Publication:
The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa

dc.contributor.author World Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned 2014-11-20T16:16:31Z
dc.date.available 2014-11-20T16:16:31Z
dc.date.issued 2014-11-20
dc.description.abstract Beyond the terrible toll in human lives and suffering, the Ebola epidemic currently afflicting West Africa is already having a measurable economic impact in terms of forgone output; higher fiscal deficits; rising prices; lower real household incomes and greater poverty. These economic impacts include the costs of healthcare and forgone productivity of those directly affected but, more importantly, they arise from choices by others to avoid exposure to the disease, called 'aversion behavior'. This report provides a systematic analysis of the channels of economic impact and the likely magnitude of that impact for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, as well as West Africa as a whole. The short-term (2014) impact of Ebola on economic output is on the order of US$359 million in foregone output in 2013 prices. Two alternative scenarios are used to estimate the medium-term (2015) impact of the epidemic. A 'Low Ebola' scenario corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries, while 'High Ebola' corresponds to slower containment in the core three countries, with some broader regional contagion. The estimates of the GDP lost as a result of the epidemic in the core three countries for 2015 alone sum to US$97 million under Low Ebola (implying some recovery from 2014), and US$809 million under High Ebola (in 2013 dollars). Over the medium term, however, both epidemiological and economic contagion in the broader sub-region of West Africa is likely. This report uses a multi-country general equilibrium model to estimate the medium-term impact on output for West Africa as a whole. Under Low Ebola, the loss in GDP for the sub-region is estimated to be US$2.2 billion in 2014 and US$1.6 billion in 2015. Under High Ebola, the estimates are US$7.4 billion in 2014, and US$25.2 billion in 2015. This analysis shows that the economic impacts are already very serious in the core three countries - particularly Liberia and Sierra Leone - and could become catastrophic under a slow-containment, High Ebola scenario. In broader regional terms, the economic impacts could be limited if immediate national and international responses succeed in containing the epidemic and mitigating aversion behavior. If, on the other hand, the epidemic spreads into neighboring countries, some of which have much larger economies, the cumulative two-year impact could reach US$32.6 billion by the end of 2015 - almost 2.5 times the combined 2013 GDP of the core three countries. en
dc.identifier.isbn 978-1-4648-0438-0
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20592
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject Ebola
dc.subject crisis
dc.subject economic impact
dc.subject infectious disease
dc.subject health economics
dc.subject epidemic
dc.subject economic contagion
dc.subject economic output
dc.subject productivity
dc.subject fiscal deficits
dc.subject poverty
dc.title The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa en
dspace.entity.type Publication
okr.date.disclosure 2014-11-20
okr.doctype Publications & Research :: Publication
okr.globalpractice Health, Nutrition, and Population
okr.globalpractice Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.identifier.doi 10.1596/978-1-4648-0438-0
okr.identifier.report 92995
okr.language.supported en
okr.region.administrative Africa
okr.region.country Guinea
okr.region.country Liberia
okr.region.country Sierra Leone
okr.region.geographical West Africa
okr.relation.associatedurl https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20599
okr.relation.associatedurl https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20218
okr.relation.associatedurl https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20396
okr.relation.associatedurl https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21303
okr.relation.associatedurl https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21893
okr.relation.associatedurl https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21965
okr.topic Health, Nutrition and Population
okr.topic Health, Nutrition and Population :: Communicable Diseases
okr.topic Health, Nutrition and Population :: Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topic Health, Nutrition and Population :: Health Economics & Finance
okr.topic Health, Nutrition and Population :: Health and Poverty
okr.topic Industry
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Development Economics & Aid Effectiveness
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Forecasting
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Fiscal Adjustment
okr.unit AFRCE
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