Publication: South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2018: Budget Crunch
Loading...
Files in English
131,237 downloads
Published
2018-10-06
ISSN
Date
2018-09-27
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
South Asia remains the fastest-growing region in the world and its performance has strengthened further. The external environment, while remaining conducive, has become more turbulent. Monetary policy is being adjusted accordingly, but fiscal policy is not equally responsive and fiscal deficits remain large. Despite strong demand from advanced economies and considerable depreciation of domestic currencies, imports are still growing stronger than exports in most countries. Rising oil prices add further pressure on South Asia’s high current account deficits. South Asia is expected to remain the fastest-growing region in the world and its performance could strengthen even further. Widening current account deficits and increased turbulence in international markets call for prudent economic policy, and fiscal discipline is at the core of prudent management. However, most South Asian countries generate low tax revenue. They also run large fiscal deficits, often amplified by economic shocks and political cycles, which limits their room to maneuver. Tax revenue increases with economic growth, but so does government expenditure. Since spending multipliers are positive, the procyclicality of spending amplifies boom-and-bust cycles instead of smoothening them. In several countries debt levels are high and hidden liabilities are a concern. Not all these patterns are present in all countries, but they combine into a specific set of challenges in each, putting fiscal matters at the core of development policy.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2018. South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2018: Budget Crunch. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30454 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2018(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-04-15)South Asia is again the fastest growing region in the world. And growth should further strengthen to 7.1 percent on average in 2019-20, reflecting an improvement across most of the region. But are countries generating enough jobs? The demographic transition is swelling the ranks of the working-age population across most of South Asia. For this report, crucial information about employment in South Asia is extracted in a transparent and replicable way from over 60 surveys and censuses covering the period from 2001 onwards. The analysis of this information reveals that employment does respond to economic growth in the short term, implying that growth is not jobless. It also appears that countries in South Asia have created large numbers of jobs over the years. However, the nature of the jobs created is not fully encouraging, and the analysis shows that rapid growth alone will not be sufficient to bring South Asian employment rates to the levels observed elsewhere in the developing world. In addition to high growth, more and better jobs need to be created for every percentage point of growth. The results in this chapter call for better employment data, and for a focus on the economic policies that can boost job creation.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2016(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-03)South Asia defies a sluggish world economy and continues its path of gradual acceleration during 2016. Led by a solid India, the region remains a global growth hot spot. While South Asian economies proved resilient vis-à-vis external headwinds such as China’s slowdown or uncertainty surrounding monetary policy in advanced economies, some are beginning to feel the sting from slowing remittance flows or waning oil price dividends. Against this backdrop of relative stability but fading tailwinds, India is set to grow at 7.6 percent in 2016, the same speed as in 2015, but may increase its pace again in 2017 to 7.7 percent. The region will remain steadfast in the face of future volatility and is expected to grow at 7.1 percent in 2016, however, its medium term performance strongly hinges on investment and exports. Downside risks are concentrated around political uncertainty as well as fiscal and financial vulnerabilities. While export growth is set to return to positive territory, it will deliver only gradually as global demand picks up. A reality check reveals that private investment – the key future growth driver across South Asia – is yet to be ignited to sustain and further increase the pace of economic activity.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2017(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-10-08)For eight consecutive quarters South Asia was the fastest-growing region in the world… but not anymore. Despite benign global conditions, regional growth has slowed down. This trend is the result of a deceleration in India, the region’s powerhouse. Short-term disruptions related to the introduction of the landmark Goods and Services Tax can explain the steep decline observed in the last quarter, but the deceleration has been going on for more than one year. Over this period imports increased sharply while private investment declined. Behind these trends lies a combination of large public sector borrowing (especially by the states), relatively sticky interest rates despite decreasing inflation, and an increasingly stressed financial sector. While growth has slightly accelerated elsewhere in the region, concerns remain. Bangladesh has seen an increase in financial sector risks and in Pakistan macroeconomic discipline has weakened. At 6.7 percent, growth is projected to remain strong in South Asia in 2017, albeit slightly lower than forecast in June. The growth rate is expected to stabilize around 7 percent over the medium term. Consumption should remain strong and private investment should regain momentum thanks to ongoing support from infrastructure development and economic reforms. Measuring GDP is especially challenging in developing countries, where the informal sector is large and institutional constraints can be severe. As a result, GDP growth estimates are often met with skepticism. But new technologies offer an opportunity to improve matters. Luminosity observed from satellites has been shown to be a good proxy for economic activity, and methodologies have been developed in recent years to predict GDP over time and across space based on nightlight intensity. In South Asia’s case, GDP predicted using these methodologies closely tracks National Accounts GDP at the aggregate level, and provides a granular picture of GDP at subnational levels. Nightlight intensity also yields new insights on recent economic developments.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2019(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-10-13)Global GDP growth is decelerating, while trade and industrial production are stagnating. The slowdown has been severe in South Asia, which in recent quarters was no longer the fastest growing region in the world. In most South Asian countries, growth is expected to be below long-run averages this year but there is significant diversity evident in the high frequency data of industrial production. Current account deficits have declined, as is often the case during economic downturns. Inflation remains near target in most countries, but food price inflation is picking up. Growth forecasts for South Asia are revised downward considerably as uncertainty in global markets and a worsening global outlook have become more important drivers of the forecast. The expected modest recovery to 6.3 percent in 2020 and 6.7 percent in 2021 is tentative as forecasts under current circumstances, particularly for investment, are highly uncertain. In many countries across the region, further decentralization is a high policy priority. These policies are part of a global decentralization trend, which aims to improve local service delivery. Empirical evidence of the effectiveness of decentralization is mixed, a result which is often attributed to partial decentralization. Successful development requires both decentralization and centralization at the same time. In the interplay between central and local governments, the allocation of resources plays a crucial role. In South Asia, a lack of geospatial data on expenditure and development outcomes remains a major constraint.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-10-04)The South Asia Economic Focus is a biannual economic update presenting recent economic developments and a near term economic outlook for South Asia. It includes a Focus section presenting more in depth analysis of an economic topic of relevance for stability, growth and prosperity in the region as well as country briefs covering Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It concludes with a data section providing key economic indicators for South Asia "at a glance". Overall, it aims at providing important background information and timely analysis of key indicators and economic and financial developments of relevance to World Bank Group operations and interaction with counterparts in the region, particularly during annual and spring meeting
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.Publication Shifting Gears: The Private Sector as an Engine of Growth in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-23)The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is estimated to have grown at a modest rate of 1.9 percent in 2024 and is expected to grow moderately at 2.6 percent in 2025. This is against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty, particularly in trade policy. The region is far from the frontier in standards of living, largely due to low productivity. This issue of the MENA Economic Update sheds light on a critical engine of productivity growth: the private sector. Businesses create jobs, boost livelihoods, and serve as a bastion of innovation in the economy. The MENA private sector, however, is not dynamic and is ill prepared to absorb shocks. To boost the performance of the private sector, governments in the region may need to rethink their role in engaging with markets including improving competition, the business environment, and the availability of data. Additionally, private sector businesses in the region can increase performance through better management practices and harnessing untapped talent in the region.Publication What Have We Learned about the Effectiveness of Infrastructure Investment as a Fiscal Stimulus? A Literature Review(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10)Since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and through the more recent Asian Crisis of 1997 and Great Recession of 2008/09, governments have experimented with Keynesian style fiscal stimulus to support employment and accelerate economic recovery. The effectiveness of these policies depends on the size of fiscal multipliers. A large body of economic literature has estimated such multipliers, with gradually increasing precision, due to econometric improvements and better ways to identify fiscal impulses. Overall, the largest multipliers are found to be associated with public investment, as opposed to other types of spending. Such public investment multipliers are typically below one in the short run, but studies with multi-year horizons suggest that values higher than unity can be attained over time. The size of multipliers is sensitive to economic conditions. During recessions, and periods of high unemployment, transfer payments appear sometimes to offer higher multipliers than public investment. An important exception is when fiscal and monetary policies are closely coordinated and interest rates approach zero, conditions that provide the strongest evidence for the efficacy of public investment multipliers. Other institutional factors also play a crucial role in determining the size of the public investment multiplier, in particular the country’s absorptive capacity, and the selection of high-quality shovel ready projects. However, there is limited empirical evidence available on the magnitude of fiscal multipliers in developing country settings, or for infrastructure sectors or subsectors specifically. The few studies available suggest that certain types of green infrastructure (energy efficiency, solar energy, and so forth) may bring employment benefits in the short run, while innovative digital infrastructure may yield longer-run benefits for economic growth. The relevance of these findings to the current COVID-19 crisis is explored.