Publication: South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2018: Budget Crunch
Loading...
Files in English
131,252 downloads
Published
2018-10-06
ISSN
Date
2018-09-27
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
South Asia remains the fastest-growing region in the world and its performance has strengthened further. The external environment, while remaining conducive, has become more turbulent. Monetary policy is being adjusted accordingly, but fiscal policy is not equally responsive and fiscal deficits remain large. Despite strong demand from advanced economies and considerable depreciation of domestic currencies, imports are still growing stronger than exports in most countries. Rising oil prices add further pressure on South Asia’s high current account deficits. South Asia is expected to remain the fastest-growing region in the world and its performance could strengthen even further. Widening current account deficits and increased turbulence in international markets call for prudent economic policy, and fiscal discipline is at the core of prudent management. However, most South Asian countries generate low tax revenue. They also run large fiscal deficits, often amplified by economic shocks and political cycles, which limits their room to maneuver. Tax revenue increases with economic growth, but so does government expenditure. Since spending multipliers are positive, the procyclicality of spending amplifies boom-and-bust cycles instead of smoothening them. In several countries debt levels are high and hidden liabilities are a concern. Not all these patterns are present in all countries, but they combine into a specific set of challenges in each, putting fiscal matters at the core of development policy.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2018. South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2018: Budget Crunch. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30454 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2018(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-04-15)South Asia is again the fastest growing region in the world. And growth should further strengthen to 7.1 percent on average in 2019-20, reflecting an improvement across most of the region. But are countries generating enough jobs? The demographic transition is swelling the ranks of the working-age population across most of South Asia. For this report, crucial information about employment in South Asia is extracted in a transparent and replicable way from over 60 surveys and censuses covering the period from 2001 onwards. The analysis of this information reveals that employment does respond to economic growth in the short term, implying that growth is not jobless. It also appears that countries in South Asia have created large numbers of jobs over the years. However, the nature of the jobs created is not fully encouraging, and the analysis shows that rapid growth alone will not be sufficient to bring South Asian employment rates to the levels observed elsewhere in the developing world. In addition to high growth, more and better jobs need to be created for every percentage point of growth. The results in this chapter call for better employment data, and for a focus on the economic policies that can boost job creation.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2016(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-03)South Asia defies a sluggish world economy and continues its path of gradual acceleration during 2016. Led by a solid India, the region remains a global growth hot spot. While South Asian economies proved resilient vis-à-vis external headwinds such as China’s slowdown or uncertainty surrounding monetary policy in advanced economies, some are beginning to feel the sting from slowing remittance flows or waning oil price dividends. Against this backdrop of relative stability but fading tailwinds, India is set to grow at 7.6 percent in 2016, the same speed as in 2015, but may increase its pace again in 2017 to 7.7 percent. The region will remain steadfast in the face of future volatility and is expected to grow at 7.1 percent in 2016, however, its medium term performance strongly hinges on investment and exports. Downside risks are concentrated around political uncertainty as well as fiscal and financial vulnerabilities. While export growth is set to return to positive territory, it will deliver only gradually as global demand picks up. A reality check reveals that private investment – the key future growth driver across South Asia – is yet to be ignited to sustain and further increase the pace of economic activity.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2019(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-10-13)Global GDP growth is decelerating, while trade and industrial production are stagnating. The slowdown has been severe in South Asia, which in recent quarters was no longer the fastest growing region in the world. In most South Asian countries, growth is expected to be below long-run averages this year but there is significant diversity evident in the high frequency data of industrial production. Current account deficits have declined, as is often the case during economic downturns. Inflation remains near target in most countries, but food price inflation is picking up. Growth forecasts for South Asia are revised downward considerably as uncertainty in global markets and a worsening global outlook have become more important drivers of the forecast. The expected modest recovery to 6.3 percent in 2020 and 6.7 percent in 2021 is tentative as forecasts under current circumstances, particularly for investment, are highly uncertain. In many countries across the region, further decentralization is a high policy priority. These policies are part of a global decentralization trend, which aims to improve local service delivery. Empirical evidence of the effectiveness of decentralization is mixed, a result which is often attributed to partial decentralization. Successful development requires both decentralization and centralization at the same time. In the interplay between central and local governments, the allocation of resources plays a crucial role. In South Asia, a lack of geospatial data on expenditure and development outcomes remains a major constraint.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2017(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-10-08)For eight consecutive quarters South Asia was the fastest-growing region in the world… but not anymore. Despite benign global conditions, regional growth has slowed down. This trend is the result of a deceleration in India, the region’s powerhouse. Short-term disruptions related to the introduction of the landmark Goods and Services Tax can explain the steep decline observed in the last quarter, but the deceleration has been going on for more than one year. Over this period imports increased sharply while private investment declined. Behind these trends lies a combination of large public sector borrowing (especially by the states), relatively sticky interest rates despite decreasing inflation, and an increasingly stressed financial sector. While growth has slightly accelerated elsewhere in the region, concerns remain. Bangladesh has seen an increase in financial sector risks and in Pakistan macroeconomic discipline has weakened. At 6.7 percent, growth is projected to remain strong in South Asia in 2017, albeit slightly lower than forecast in June. The growth rate is expected to stabilize around 7 percent over the medium term. Consumption should remain strong and private investment should regain momentum thanks to ongoing support from infrastructure development and economic reforms. Measuring GDP is especially challenging in developing countries, where the informal sector is large and institutional constraints can be severe. As a result, GDP growth estimates are often met with skepticism. But new technologies offer an opportunity to improve matters. Luminosity observed from satellites has been shown to be a good proxy for economic activity, and methodologies have been developed in recent years to predict GDP over time and across space based on nightlight intensity. In South Asia’s case, GDP predicted using these methodologies closely tracks National Accounts GDP at the aggregate level, and provides a granular picture of GDP at subnational levels. Nightlight intensity also yields new insights on recent economic developments.Publication South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 8, Fall 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09)Economic activity in the six South East European countries (SEE6) is picking up speed, and growth in the region is expected to average 1.8 percent for 2015. The highest growth rates projected are 3.4 percent for Montenegro and 3.2 percent for FYR Macedonia; the lowest is Serbia’s 0.5 percent. Although they trail the rest of the SEE6 region, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which were hit heavily by floods in mid-2014, are recovering faster than expected. As 2015 progresses, a recovery in domestic demand is stimulating economic growth throughout the region. Private investment has become the main driver of growth. Developments in the global economy have also helped, especially lower oil prices and a pick-up in demand in the European Union (EU), a major market for the region.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Transportation and the Environment(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10)In urban areas around the world, increasing motorization and growing travel demand make the urban transportation sector an ever-greater contributor to local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The situation is particularly acute in developing countries, where growing metropolitan regions suffer some of the world’s highest levels of air pollution. Policies that seek to develop and manage this transportation sector—to meet rising demand linked to economic growth and safeguard the environment and human health—have had strikingly different results, with some inadvertently exacerbating the traffic and pollution they seek to mitigate. This paper provides an overview of the findings of the recent literature on the impacts of a host of urban transportation policies used in developed and developing country settings. The paper identifies research challenges and future areas of study of transportation policies, which can have important, long-lasting impacts on urban life and global climate change.Publication Place, Productivity, and Prosperity(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-01-21)Place matters for productivity and prosperity. Myriad factors support a successful place, including not only the hard infrastructure such as roads, but also the softer elements such as worker skills, entrepreneurial ability, and well-functioning institutions. History suggests that prosperous places tend to persist, while “left-behind” regions—or those hurt by climatic, technological, or commercial shocks—struggle to catch up. This division gives rise to demands to “do something” about the subsequent spatial inequality. Such pressures often result in costly spatially targeted policies with disappointing outcomes because of a lack of analysis of the underlying barriers to growth and structural transformation and a fair appraisal of the possibility of overcoming them. The latest volume of the World Bank Productivity Project series, Place, Productivity, and Prosperity: Revisiting Spatially Targeted Policies for Regional Development makes three broad contributions. First, it provides new analytical and empirical insights into the three drivers of economic geography—agglomeration economies, migration, and distance—and the way in which these drivers interact. Second, it argues that these forces are playing out differently in developing countries than they have in advanced economies: urbanization is not accompanied by structural transformation, leaving cities crowded and accruing all the negative aspects of urbanization without being concentrated productively. Long-term amelioration of poverty in lagging regions requires advancing the overall national agenda of structural change and productivity growth. Third, it provides a heuristic framework with which to inform policy makers’ assessments of place-based policy proposals, helping them identify the regions where policy is likely to have an impact and those that would remain nonviable. The framework enables governments to clarify the implications of various policy options; to think critically about design priorities, including necessary complementary policies; and to navigate the implementation challenges.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Using Post-Double Selection Lasso in Field Experiments(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-27)The post-double selection Lasso estimator has become a popular way of selecting control variables when analyzing randomized experiments. This is done to try to improve precision, and reduce bias from attrition or chance imbalances. This paper re-estimates 780 treatment effects from published papers to examine how much difference this approach makes in practice. PDS Lasso is found to reduce standard errors by less than one percent compared to standard Ancova on average and does not select variables to model treatment in over half the cases. The authors discuss and provide evidence on the key practical decisions researchers face in using this method.Publication Promoting Innovation in China(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04-17)China considers innovation be one of the key drivers of its future growth and convergence with more developed countries. It spends more than 2.2 percent of GDP on R&D, above the average for the European Union, is a global leader in domestic patents, and has developed groundbreaking advances in key sectors such as high-speed trains, e-commerce and mobile payments. However, the quality of patents has been slower to improve, Chinese firms remain dependent on foreign suppliers in a number of core high-tech components, and resources do not flow easily to more productive firms resulting in large productivity gaps between market leaders and remaining enterprises. In order to restart its productivity engine and support continued technological catch- up, China must revise its approach to innovation policy. This paper takes stock of China’s progress in building a modern national innovation (NIS) system, reviews international good practice in promoting innovation and shares policy recommendations to help China sustain its drive to become one of the global innovation champions.