Publication: South Sudan Economic Update, December 2020: Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19
Loading...
Published
2020-12
ISSN
Date
2021-03-08
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The South Sudan economy had recorded a strong growth pickup before the COVID-19 pandemic, with real GDP growth estimated at 9.3% in FY2019/20 but a contraction of -3.4% is projected in FY2020/21. Oil production was estimated at 62.1 million barrels in FY2019/20, representing a 26.5% increase from 49.1 million barrels realized in FY2018/19. However, oil production is expected to decline to 58.4 million barrels in FY20/21, as COVID-19 restrictions impacted movement of machinery and OPEC+ production cuts affected production. With COVID-19 restrictions delaying new investment, activity in the oil sector is not expected to improve until FY2022/23 when oil production is projected to rise to 60.2 million barrels. At the same time, the country has experienced concurrent shocks with floods, locust infestation, and higher subnational conflict intensity contributing to a dire economic outlook. Consequently, the economy is projected to contract by -3.4% in FY2020/21, driven by subdued economic activity in both oil and non-oil sectors. Beyond FY2020/21, recovery is projected on the assumption of a rebound in the global economy (that will support higher oil prices, investment, and remittances), commitment to a credible reform process, sustainability of peace, and resilience to climatic shocks
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. South Sudan Economic Update, December 2020: Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35217 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Central African Republic Economic Update, October 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10)The economy of the Central African Republic (CAR) grew at a slower pace in 2019 compared to 2018. Still, it grew at 3.1 percent, year-onyear, in 2019, above the average of regional peers (1.6 percent) and countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) (2.7 percent). Despite improvements in security following the signing of the peace agreement in February 2019, the economy performed worse than expected due to the collapse by about 30 percent in the production of coffee and cotton, which in turn was the result of persistent structural challenges in the agriculture sector. On the demand side, private consumption remained the main driver of economic growth, while the agriculture and services sectors drove growth on the supply side. Moreover, extreme poverty remains high and projected to affect 71 percent of the population—3.4 million people—in 2019. Inflation increased in 2019, and CEMAC’s monetary policy remained on track. The tightening of monetary policy, as well as progress on implementing the new Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa’s (Communauté Économique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale, CEMAC) foreign exchange regulation in March 2019, contributed to a strong recovery of gross foreign assets, from 2.7 months’ worth of imports in 2018 to 3.3 months in 2019. Inflation was contained at an average of 2.8 percent in 2019 as inflationary pressures from the blockade of the main trade route between Bangui and Cameroon in March abated. Fiscal stance improved, but CAR remains at high risk of debt distress. Public expenditure grew at a slower pace in 2019 than in 2018, mainly due to delays in public investments. Government revenues picked up at 18.4 percent of GDP in 2019 thanks to a significant increase in official grants. As a result, the overall fiscal situation improved in 2019, and the debt-to-GDP ratio continued to decline. However, CAR remains at high risk of debt distress, primarily due to low exports and mobilization of domestic resources.Publication Sierra Leone Economic Update, June 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Sierra Leone, like many countries in the world, is now facing the dire human and economic impacts of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic. Prior to the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis, Sierra Leone was one of the fastest growing countries in Africa. However, growth prospects have been severely undermined since the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak. The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis, like the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic, is likely to damage adolescent girls’ education prospects and their human capital potentials as the prevalence of child marriage and early childbearing as well as the risk of girls dropping out of school are all exacerbated during crises. This update comprises the economic outlook for Sierra Leone and a special chapter on educating girls. First part discusses recent economic developments, the impact of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) on the economy and the growth prospects under different scenarios regarding the spread of COVID-19 (Coronavirus). It discusses the potential channels of transmission, provides estimates of spillovers, and emphasizes necessary policy responses. Second part of this update highlights the economic gains that could be achieved from ending child marriage and promoting girls’ education. It also discusses a range of measures that could be undertaken by the government following the recent decision to allow pregnant girls to stay in school or return to school.Publication Philippines Economic Update, December 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12-02)The Philippine economy contracted by 10.0 percent, year-on-year, in the first three quarters of 2020, given the triple shock brought by the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. COVID-19 delivered a triple shock of a health crisis, strict containment measures, and a global recession of unprecedented scale. The sharp contraction in the second quarter was driven by the steep dive in private domestic demand, deep contraction in public investment activities, and the collapse of trade due to the impact of strict containment measures domestically and globally. Most of the country entered a more relaxed community quarantine in mid-August with a gradual opening of businesses and government operations. Yet, the economy further contracted in the third quarter, albeit a modest improvement from the peak of the outbreak. Moreover, the country was hit by a series of strong typhoons which may cause delay on the pace of the recovery as economic activities were affected in some areas. This report will feature disaster risk management (DRM) challenges the country faces and policy recommendations to strengthen its fiscal, physical, and social resilience. The severity of the recession can be explained, first and foremost, by the collapse in private consumption, as containment measures led to a fall in employment and incomes. Private consumption contracted by 8.2 percent, its worst performance on record. This was in large part due to a combination of factors that crippled domestic demand, including record-high unemployment, declining incomes (including remittances), movement restrictions that suppressed consumption, and a historic decline in consumer confidence. The deepest contraction was registered in the consumption of non-essential goods and services and those that were affected by the implementation of strict containment measures, while essential goods such as food registered small positive growth. In particular, the combination of travel restrictions and weak consumer confidence which weighed on demand, resulted in a collapse in domestic tourism expenditures, which make up a fifth of private consumption.Publication Kazakhstan Economic Update, December 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)The fallout of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has hit the economy more than the crises in 2008 and 2015. The pandemic is projected to shrink by 2.5 percent this year. The economy is expected to grow modesty by 2.5 percent next year, based on an improved global economic outlook. This report estimates Kazakhstan’s poverty rate will increase to 12-14 percent in 2020 from a baseline of 6 percent Nevertheless, there are significant risks because of uneven economic recovery across countries due to the protracted pandemic and higher debt-related risks to the global financial market. The domestic financial sector is also exposed to a higher risk of growing non-performing loans if support measures are withdrawn.Publication Job Outcomes in the Towns of South Sudan(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-21)This study assesses jobs outcomes in the towns of South Sudan, based on a 2017 household survey and a dedicated 2019 youth jobs survey. It discusses how years of conflict have touched nearly all livelihoods, leaving few productive jobs, and causing high poverty. Most urban households diversify their job activities little, and rely on household work in agriculture, commerce or personal services, or they depend on a household member’s work for NGOs or as a public servant. Many young workers say they are ready to build from the less than attractive job activities available. Workers point to a lack of funding, insecurity, and low demand as the main obstacles to doing better. The study is one of a set of four reports assessing different aspects of jobs in urban South Sudan in order to formulate policy for recovery.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Tanzania Jobs Diagnostic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018)Tanzania has just entered a phase of growing dependency rates that will put pressure on job creation so that the larger number of dependents do not fall into poverty. However, the new millions of jobs that will be needed in the next decade is only part of the challenge. It is important to create better jobs. An economy that produces plenty of good jobs is the most direct way to continue the trajectory toward lower poverty rates. Challenges to creating more and better jobs for the poor and vulnerable groups stem from both labor demand and supply issues. On the demand side, large firms in a few sectors dominate. Possibly because of that dominance, micro and small firms find it difficult to grow and provide new jobs. Firms’ relatively restricted market access may also be a crucial factor in explaining comparative low productivity and employment. Trade expansion and a well-connected economy would address issues of comparative low-productivity and employment. On the supply side, urban areas have high unemployment. In rural areas, underemployment is on the rise. The fall in unemployment rates may be largely explained by discouraged workers withdrawing from the labor force. Where there is willingness to work—like with women and young workers—disparities in the access to quality employment is an obstacle. Finally, the rise in educational attainment was insufficient to address labor market challenges likely due to the fall in the quality of education. The objective of the Jobs Diagnostic (JD) is to identify the main challenges to job creation and to improve the quality and inclusiveness of employment. The JD is a data-driven exercise that looks at macroeconomic and demographic factors, as well as labor supply and demand to pinpoint the main constraints for a jobs-rich growth path. The fact that JDs are data-driven allows for international comparisons based on standardized datasets.The JD covers three main areas: macro and demographic trends, labor supply, and labor demand. The first section looks at the relationships between employment growth, labor productivity, and economic growth to set the macro context to later examine labor supply and demand. The second section cover labor supply. It aims to identify trends in labor supply to understand the population’s needs for employment, the unemployment challenges, underemployment, and waged and informal employment. These trends include working-age population (WAP), labor force, and inactivity. Once identified, international comparisons are based on a global harmonized household database (International Income Distribution Dataset— ‘I2D2’). The labor supply section in JDs employs a set of harmonized variables that are comparable across countries and time. The third section covers labor demand. It aims to identify the links between sectoral productivity, size, age, and other characteristics to assess the constraints for employment growth, productivity, and wages. Firm-level datasets such as Enterprise Surveys, (which allow for some international benchmarking), or censuses of enterprises are used to do this. The demand for labor is derived from the production of goods and services by entrepreneurs to meet the demand for products in an economy. The analysis also highlights who gets the jobs created in the economy and what variables determine earnings and employment. A JD analyzes a country’s economic transformations in relation to other experiences. There are three important aspects of such transformation: Structural transformation (the movement of labor across sectors); Spatial transformation (or “urbanization”; the movement of labor across places); and Organizational transformation (or “formalization”; the movement from informality to formal work, and from self to waged employment). A JD also identifies the characteristics of individuals that can access jobs in the economy, and those who are left behind.Publication Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System : A Handbook for Development Practitioners(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004)An effective state is essential to achieving socio-economic and sustainable development. With the advent of globalization, there are growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to the demands of internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness, and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are among the stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and real results have increased, there is an attendant need for enhanced results-based monitoring and evaluation of policies, programs, and projects. This handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system. These steps begin with a 'readiness assessment' and take the practitioner through the design, management, and importantly, the sustainability of such systems. The handbook describes each step in detail, the tasks needed to complete each one, and the tools available to help along the way.Publication Rural-Urban Migration in Developing Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)This paper reviews the recent literature on rural-urban migration in developing countries, focusing on three key questions: What motivates or forces people to migrate? What costs do migrants face? What are the impacts of migration on migrants and the economy? The literature paints a complex picture whereby rural-urban migration is driven by many factors and the returns to migration as well as the costs are very high. The evidence supports the notion that migration barriers hinder labor market adjustment and are likely to be welfare reducing. The review concludes by identifying gaps in current research and data needs.Publication World Development Report 1984(New York: Oxford University Press, 1984)Long-term needs and sustained effort are underlying themes in this year's report. As with most of its predecessors, it is divided into two parts. The first looks at economic performance, past and prospective. The second part is this year devoted to population - the causes and consequences of rapid population growth, its link to development, why it has slowed down in some developing countries. The two parts mirror each other: economic policy and performance in the next decade will matter for population growth in the developing countries for several decades beyond. Population policy and change in the rest of this century will set the terms for the whole of development strategy in the next. In both cases, policy changes will not yield immediate benefits, but delay will reduce the room for maneuver that policy makers will have in years to come.Publication Wealth Sharing for Conflict Prevention and Economic Growth : Botswana Case Study of Natural Resource Utilization for Peace and Development(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-12)There are countries in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and even a few such countries in Africa that are using non-renewable resources to drive development and have not experienced conflict. South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia are such typical cases in Africa. Instead, the presence of significant minerals in Botswana is associated with economic development and democracy as well as peace. This paper applies the "resource curse", thesis to the case of Botswana, a country that is rich in minerals, yet it has realized positive development thus avoiding conflict and 'the resource curse'. The focus of this study is to examine the experience of Botswana in using natural resources to promote equitable development and thereby avoid conflict which often results from selfish private or ethnic group interests that elsewhere have used natural resources to the exclusion of other groups in society. This study specifically looks at the conditions and factors that facilitated the absence of internal conflict in the extraction of natural resources in Botswana. The key questions answered are: what contextual conditions and factors facilitated the peaceful extraction of natural resources in Botswana?; and were these factors unique to Botswana or can they be replicated elsewhere?. The first chapter gives introduction. The second chapter deals with the socio-political setting of the chiefs' rule during the pre-colonial and colonial periods. The third chapter discusses Botswana's democracy and how it has evolved not only to democratize society but also to become a management culture of good governance for defining how the natural resources will be utilized for the country's development. Chapter four outlines the mineral resource base of Botswana and the policies and strategies used by government in ensuring that such resources were used for public good rather than the self-interest of either the leaders or mining houses. Chapter five focuses attention on cases of local conflicts relating to mineral and other natural resources around different parts of the country. Chapter six brings the issues together to explain Botswana's democratic and mineral dividends in attaining a high development success rate. Chapter seven presents conclusion.