Publication:
Malaysia Economic Monitor, November 2009: Repositioning for Growth

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (3.32 MB)
722 downloads
English Text (319.69 KB)
183 downloads
Published
2009-11
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Malaysia is emerging from one of the worst export slumps in its economic history as manufacturing and exports have started growing again. With East Asia leading the recovery and advanced economies showing progressive improvement, the Malaysian economy is projected to grow at 4.1 percent in 2010, following a contraction of 2.3 percent in 2009. The medium-term outlook remains promising with growth reaching 5.6 and 5.9 percent in 2011 and 2012, respectively, though that will depend on sustained global recovery from the crisis. The overriding medium-term challenge is for the Malaysian economy to join the select group of high-income countries. Malaysia has experienced solid growth over the last decades, but has relied on an economic model predominantly based on capital accumulation, although private investment rates never recovered from their 20 percentage point fall after the Asian 1997/98 crisis and are now among the lowest in the region. For Malaysia to climb the next step up the income ladder, it needs to focus on improving the investment climate to raise investment rates and focus on productivity growth. Against this backdrop, the authorities are developing a 'new economic model,' which will be squarely centered on boosting productivity. Promising reforms have already been announced in the areas of services and foreign direct investment, which will help revitalize private investment.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2009. Malaysia Economic Monitor, November 2009: Repositioning for Growth. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3132 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2012
    (World Bank, Jakarta, 2012-10) World Bank
    The Indonesia economic quarterly reports on and synthesizes the past three months' key developments in Indonesia's economy. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy for the outlook for Indonesia's economic and social welfare. Indonesia's economic growth has so far remained resilient to the weakness in the global economy. Amidst a still uncertain outlook, Indonesia will need to prepare itself for the potential consequences of China's slowdown and additional falls in commodity prices, and for the possibility of renewed turbulence in financial and commodity markets. Continuing to strengthen the policy framework to deal with shocks and building economic resilience through improvements in the quality of spending and in the regulatory environment will be key to maintaining, and improving further, Indonesia's strong recent growth performance. Progress towards these goals could be tested as the 2014 election year approaches. Indonesia's economy maintained its robust pace of growth in the second quarter of 2012, expanding by 6.4 percent year-on-year, up slightly from 6.3 percent in the first quarter. Buoyant private consumption continued to lift domestic demand, and investment spending also increased strongly. Despite the rapid pace of economic activity, consumer price inflation has remained moderate to date. Headline CPI inflation fell back to 4.3 percent year-on-year in September after edging up to 4.6 percent in August, when it was pulled higher temporarily by the Idul Fitri holidays. Core inflation has remained stable, just above 4 percent. Indonesia's current account moved further into deficit in the second quarter of 2012. Structurally, the trend towards current account deficits reflects consistently strong domestic investment relative to the level of domestic savings. The slowdown in exports over 2012, alongside generally strong import demand, has seen the large goods trade balance surpluses of recent years narrow and this, coupled with consistent net outflows in the income and services sub-accounts, moved the overall current account into a deficit of 3.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2012.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2014 : Investment in Flux
    (Washington, DC, 2014-03) World Bank
    Indonesia's economy continues to adjust to weaker terms of trade and tighter external financing conditions, with the composition of growth tilting more towards net exports, and economic growth slowing moderately. While this shift is positive for macroeconomic stability, it has to date been based primarily on tighter monetary policy and the depreciation of the Rupiah in 2013, the effects of which are continuing to play out. To further reduce Indonesia's vulnerability to external shocks, to minimize the risks of a more marked cyclical slowdown in growth, and to convert the near-term macro adjustment into strong, sustained growth over the longer term, further progress on long-standing policy priorities is warranted. Progress in three key areas can support both near-term macro stability and Indonesia's long-term economic prospects. First, there is a need to support domestic and foreign investor confidence. Recent policy and regulatory developments, including the partial ban on mineral exports, have increased uncertainty, may weigh on investment across the economy, and compound the usual difficulty of predicting policy ahead of elections. Given rising fiscal pressures from slower revenue growth and higher fuel subsidy costs, the second priority is to broaden the revenue base and improve the quality of spending, notably by reducing energy subsidy expenditure. These measures would also increase available fiscal space for more equitable, pro-growth spending. Third, credible progress is needed on addressing structural impediments to stronger and more inclusive growth, namely infrastructure and worker skills gaps, and factor and product market constraints. The policy environment is naturally constrained ahead of legislative elections in April and the presidential election in July. However, in light of ongoing economic risks and Indonesia's ambitious development agenda, laying the groundwork for future reforms, minimizing policy uncertainty, and making continued reform progress in some areas, should remain a priority.
  • Publication
    Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding
    (Washington, DC, 2013-09) World Bank
    Russia's economy lost steam in 2013. Growth slowed to 1.4 percent in the first half (H1) of 2013, compared to 4.5 percent in H1 2012. This report examines in its first part several aspects of the economic slowdown. It shows that the slowdown was largely the result of weaker demand, which was due to a combination of external and domestic factors, some of which are cyclical and others structural. The structural challenges to the Russian economy and its growth, such as non-competitive sectors and markets, are another important factor to consider in the economic slowdown. The special focus note in part three of this report discusses the link between growth patterns in Russia, firm survival and diversification in manufacturing and will also highlight the impact of limited competition as a structural constraint. This note looks at the role of growth volatility as a possible explanation. It examines the role of surges and slumps in manufacturing output and its microeconomic implications in the dynamics of emergence and sustainability of nascent economic activities. The dynamics of the industrial output of the economy as whole, between 1993 and 2009, are the focus of this study. This note examines the downturns that magnify and accelerate the cleansing effects to the economy in forcing inefficient firms to exit, as well as the upturns that set the foundations of economic diversification by giving new economic activities the opportunity to emerge. This note has three main findings. First, Russian manufacturing output growth is characterized by a higher volatility than other comparator countries. Second, this volatility is mostly driven by more numerous, deeper and longer slumps and is mostly associated with aggregate slumps that have yearly effects. Third, while the economic surges increase the probability that productive firms remain in the market, the same is not true of economic slumps-older firms, not necessarily more productive ones, are more likely to survive the downturn. Furthermore, in sectors in which competition is less fierce, firms have a higher likelihood of weathering a slump.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Quarterly, December 2013 : Slower Growth, High Risks
    (Washington, DC, 2013-12) World Bank
    The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. This document summarizes the findings of the IEQ for the last quarter of 2013. The final quarter has seen the continuing adjustment of the Indonesian economy to more subdued commodity prices and tighter external financing conditions, and to the related pressures on external balances. Policies have responded, particularly through tighter monetary conditions, the currency has depreciated substantially in real terms, and investment spending and output growth have weakened. These developments are broadly supportive of continued macroeconomic stability, including by helping to lower the current account deficit, although their impact continues to play out, adding additional uncertainty to the path of the domestic economy. At the same time, the international environment is also shifting, with global growth expected to improve, bringing potential policy changes, notably in US monetary policy, which could add to the pressures on Indonesia's external financing position. In light of the slower pace of growth, and the risks facing the economy, there is a strong need for Indonesia to augment the recent macro focus on tighter monetary policy, exchange rate adjustment and import compression, with deeper reforms to lift export performance and support investment inflows.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2013 : Adjusting to Pressures
    (Washington, DC, 2013-07) World Bank
    The second quarter of 2013 was an eventful one as Indonesia's economy, policy settings and financial markets adjusted to pressures which have been mounting over recent quarters and to shifts in the global environment. Following slightly weaker-than-expected growth in the first quarter, there are signs that domestic demand, particularly investment, has continued to moderate. On the fiscal front, the combination of lower revenues and higher subsidy spending continued to pressure public finances. A revised Budget, incorporating a long a waited increase in subsidized fuel prices, along with a comprehensive compensation package to reduce the impact of higher fuel prices on the poor, was approved on June 17. Meanwhile, international financial markets have reacted strongly to the prospect of quantitative easing in the US winding down in coming quarters, triggering a major sell-off in emerging market assets, including Indonesia, prompting Bank Indonesia (BI) to adjust interest rates higher.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Development Report 2002
    (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002) World Bank
    Markets should give incentives to engage in wider trade, forge the ability to use resources, and skills fully, and provide the opportunity to increase incomes, and accumulate assets. Despite underlying problems, many people in both developed, and developing countries do engage in productive, and rewarding market activity, for income from market participation is the key to economic growth for nations, and to reducing poverty for individuals. This report is about enhancing opportunities for poor people in markets, and empower them, provided regulatory frameworks, law enforcement, and organizational promotion accompany market transactions. Hence, building institutions that support the development of markets is the primary focus of this report, analyzing what institutions do to promote growth, and facilitate access, and suggesting how to build effective institutions. In understanding what drives institutional change, the report emphasizes the importance of history, highlighting the need to ensure effective institutions through: a design that complements existing institutions, human capabilities, and available technologies; innovations to identify both institutions that work, and those that do not; communities of market players connected through open information, and trade; and, the promotion of competition among jurisdictions, firms, and individuals. This overview is a presage to the World Development Report 2002, which shows that institutional strength ensures stable, and inclusive growth.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Reconstructing 2010–2022 Poverty and Inequality Trends in Bangladesh
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-05) Fernandez, Jaime; Olivieri, Sergio; Wambile, Ayago
    The 2022 Household Income and Expenditure Survey enhances fieldwork, data management, and information quality but poses comparability challenges with previous rounds. This study proposes a two-step process based on statistical matching to fill the information gap in previous survey rounds. This methodology uses the more comprehensive 2022 information to reconstruct comparable consumption measures over time. This allows for a consistent assessment of poverty and inequality measures, providing insights into the changes for policy makers, researchers, and stakeholders over the years. The results reveal that integrating this correction into previous survey rounds would have reduced poverty rates by around 10.6 percentage points between 2010 and 2016 and a further decrease of 7.8 percentage points between 2016 and 2022. Likewise, extreme poverty rates would have witnessed a decline of approximately 3 percentage points in the earlier period and a more substantial drop of 3.6 percentage points in the more recent one. These poverty reduction trends mirror improvements in other dimensions of well-being, like reductions in infant mortality and stunting and increases in access to electricity, sanitary toilets, and literacy rates.
  • Publication
    Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-06) World Bank Group
    The Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores the impact of climate change and global decarbonization on Tajikistan’s development. It identifies key areas to enhance climate resilience and deepen decarbonization and outlines priority recommendations for a successful green transition in Tajikistan, requiring structural reforms, climate-conscious policies, and inclusive strategies for a resilient and sustainable future. Despite economic growth and poverty reduction over the past two decades, Tajikistan's reliance on natural resources and remittances has led to unsustainable development, depleting natural capital and limiting job creation. The government’s green transition plan focuses on renewable energy, promising energy security, economic growth, and regional electricity exports. However, further efforts are needed for a resilient development path, including a complementary reform program to bring significant economic benefits, climate adaptation, and low-carbon development that will benefit Tajikistan and Central Asia's electricity systems. Climate change poses significant risks, threatening water security, agricultural productivity, and infrastructure, potentially reducing GDP per capita by 5-6% by mid-century and pushing 100,000 people into poverty. Additional adaptation measures are crucial, focusing on water management, resilient landscapes, climate-smart agriculture, and disaster risk management. A low-carbon development pathway offers a more resilient and prosperous future, with near net-zero emissions in energy and waste sectors by 2050, boosting economic growth, and job creation and reducing air pollution. Achieving these goals requires substantial investments and institutional reforms to mobilize private capital and attract green foreign investment. Development partners can provide financial assistance, technical expertise, and capacity building.