Publication: Maintaining High Growth: Cambodia Economic Update, April 2015
Loading...
Published
2015-04-07
ISSN
Date
2015-05-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Cambodia continues to enjoy robust growth, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Real growth in 2014 is estimated to have reached 7.0 percent. The garment sector, together with construction and services, in particular finance and real estate, continues to propel growth. However, there are signs of weaknesses in garment and agricultural production that are slightly slowing growth. Overall macroeconomic management remains appropriate. Fiscal consolidation continues with further improvements in revenue collection resulting from enhanced administration. Poverty continues to fall in Cambodia (poverty headcount rate in 2012 was 17.7 percent) although the pace of poverty reduction has declined significantly. Cambodia’s real growth rate is expected to moderate to 6.9 percent in 2015 and 2016, as it confronts stronger competition in garment exports, continued weak agriculture sector growth, and softer growth in the tourism sector. Recent developments include: the garment sector continues to be one of Cambodia’s main engines of growth, the external position remains stable, supported by healthy foreign direct investment inflows, underpinning the overall macroeconomic stability, Exchange rate targeting continues to support price stability, inflation has eased significantly with continuing depressed food prices and the recent decline in oil prices, and financial deepening continues, supporting economic expansion as deposit and credit growth accelerated quickly in 2014.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2015. Maintaining High Growth: Cambodia Economic Update, April 2015. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21904 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Taking Stock, June 2010(World Bank, Hanoi, 2010-06)Vietnam has navigated the global crisis better than many other countries. GDP grew by 5.3 percent in 2009, accelerating to 6.9 percent in the last quarter of the year. At 5.8 percent, the figure for the first quarter of 2010 was less impressive, but claims that growth has slowed down are most probably unwarranted. Exports declined in 2009, for the first time since the beginning of economic reforms, but their decline was smaller than in other countries of the region. By now export growth is converging back to the 30 percent annual growth rate observed before the crisis. Inflation, which had reached 19.9 percent in 2008, was down to 6.5 percent in 2009. While there were some worrying signs of inflation acceleration in late 2009 and early 2010, by now the monthly increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is again moderate. And as in previous years, there were no banking crises despite the continuation of macroeconomic turbulence. More generally, lack of clarity by markets forces the government to overshoot in its policy reactions. Because markets are not sure to understand what the government is up to, they need to see very strong action in order to be convinced that the right course of action has been taken. As a result, Vietnam has had to go through dramatic shifts in the policy stance as circumstances changed. The stabilization policies of 2008 effectively 'killed' the real estate bubble and brought inflation rates to zero in just a few months, but such speed took a toll on economic activity. The stimulus policies of 2009 were equally strong and determined, but they ended up putting too much pressure on international reserves. With more information disclosure and better communication, policy shifts could perhaps be less extreme. Combined with stronger macroeconomic management, it should be possible for Vietnam to gradually free itself from the 'stop-and-go' cycle that has characterized macroeconomic policies over the last three years.Publication Macroeconomic Shocks and Banking Sector Developments in Egypt(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)From 2008 to 2011, Egypt was hit by significant shocks, both global and country-specific. This paper assesses the impact of the resulting macroeconomic instability on the banking sector, and examines its role as a shock absorber. The Central Bank of Egypt accommodated the shocks by supplying liquidity to the market. The paper verifies a change in the fiscal regime from one in which the primary fiscal balance was used an instrument to stabilize the public debt ratio to one in which the policy instrument stopped playing that role and affected investors' assessment of the risk of holding public debt. This pattern suggests that fiscal conditions influenced exchange rate and price expectations originating a fiscal dominance situation in which the Central Bank could not control inflation. Hence, the Central Bank lacked functional independence in spite of its de jure independence, which underscores the importance of strengthening institutions that facilitate policy coordination and allow policy to be more predictable. The government also funds itself through non-market mechanisms, in a typical financial repression scheme. The paper estimates the revenue from financial repression at about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, which together with the revenues from seignoriage add up to close to 50 percent of the budgeted tax revenues, indicating the need for an in-depth review of the governance of the public banks and the funding of public sector activities. Finally, the paper estimates the impact of shocks to macroeconomic variables on loan portfolio quality and bank capital.Publication Kenya Economic Update, June 2005, No. 12(2015-06-01)Kenya’s economic performance remains solid, underpinned by strong infrastructure spending and consumer demand, which are driving growth. Growth in 2015 is estimated at 5.4 percent, a 0.6 percent downward revision from its estimate in December 2014. The revision reflects the strong headwinds the economy is facing in the foreign exchange market and the monetary policy response to calm those fears.Publication Kazakhstan Growth Slows as External Pressures Rise : Kazakhstan Economic Update, Fall 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-09-30)Kazakhstan is experiencing slower economic growth in 2014 due to negative supply- and demand-side effects. The Kazakh authorities are using expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand. An uncertain global economic environment and regional geopolitical tensions pose risks to the economic outlook of Kazakhstan. If the economic slowdown starts to have a negative effect on the labor market, the government has instruments to mitigate its impact on the most vulnerable population. The government has identified a set of reforms that are expected to help diversify the economy and expand the non-oil sector. They have launched a major program of support for the development of small- and medium-sized enterprises, including by addressing the constraints related to access to credit. They are also working to improve the national regulatory and governance framework that will enhance the transparency and efficiency of economic transactions, facilitate private sector participation, and improve service delivery to the population. Ongoing reforms in customs administration and the courts are part of its reform agenda.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2010(World Bank, 2010)The world economy is emerging from the throes of a historically deep and synchronized recession provoked by the bursting of a global financial bubble. The consequences of the initial bubble and the crisis have been felt in virtually every economy, whether or not it participated directly in the risky behaviors that precipitated the boom-and-bust cycle. And while growth rates have picked up, the depth of the recession means that it will take years before unemployment and spare capacity are reabsorbed. This year's global economic prospects examines the consequences of the crisis for both the short and medium term growth prospects of developing countries. It concludes that the crisis and the regulatory reaction to the financial excesses of the preceding several years may have lasting impacts on financial markets, raising borrowing costs and lowering levels of credit and international capital flows. As a result, the rate of growth of potential output in developing countries may be reduced by between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points annually over the next five to seven years as economies adjust to tighter financial conditions. Overall, the level of potential output in developing countries could be reduced by between 3.4 and 8 percent over the long run, compared with its pre-crisis path. The report further finds that the very liquid conditions of the first half of the decade contributed to the expansion in credit available in developing countries and that this expansion was responsible for about 40 percent of the approximately 1.5 percentage point acceleration of the pace at which many developing-country economies could grow without generating significant inflation. While developing countries probably cannot reverse the expected tightening in international financial conditions, there is considerable scope for reducing domestic borrowing costs, or increasing productivity and thereby regaining the higher growth path that the crisis has derailed.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.