Publication:
Housing Demand and Affordability in India: Implications for Housing Policy

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (2.22 MB)
1,641 downloads
English Text (228.3 KB)
79 downloads
Date
2022-05
ISSN
Published
2022-05
Editor(s)
Abstract
The focus of this paper is on the demand for housing in urban India. Using rental data, the paper finds that income elasticities of housing demand are high and elastic across time. Hedonic pricing regressions confirm that this high elasticity is driven by high demand for improved water and sanitation amenities that are attached to the consumption of housing. Further, the demand estimations show that rental markets in urban India and in megacities are becoming more efficient, emerging from the shadow of legacy rent control regulation and uncertainty from the past. All the results suggest that household subsidies or other demand-side interventions are less warranted, but rather investments to increase housing supply through better service infrastructure for water, sanitation, and connectivity are better uses of public resources. The analysis also provides guidelines to improve the targeting of housing programs by means testing against the income distribution. Using one such estimate of the income distribution, the paper shows that housing affordability is improving in India. In doing so, the paper highlights the methodological challenges in measuring housing affordability in developing countries.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Karmali, Nadeem M.; Weng, Xinyu. 2022. Housing Demand and Affordability in India: Implications for Housing Policy. Policy Research Working Paper;10031. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37402 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09) Munoz, Ercio; Van der Weide, Roy
    This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.
  • Publication
    The Future of Poverty
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15) Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna; Nguyen, Minh C.; Corral, Paul
    Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
  • Publication
    Engineering Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-29) Akcigit, Ufuk; Kilic, Furkan; Lall, Somik; Shpak, Solomiya
    As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder—a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and institutional reform that will determine Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory. Drawing on rich micro-level firm data spanning 25 years, this paper uncovers deep structural distortions that have suppressed creative destruction and productivity in Ukraine. It finds that business dynamism is on the decline, alongside rising market concentration among incumbent businesses, including low productivity state owned enterprises. To inform priorities for reviving business dynamism, this study develops a model of creative destruction drawing on Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021). The quantitative assessment highlights that policies that discipline entrenched incumbents are the bedrock for reviving business dynamism and engineer Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder. Policies targeting specific types of firms have limited efficacy when incumbents run wild.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03) Vagliasindi, Maria; Gorgulu, Nisan
    This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Egypt - Next Step Recommendations for Affordable Housing Policy and the National Housing Program : Mortgaged-Linked Subsidies and Housing Supply considerations
    (Washington, DC, 2008-06) World Bank
    At the request of the Government of Egypt (GOE), the objective of this brief note is to provide concise recommendations on next steps for the National Housing Program (NHP). These recommendations and policy analysis are an elaboration of the framework for housing policy reform in urban areas in Egypt, a draft of which was endorsed by the Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban Development (MHUUD) and the Ministry of Investment (MOI) in the high-level policy workshop held in September 2007. The Framework, an evolving strategy building blocks document, proposed a set of comprehensive housing sector reforms and improvements to the NHP consisting of five action channels - unlocking the vacant housing stock, creating a fluid rental market, enhancing affordability through improved access to housing finance and reduction of formal housing supply cost, improved targeting of subsidies, and transforming the government's role into an enabler of the housing market. During the Ministerial workshop in September 2007, it was agreed that the four priority actions were: (i) the design and implementation of a housing information system; (ii) mainstreaming the use of demand-based mortgage-linked subsidy instruments; (iii) set up of a high-level housing policymaking body to coordinate and rationalize the interventions of the different concerned stakeholders; and (iv) expansion of the Housing Demand Study to other areas of Egypt. United States Agency for International Development or USAID Second Technical Assistance for Policy Reform, or TAPRII has completed the design of the housing information system and has made significant progress in the expansion of the housing demand survey. The World Bank's technical assistance to the GOE, reflected in this note and follow up work, focused on strengthening the housing policymaking process and subsidy policy and expanding the mortgage linked subsidy program.
  • Publication
    Vietnam Affordable Housing
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10-16) World Bank Group
    Affordable housing will be instrumental to helping Vietnam achieve its goals for increasing productivity and inclusive urban growth. Since Doi Moi, the country has experienced impressive economic growth, averaged at 7.4 percent per annum from 1990 to 2008, lowering to an average of 6 percent per annum from 2007 to 2013. Strong economic growth has supported a substantial reduction in poverty, from 58 percent in 1993 to 17 percent in 20121. Yet, the country has remained largely rural, with more than half of its population working in the agricultural sector, which only contributed 17 percent of GDP in 20142. In some countries, urbanization has been used as a tool to accelerate economic growth and poverty reduction. As Vietnam aims to maintain a high growth rate, supporting urbanization, where cities contribute a growing share of jobs and GDP, will be an important measure. This structural shift will drive population growth and new demand for housing in cities, for which quality and affordable housing options in well-serviced and connected settlements will be needed. Areas of particular importance in the Law is support toward self-built housing, the active participation of the private sector, addressing the shortage of affordable rental housing as well as high demand for housing from low income groups, especially workers in industrial zones of large cities. This report, which includes a comprehensive assessment and roadmap for affordable housing in Vietnam, recommends the following key messages moving forward: increase investment, Prepare Three Flagship Initiatives under an umbrella National Affordable Housing Program, Institutional Strengthening, Land Tax Reform, and Create an Enabling Environment for Affordable Housing. Moving forward, design of the market-oriented measures described above will require intensive and careful consultation and engagement with all housing sector actors, particularly the private sector. Private sector will need to play an active role in the early preparation to ensure their participation and commitment that carries through to implementation of policy measures on the financing and supply side.
  • Publication
    Ethiopia - The Employment Creation Effects of the Addis Ababa Integrated Housing Program
    (World Bank, 2009-03-01) World Bank
    Ethiopia's second poverty reduction strategy, the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) outlines a strategy of complementing a continued strong focus on increasing agricultural productivity with an increased emphasis on urban development. In this context it highlights the importance of facilitating accelerated employment generation to address the issue of high levels of urban unemployment. This report is organized as follows: chapter two provides more detailed background information on the program's operation and goals. Chapter three focuses on the methodology for this study, by articulating the key hypotheses tested in this analysis and identifying its limitations. The chapter also describes the main source of information for this study, a purposively collected survey of firms and workers in the construction sector. Chapter four addresses the central issue of this report by providing a snapshot of the beneficiaries of the program, focusing both on firms and workers and reviewing the effects of the program in terms of employment creation, both in static and in dynamic terms. Chapter five provides evidence on the effectiveness of the support offered by the program, and provides some evidence on the general equilibrium effects of the program. Finally, chapter six provides an assessment of the distributional effects of the program through its employment creation effects. Chapter seven reviews the main conclusions emerging from the study and draws the policy implications for the program, particularly in light o f its ongoing scaling up.
  • Publication
    Access to Affordable and Low-Income Housing in East Asia and the Pacific
    (Washington, DC, 2014) World Bank
    Across the world, the housing sector plays a key role in local and national economies, and expanding access to housing can encourage more equitably shared economic growth. This report surveys current policy interventions designed to encourage affordable housing in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP). The purpose of this report is to provide a general overview of the recent trends in urbanization and development in EAP and to consider different forms of government, market, and nonprofit actions that support housing affordability. It will also highlight key constraints and barriers that restrict the provision of low-cost housing in urban areas. Housing is important because it represents a significant household expenditure. The report assesses the strengths and limitations of affordable housing strategies used by different countries throughout EAP. This report offers broad conclusions that account for the broad social, political, and institutional variation among EAP countries; as such, these conclusions may well be applicable to more than one country context. The report also provides specific recommendations for improvement where existing interventions are new or have proven less successful. The report is divided into following chapters: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two examines trends in urbanization rates, economic development, and inequality in order to introduce the need for high-quality, low-cost housing options. Chapter three examines EAP regional trends in urban housing affordability for owners and renters from select cities. Chapter four outlines future directions for affordable housing provision based on a comparative consideration of international best practices. Finally, chapter five surveys different affordable housing policies currently in place in EAP and summarizes their strengths and weaknesses.
  • Publication
    Arab Republic of Egypt : Analysis of Housing Supply Mechanisms, Final Note
    (Washington, DC, 2007) World Bank
    The objective of this study, requested by the Minister of Housing, Utilities and Urban Development, is to assist the government of Egypt in: formulating a coherent national affordable housing strategy which puts in place an effective institutional and regulatory framework that creates the necessary conditions for an efficiently functioning housing market, devises the incentive structure needed to promote increased private sector participation in affordable housing supply and the subsidy package to enable limited-income households to access affordable housing, and addresses distortions in factor markets; and designing the foundations and key elements of the national affordable housing program for Egypt, which aims to enable the delivery of 500,000 affordable housing units in the coming six years. This study critically analyzes the existing situation on housing supply in urban areas in Egypt. This includes examining existing formal and informal mechanisms for the supply/ delivery of urban housing in Egypt, institutions responsible for supply and regulation, the characteristics of the formal and informal housing stock (supply trends, prices, construction and factor market costs, etc), and the institutional and regulatory framework governing urban/ land use planning and development in Egypt.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05) World Bank
    Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    The Container Port Performance Index 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18) World Bank
    The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.