Publication: South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2015: Getting Prices Right--The Recent Disinflation and Its Implications
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2015-10-04
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2015-10-04
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The South Asia Economic Focus is a biannual economic update presenting recent economic developments and a near term economic outlook for South Asia. It includes a Focus section presenting more in depth analysis of an economic topic of relevance for stability, growth and prosperity in the region as well as country briefs covering Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It concludes with a data section providing key economic indicators for South Asia "at a glance". Overall, it aims at providing important background information and timely analysis of key indicators and economic and financial developments of relevance to World Bank Group operations and interaction with counterparts in the region, particularly during annual and spring meeting
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“World Bank. 2015. South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2015: Getting Prices Right--The Recent Disinflation and Its Implications. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22708 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2016(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-03)South Asia defies a sluggish world economy and continues its path of gradual acceleration during 2016. Led by a solid India, the region remains a global growth hot spot. While South Asian economies proved resilient vis-à-vis external headwinds such as China’s slowdown or uncertainty surrounding monetary policy in advanced economies, some are beginning to feel the sting from slowing remittance flows or waning oil price dividends. Against this backdrop of relative stability but fading tailwinds, India is set to grow at 7.6 percent in 2016, the same speed as in 2015, but may increase its pace again in 2017 to 7.7 percent. The region will remain steadfast in the face of future volatility and is expected to grow at 7.1 percent in 2016, however, its medium term performance strongly hinges on investment and exports. Downside risks are concentrated around political uncertainty as well as fiscal and financial vulnerabilities. While export growth is set to return to positive territory, it will deliver only gradually as global demand picks up. A reality check reveals that private investment – the key future growth driver across South Asia – is yet to be ignited to sustain and further increase the pace of economic activity.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2019(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-10-13)Global GDP growth is decelerating, while trade and industrial production are stagnating. The slowdown has been severe in South Asia, which in recent quarters was no longer the fastest growing region in the world. In most South Asian countries, growth is expected to be below long-run averages this year but there is significant diversity evident in the high frequency data of industrial production. Current account deficits have declined, as is often the case during economic downturns. 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Behind these trends lies a combination of large public sector borrowing (especially by the states), relatively sticky interest rates despite decreasing inflation, and an increasingly stressed financial sector. While growth has slightly accelerated elsewhere in the region, concerns remain. Bangladesh has seen an increase in financial sector risks and in Pakistan macroeconomic discipline has weakened. At 6.7 percent, growth is projected to remain strong in South Asia in 2017, albeit slightly lower than forecast in June. The growth rate is expected to stabilize around 7 percent over the medium term. Consumption should remain strong and private investment should regain momentum thanks to ongoing support from infrastructure development and economic reforms. Measuring GDP is especially challenging in developing countries, where the informal sector is large and institutional constraints can be severe. As a result, GDP growth estimates are often met with skepticism. But new technologies offer an opportunity to improve matters. Luminosity observed from satellites has been shown to be a good proxy for economic activity, and methodologies have been developed in recent years to predict GDP over time and across space based on nightlight intensity. In South Asia’s case, GDP predicted using these methodologies closely tracks National Accounts GDP at the aggregate level, and provides a granular picture of GDP at subnational levels. Nightlight intensity also yields new insights on recent economic developments.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2014 : The Export Opportunity(Washington, DC, 2014-10-08)Global recovery remains below expectations and uneven across major advanced economies. Monetary tightening in a recovering US economy and potential deflation in a weak Eurozone constitute sources of risk for developing and emerging market economies. Nonetheless, developing country growth remains fairly robust. Notably, India continues its path towards sustained and faster growth as well as macroeconomic stability thereby paving the way for a solid regional performance in South Asia. While the region’s external position has been further solidified, key domestic challenges include reducing risks on the fiscal side as well as sustaining investment and export growth through structural reform and prudent macroeconomic policy. The overall short and medium term outlook for South Asia points towards continued acceleration with potential downside risks concentrated on the fiscal and structural reform side. Future growth dynamics will increasingly depend on strong investment and export performance. While a challenging task, it may afford South Asia to significantly catch up with the fastest growing region - East Asia and Pacific. This edition’s special focus section takes a macroeconomic look at exports and their potential for becoming a permanent growth pillar in South Asia.
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