and specific criteria to assess resilience along two complementary dimensions. 1. Resilience of the project rates the confidence that expected investment outcomes will be achieved, based on whether a project has considered climate and disaster risks in its design, incorporated adaptation measures, and demonstrated economic viability despite climate risks. 2. Resilience through the project rates a project’s contribution to adaptive development pathways based on whether investments are targeted at increasing climate resilience in the broader community or sector. The objectives of the Resilience Rating System are to: (a) Better inform decision makers, investors, and other stakeholders on the resilience of projects and investments; (b) Create incentives for more widespread and effective climate adaptation through enhanced transparency and simpler disclosure; (c) Identify best practices to allow proven lessons on resilience to be scaled up across sectors and countries; (d) Guide project developers on the best ways to manage risk and improve the quality of projects, while allowing flexibility for different sectoral and country contexts. The resilience rating methodology, from C through to A+ in each dimension, can serve as a guide for institutions, public and private sector participants.Publication Strengthening Financial Reporting Regimes and the Accountancy Profession and Practices in Selected Caribbean Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06-26)The main objectives of this report are to: (a) provide a synthesized analysis of financial reporting and auditing standards and practices across the countries in which the Institute of Chartered Accountants of the Caribbean (ICAC) is active and (b) provide a basis for recommendations to ICAC and respective national institutes for a regional strategy to enhance the accounting profession and the accounting and auditing practices in the public and private sectors. This report’s focus on reforms and identification of areas and means to strengthen the accounting profession have at their root the conviction that systemic enhancements to the standards and practices of the profession can materially improve the lives of the region’s populace, particularly its less prosperous citizens, through greater transparency, strengthened economic growth and its attendant employment and tax revenue prospects, and greater access to financing for and formalization of the region’s dominant sector-micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). The report finds that a constraint limiting both investment across the region, particularly to MSMEs that characterize the respective national economies, and the efficient use of public resources is the accounting and auditing practices and the financial reporting regimes that prevail in both the public and private sectors. This finding emerges from: (i) a review of Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes for Accounting and Auditing (ROSC AA) conducted by the World Bank for Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, and the countries of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States, and (ii) Bank missions to those countries updating the ROSC findings as well as missions to countries that have not yet had ROSC AA reviews (during which the Bank team met the national accountancy body, regulators of entities that fall within the financial reporting chain, supreme audit institutions, central banks, and so forth so as to secure information that would typically be found in formal ROSC AA reports).Publication Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17)Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.