Publication:
The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned2014-11-20T16:16:31Z
dc.date.available2014-11-20T16:16:31Z
dc.date.issued2014-11-20
dc.description.abstractBeyond the terrible toll in human lives and suffering, the Ebola epidemic currently afflicting West Africa is already having a measurable economic impact in terms of forgone output; higher fiscal deficits; rising prices; lower real household incomes and greater poverty. These economic impacts include the costs of healthcare and forgone productivity of those directly affected but, more importantly, they arise from choices by others to avoid exposure to the disease, called 'aversion behavior'. This report provides a systematic analysis of the channels of economic impact and the likely magnitude of that impact for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, as well as West Africa as a whole. The short-term (2014) impact of Ebola on economic output is on the order of US$359 million in foregone output in 2013 prices. Two alternative scenarios are used to estimate the medium-term (2015) impact of the epidemic. A 'Low Ebola' scenario corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries, while 'High Ebola' corresponds to slower containment in the core three countries, with some broader regional contagion. The estimates of the GDP lost as a result of the epidemic in the core three countries for 2015 alone sum to US$97 million under Low Ebola (implying some recovery from 2014), and US$809 million under High Ebola (in 2013 dollars). Over the medium term, however, both epidemiological and economic contagion in the broader sub-region of West Africa is likely. This report uses a multi-country general equilibrium model to estimate the medium-term impact on output for West Africa as a whole. Under Low Ebola, the loss in GDP for the sub-region is estimated to be US$2.2 billion in 2014 and US$1.6 billion in 2015. Under High Ebola, the estimates are US$7.4 billion in 2014, and US$25.2 billion in 2015. This analysis shows that the economic impacts are already very serious in the core three countries - particularly Liberia and Sierra Leone - and could become catastrophic under a slow-containment, High Ebola scenario. In broader regional terms, the economic impacts could be limited if immediate national and international responses succeed in containing the epidemic and mitigating aversion behavior. If, on the other hand, the epidemic spreads into neighboring countries, some of which have much larger economies, the cumulative two-year impact could reach US$32.6 billion by the end of 2015 - almost 2.5 times the combined 2013 GDP of the core three countries.en
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/978-1-4648-0438-0
dc.identifier.isbn978-1-4648-0438-0
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/20592
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectEbola
dc.subjectcrisis
dc.subjecteconomic impact
dc.subjectinfectious disease
dc.subjecthealth economics
dc.subjectepidemic
dc.subjecteconomic contagion
dc.subjecteconomic output
dc.subjectproductivity
dc.subjectfiscal deficits
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.titleThe Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africaen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2014-11-20
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Publication
okr.globalpracticeHealth, Nutrition, and Population
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.guid194681468119639844
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/978-1-4648-0438-0
okr.identifier.report92995
okr.language.supporteden
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.countryGuinea
okr.region.countryLiberia
okr.region.countrySierra Leone
okr.region.geographicalWest Africa
okr.relation.associatedurlhttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20599
okr.relation.associatedurlhttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20218
okr.relation.associatedurlhttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20396
okr.relation.associatedurlhttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21303
okr.relation.associatedurlhttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21893
okr.relation.associatedurlhttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21965
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Communicable Diseases
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Health Economics & Finance
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Health and Poverty
okr.topicIndustry
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Development Economics & Aid Effectiveness
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal Adjustment
okr.unitAFRCE
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