Publication: The Role of Historical Christian Missions in the Location of World Bank Aid in Africa
Loading...
Published
2020-02
ISSN
Date
2020-02-13
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This article documents a positive and sizable correlation between the location of historical Christian missions and the allocation of present-day World Bank aid at the grid-cell level in Africa. The correlation is robust to an extensive set of geographical and historical control variables that predict settlement of missions. The study finds no correlation with aid effectiveness, as measured by project ratings and survey-based development indicators. Mission areas display a different political aid cycle than other areas, whereby new projects are less likely to arrive in years with new presidents. Hence, political connections between mission areas and central governments could be one likely explanation for the correlation between missions and aid.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Alpino, Matteo; Hammersmark, Eivind Moe. 2020. The Role of Historical Christian Missions in the Location of World Bank Aid in Africa. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9146. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33322 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18)This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.Publication External Finance in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: A Tale of Differences in Vulnerabilities(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-04)Over the past two decades, many emerging markets and developing economies have been viewed as increasingly resilient to external financial shocks. This paper assesses whether such resilience is broadly shared across emerging markets and developing economies by classifying them into three tiers based on economic size, income level, institutional strength, and financial integration. The analysis shows that first-tier emerging markets and developing economies have improved their external balance sheets and reduced dependence on official support. However, second- and third-tier emerging markets and developing economies have experienced growing external vulnerabilities since the global financial crisis, marked by rising external debt liabilities and declining foreign exchange reserves. Using a range of indicators, including sovereign defaults, arrears, partial defaults, and International Monetary Fund lending, the paper identifies episodes of external financial distress and shows that distress remains widespread among second- and third-tier emerging markets and developing economies. The empirical analysis confirms that key components of the net international investment position—especially external debt and foreign exchange reserves—predict the onset of external financial distress, with institutional quality shaping the impact. Weak institutions amplify risks, while strong institutions mitigate them. These findings highlight the importance of recognizing heterogeneity across emerging markets and developing economies, strengthening institutional quality alongside external balance-sheet management, and rebuilding buffers to safeguard against renewed global financial stress.Publication Rigging the Scores: Corruption through Scoring Rule Manipulation in Public Procurement Auctions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-02)Public procurement is highly susceptible to corruption, especially in developing countries. Although open auctions are widely adopted to curb it, this paper finds that corruption remains prevalent even within this procurement format. Procurement officers can collaborate with firms to manipulate scoring rules, ensuring predetermined winners, while corrupt firms submit noncompetitive bids to meet minimum bidder requirements. Using extensive data from Chinese public procurement auctions, the paper introduces model-driven statistical tools to detect such corruption, identifying a corruption rate of 65 percent. A procurement expert audit survey confirms the tools’ reliability, with a 91 percent probability that experts recognize suspicious scoring rules when flagged. Firm-level analysis reveals that local, state-owned, and less productive firms are favored in corrupt auctions. Lastly, the paper explores policy implications. Analysis of the national anti-corruption campaign since 2012 suggests that general investigations may be insufficient to address deeply ingrained corrupt practices. Using counterfactuals based on an estimated structural model, the paper shows that implementing anonymous call-for-tender evaluations could improve social welfare by 10 percent by eliminating suspicious rules and encouraging broader participation.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Role of Historical Christian Missions in the Location of World Bank Aid in Africa(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02-05)This article documents a positive and sizable correlation between the location of historical Christian missions and the allocation of present-day World Bank aid at the grid-cell level in Africa. The correlation is robust to an extensive set of geographical and historical control variables that predict settlement of missions. The study finds no correlation with aid effectiveness, as measured by project ratings and survey-based development indicators. Mission areas display a different political aid cycle than other areas, whereby new projects are less likely to arrive in years with new presidents. Hence, political connections between mission areas and central governments could be one likely explanation for the correlation between missions and aid.Publication Improving the World Bank's Development Effectiveness : What Does Evaluation Show?(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2005)The pace of change in the overall performance of the developing world has not altered markedly over the past 20 years. The number of people living in extreme poverty declined from 1.5 billion in 1980 (40 percent of population), to 1.2 billion in 1990 (28 percent of population), to 1.1 billion in 2001 (21 percent of population). Growth per capita has followed much the same profile. In the 1980s, only about two-thirds of developing countries showed positive per capita income growth, and this percentage remains unchanged. Life expectancy and literacy indicators show overall improvements, but some regions show worrisome trends. There has been slow and steady progress in overall development outcomes during the period, but the speed and scale of change remain static. These averages, of course, mask huge differences across regions, with very worrisome increases in poverty and continued low growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Bank has transformed itself significantly in the past 10 years, and should be ready for further adjustments to current climate of rapid change. Greater selectivity, more flexibility, and improved efficiency within its chosen areas of intervention are needed going forward if a global institution such as the Bank is to remain useful and relevant and show concrete results in a fast-changing world.Publication A Guide to the World Bank(Washington, DC, 2003)This book is intended for the wide range of people around the world who need basic information about the work of the Bank Group. This audience includes people working in all aspects of development, students, members of the general public, and staff members of the Bank Group itself. Because this audience is so broad, the text emphasizes the organizational and conceptual divisions of the Bank Group's activities and guides readers to potential sources of more-detailed explanations of the development work in progress. The annual reports of the Bank Group institutions provide more details on the volume and types of development assistance. The annual World Bank Group Directory lists telephone contacts for individuals and departments. The following chapters explain how the World Bank Group is organized; how it operates; and how its work focuses on countries, regions, and specific topics in development. Appendixes provide further information on Bank Group contacts, on the organization's history, on country membership and the voting shares in the institutions, on the sector and thematic categories for the Bank Group's activities, and on Bank Group resources in individual countries.Publication Poverty Reduction Support Credits : An Evaluation of World Bank Support(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010)The goal of Poverty Reduction Support Credits (PRSCs), introduced in early 2001 under World Bank Interim guidelines, was to help countries implement comprehensive, country-owned development strategies to promote growth, improve social conditions, and reduce poverty. PRSCs were intended to ease conditionality and to make annual flows to recipient countries predictable and integrated with their budgets. To reduce fiduciary risks associated with budget support, PRSCs were intended to strengthen domestic budget processes. They were seen as providing a framework for donor harmonization and were meant to focus on achieving clearly defined results.Publication The World Bank Annual Report 2002(Washington, DC, 2002)This annual report covers the period from July 1, 2001, to June 30, 2002, and is prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA). The first of two volumes discusses the World Bank's goals and strategies; overviews Bank activities in fiscal year 2002; examines progress on the Millennium Development Goals and project and loan performance; addresses the social, institutional, and economic dimensions of poverty; presents regional analyses of Bank operations; and provides organizational information. The second volume comprises the complete Management's Discussion and Analysis, audited financial statments of the IBRD and IDA, and appendixes.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication The Changing Wealth of Nations 2021(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-10-27)It is now clear that a narrow focus on the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is insufficient to achieve humanity’s aspirations for sustainable prosperity. Wellfunctioning ecosystems and educated populations are requisites for sustainable wellbeing. These and other too-often-neglected ingredients of national wealth must be addressed if the development path is to be sustainable. The Changing Wealth of Nations 2021: Managing Assets for the Future provides the most comprehensive accounting of the wealth of nations, an in-depth analysis of the evolution of wealth, and pathways to build wealth for the future. This report—and the accompanying global database—firmly establishes comprehensive wealth as a measure of sustainability and a key component of country analytics. It expands the coverage of wealth accounts and improves our understanding of the quality of all assets, notably, natural capital. Wealth—the stock of produced, natural, and human capital—is measured as the sum of assets that yield a stream of benefits over time. Changes in the wealth of nations matter because they reflect the change in countries’ assets that underpin future income. Countries regularly track GDP as an indicator of their economic progress, but not wealth, and national wealth has a more direct and long-term impact on people’s lives. This report provides a new set of tools and analysis to help policy makers navigate risks and to guide collective action. Wealth accounts can be applied in macroeconomic analysis to areas of major policy concern such as climate change and natural resource management. This report can be used to look beyond GDP, to gauge nations’ economic well-being, and to promote sustainable prosperity.Publication Sourcebook on the Foundations of Social Protection Delivery Systems(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-07-30)The Sourcebook synthesizes real-world experiences and lessons learned of social protection delivery systems from around the world, with a particular focus on social and labor benefits and services. It takes a practical approach, seeking to address concrete “how-to” questions, including: How do countries deliver social protection benefits and services? How do they do so effectively and efficiently? How do they ensure dynamic inclusion, especially for the most vulnerable and needy? How do they promote better coordination and integration—not only among social protection programs but also programs in other parts of government? How can they meet the needs of their intended populations and provide a better client experience? The Sourcebook structures itself around eight key principles that can frame the delivery systems mindset: (1) delivery systems evolve over time, do so in a non-linear fashion, and are affected by the starting point(s); (2) additional efforts should be made to “do simple well”, and to do so from the start rather than trying to remedy by after-the-fact adding-on of features or aspects; (3) quality implementation matters, and weaknesses in the design or structure of any core system element will negatively impact delivery; (4) defining the “first mile” for people interface greatly affects the system and overall delivery, and is most improved when that “first mile” is understood as the weakest link in delivery systems); (5) delivery systems do not operate in a vacuum and thus should not be developed in silos; (6) delivery systems can contribute more broadly to government’s ability to intervene in other sectors, such as health insurance subsidies, scholarships, social energy tariffs, housing benefits, and legal services; (7) there is no single blueprint for delivery systems, but there are commonalities and those common elements constitute the core of the delivery systems framework; (8) inclusion and coordination are pervasive and perennial dual challenges, and they contribute to the objectives of effectiveness and efficiency.Publication The Government Analytics Handbook(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-09-28)The Government Analytics Handbook presents frontier evidence and practitioner insights on how to leverage data to strengthen public administration. Covering a range of microdata sources—such as administrative data and public servant surveys—as well as tools and resources for undertaking the analytics, it transforms the ability of governments to take a data-informed approach to diagnose and improve how public organizations work. The "Handbook" is a must-have for practitioners, policy makers, academics, and government agencies. It is available as a single volume in print or digital formats, and as chapters for modular use. Additional tools, data and background information are available at worldbank.org/governmentanalytics. “Governments have long been assessed using aggregate governance indicators, giving us little insight into their diversity and how they can practically be improved. This pioneering handbook shows how microdata can be used to give scholars and practitioners granular and real insights into how states work, and practical guidance on the process of state-building.” —Francis Fukuyama, Stanford University, author of State-Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century - "The Government Analytics Handbook is the most comprehensive work on practically building government administration I have ever seen, helping practitioners to change public administration for the better.” —Francisco Gaetani, Special Secretary for State Transformation, Government of Brazil - “The machinery of the state is central to a country’s prosperity. This handbook provides insights and methodological tools for creating a better shared understanding of the realities of a state, to support the redesign of institutions, and improve the quality of public administration.” —James Robinson, University of Chicago, coauthor of Why Nations FailPublication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.