Publication:
How Do We Prioritize the GHG Mitigation Options?: Development of a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for the Building Sector in Armenia and Georgia

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (735.32 KB)
572 downloads
English Text (106.13 KB)
43 downloads
Published
2016-06
ISSN
Date
2016-07-06
Editor(s)
Abstract
Armenia and Georgia are taking the climate change agenda seriously and contributing to efforts for mitigating global climate change through various ways, including preparation of low-carbon development strategies for their future economic growth. The improvement of energy efficiency is one of the key elements of the low-carbon development strategies. This study develops a methodology to estimate a marginal abatement cost curve for energy efficiency measures and applies it to the building sector in both countries. The study finds that among the various energy efficiency measures considered, the replacement of energy inefficient lightbulbs (incandescent lamps) with efficient lightbulbs is the most cost-effective measure in saving energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector. Most energy efficiency improvement options considered in the study would produce net economic benefits even if the value of reduced carbon is not taken into account.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Timilsina, Govinda; Sikharulidze, Anna; Karapoghosyan, Eduard; Shatvoryan, Suren. 2016. How Do We Prioritize the GHG Mitigation Options?: Development of a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for the Building Sector in Armenia and Georgia. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7703. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24619 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08) Baez, Javier E.; Kshirsagar, Varun
    Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.
  • Publication
    The Evolution of Local Participatory Democracy in Nepal
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05) Bhusal, Thaneshwar; Breen, Michael G; Rao, Vijayendra
    Nepal is, according to its constitution, among the world’s most decentralized countries, with a long and complex tradition of local-level public participation. This paper traces the evolution of Nepal’s modern participatory institutions, examining the extent to which they are “induced” by external interventions versus being “organically” rooted in indigenous practices. The paper identifies three broad phases: an initial focus on participation in project implementation; a subsequent phase that expanded citizen engagement; and a third phase of citizen empowerment, culminating in the 2015 federal constitution, which granted unprecedented local autonomy. The analysis yields five key findings. First, over the past 50 years, successive reforms have progressively expanded opportunities for citizens to influence local decision-making. Second, these reforms have integrated traditional participatory mechanisms into formal institutions of local government. Third, although central-level initiatives exist, most participatory platforms continue to operate at the local level. Fourth, the federal constitution has created a new landscape of local democracy, embedding autonomy and accountability. Fifth, although they are still valued in many ethnic and territorial communities, traditional participatory practices are gradually disappearing. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations to help donor agencies and governments strengthen Nepal’s democratic trajectory. It argues that effective interventions should build on Nepal’s deep participatory traditions while recognizing the constitutional reality of far-reaching local autonomy.
  • Publication
    Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Kim, Galileu; Kumar, Tanu; Ramalho, Rita; Russell, Stuart
    State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.
  • Publication
    Closing the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship: Overcoming Challenges in Law and Practice for Female Entrepreneurs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Behr, Daniela M.; Xi, Yue
    Despite significant strides toward gender equality, women around the world continue to encounter systemic obstacles that hinder their entrepreneurial success. This paper systematically reviews the literature on the barriers female entrepreneurs face and the solutions proposed to overcome these challenges. It discusses institutional factors, financial factors, human capital factors, and social and cultural factors. The literature overview is complemented by a series of stylized facts that illustrate how overcoming some of these existing barriers is correlated with improved women’s entrepreneurship and female labor force participation, drawing on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law database as well as the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The findings underscore the need for creating an enabling environment where women can thrive as entrepreneurs.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Transition to a Low-Emissions Economy in Poland
    (Washington, DC, 2011-02) World Bank
    Against the backdrop of agreement that global coordinated action is needed to prevent dangerous climate change, individual countries are thinking through the implications of climate action for their economies and people. The rest of the report is organized along the following lines. The next section provides background on Poland's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Then section B sets out Poland's existing carbon abatement targets and key policy challenges related to GHG mitigation. The next section summarizes the innovative methodological approach used by the report. Section D discusses the methods and implications of constructing business-as-usual or reference scenarios. Section E provides the major findings from the first model, the engineering approach, on the costs of measures aimed at GHG mitigation for Poland. Section F explains how these findings are expanded and revised by incorporation into the first macroeconomic model. Section G provides an analysis of the economic impact through 2020 of mitigation measures within the constraints of European Union (EU) policy arrangements. Section H examines the energy sector and how Section E's findings are enhanced by optimization of the structure of the energy sector. Section I takes a first look at the challenges of energy efficiency. Section J provides additional analysis of the transport sector. The last section provides some notes on additional issues and further work.
  • Publication
    Applying Abatement Cost Curve Methodology for Low-Carbon Strategy in Changning District, Shanghai
    (Washington, DC, 2013-11) World Bank
    The speed and scale of urbanization provide an unprecedented opportunity in the coming years to invest in clean energy technologies to contain carbon emissions from the country's sprawling cities. Therefore, supporting low carbon cities is one of the government's top priorities. Shanghai municipal and changning district governments are firmly committed to the transition to a low-carbon city and requested for the World Bank's support in making changning district and Shanghai leaders in designing novel and efficient ways to achieve carbon-intensity-reduction targets. This report documents the methodology of and key findings from applying abatement cost curves and scenarios to set low-carbon targets and define cost-effective low-carbon investment programs in Changning district, Shanghai. At the request of changning district government, the Bank team supported a Shanghai energy conservation institution, assisted by an international firm, in conducting a comprehensive survey of buildings in Hongqiao area in the changning district, and in developing carbon dioxide (CO2) abatement cost curves to identify the abatement potential, cost, and ease of implementation of various mitigation measures. Three alternative abatement scenarios were developed to establish an ambitious low-carbon target for Hongqiao area. The use of CO2 abatement cost curves, bottom-up investigation surveys, and ease-of-implementation considerations for defining an investment program to reduce CO2 emissions were the first of its kind at the time. The abatement cost curve developed under this upstream analytical work allowed the district government to make informed decisions about medium-term targets for CO2 abatement and to identify priority actions and investments to meet them. This study also provides the solid analytical underpinning for the design of the World Bank and Global Environment Facility (GEF) green energy for low-carbon city in Shanghai project. It includes the following chapters: executive summary; the objectives: 12th five-year plan carbon intensity reduction target and beyond; the methodology: a bottom-up and comprehensive approach; the bottom-up survey: data collection and identification of abatement technologies; the abatement measures: carbon abatement cost curves; the abatement priorities: abatement technologies ranked by cost and ease of implementation; the low-carbon targets: abatement scenarios for 2015 and 2020; from abatement cost curve to implementation: green energy for low-carbon city in Shanghai project; and the significance: potential replications in other cities.
  • Publication
    Energy
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010) Schaeffer, Roberto; Szklo, Alexandre; de Gouvello, Christophe
    This report synthesizes the findings for the energy sector of a broader study, the Brazil low carbon study, which was undertaken by the World Bank in its initiative to support Brazil's integrated effort towards reducing national and global emissions of greenhouse gases while promoting long term development. The main aim of the study is to examine the potential for abating Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil in the energy area and to assess the relative costs of doing so for the time frame 2010-2030. Basically the study seeks to demonstrate by how much, by when and at what cost Brazil could reduce its GHG energy sector emissions. Given its special features, the fuel use and emissions of greenhouse gases in the transportation sector are dealt with in another report of this project. In addition the study aims to provide information for the Brazilian government to enable it to develop a long-term strategy (2030) for reducing carbon in the energy area (except the transport sector) and, more specifically, to provide the technical input needed for evaluating the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions produced by the key economic sectors. In short, the study seeks to identify the different options and opportunities that could justify possible international resources being allocated to Brazil. The teams involved in the study needed first to focus on the proposed mitigation and carbon sequestering options and then, after identifying these proposals, to focus on existing barriers to the successful deployment of these options and suggest a set of public policies which could be mobilized to overcome them. The study also provides estimates of the scale of investments and operating costs likely to be involved, as well as a mitigation cost curve.
  • Publication
    Transition to a Low Carbon Economy in Poland
    (Washington, DC, 2011-10) World Bank
    Transition to a low carbon economy in Poland is a study by the World Bank for the Polish Government, supported by the UK Department for International Development and donors to the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). The study poses the question of how Poland, an European Union (EU) member state, an industrialized 'annex one' country for the purposes of international climate discussions, and an Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member, can successfully transition to a low carbon economy as successfully as it underwent transition to a market economy in the early 1990s. Transition to a low carbon economy in Poland provides a detailed assessment of many aspects of a low carbon growth strategy for Poland, developing insights via a suite of models that should provide ongoing assistance to policymakers. These policymakers may find reassuring the main message that Poland's transition to a low carbon economy, while not free or simple is affordable. However, capturing the full package of technologically feasible and economically sensible abatement measures requires coordinated and early action by the government.
  • Publication
    Fiscal Implications of Climate Change
    (2012-01-01) Jones, Benjamin; Keen, Michael; Strand, Jon
    This paper provides a primer on the fiscal implications of climate change, in particular the policies for responding to it. Many of the complicated challenges that arise in limiting climate change (through greenhouse gas emissions mitigation), and in dealing with the effects that remain (through adaptation to climate change impacts), are of a fiscal nature. While mitigation has the potential to raise substantial public revenue (through charges on greenhouse gas emissions), adaptation largely leads to fiscal outlays. Policies may unduly favor public spending (on technological solutions to limit emissions, and on adaptation), over policies that lead to more public revenue being raised (emissions charges). The pervasive uncertainties that surround climate change make the design of proper policy responses even more complex. This applies especially to policies for mitigation of emissions, since agreement on and international enforcement of cooperative abatement policies are exceedingly difficult to achieve, and there is as yet no common view on how to compare nearer-term costs of mitigation to longer-term benefits.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16) Gatti, Roberta; Torres, Jesica; Elmallakh, Nelly; Mele, Gianluca; Faurès, Diego; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam; Suvanov, Ilias
    This issue of the MENA Economic Update presents a summary of recent macroeconomic trends, including an update of the conflict centered in Gaza and its regional spillovers, alongside an analysis of factors that shape the long-term growth potential of the region, with special attention to the persistent effects of conflicts. A modest uptick in growth is forecast for 2024, which nonetheless masks important disparities within the region. The acceleration is driven by the high-income oil exporters, while growth is expected to decelerate among developing MENA countries, both developing oil exporters and developing oil importers. Despite current challenges, the region can dramatically boost growth by better allocating talent in the labor market, leveraging its strategic location, and promoting innovation. Closing the gender employment gap, rethinking the footprint of the public sector, and facilitating technology transfers through trade under enhanced data quality and transparency can help the region leap toward the frontier. Peace is a pre-condition for catching up to the frontier, as conflict can undo decades of progress, delaying economic development by generations.
  • Publication
    Distributed Ledger Technology and Blockchain
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017) Natarajan, Harish; Krause, Solvej; Gradstein, Helen
    The financial sector is currently undergoing a major transformation, brought about by the rapid development and spread of new technologies. The confluence of ‘finance’ and ‘technology’ is often referred to as ‘Fintech’, typically describing companies or innovations that employ new technologies to improve or innovate financial services. ‘Fintech’ developments are seen across all areas of the financial sector, including payments and financial infrastructures, consumer and SMElending, insurance, investment management, and venture financing. This note on distributed ledger technology (DLT) and blockchains is part of a series of short notes that explore new trends and developments in Fintech and analyze their potential relevance for WBG activities. Forthcoming notes in this series will cover marketplace lending, ‘InsureTech’, and other topics. This note outlines the mechanisms, origins, and key characteristics of DLT; the difference between ‘public’ and ‘private’ DLT; the technology’s main advantages, challenges, and risks; relevant examples of DLT applications (with a focus on financial sector applications); and a brief overview of activities by governments, multilateral organization, and other stakeholders in this space. Finally, this note proposes next steps for the World Bank to study and evaluate areas where DLT could potentially be integrated into World Bank financial sector operations.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Special Economic Zones
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017) World Bank Group
    Policy-makers across developing economies are implementing different forms of special economic zones (SEZs): programs intended to catalyze economic growth. The SEZ program is aimed at attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to increase firm-level investment and improve firm-level productivity by enhancing firm-level coordination, networks, and innovation. The purpose of this operational review is to inform and to identify and document lessons from the application of these policies across countries and across the World Bank’s project portfolio. The report reviews the SEZ programs, and the characteristics and contexts that are associated with the success of SEZ policies. The report also adds to the general SEZ debate of whether the benefits generated by SEZs are restricted to the firms within the walls of the SEZs with limited social benefit; or whether SEZs eventually lead to spillovers that support structural change generating high social benefits. The report is structure as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two, provides a brief literature review of SEZ theory and performance. Chapter three provides an overview of the dataset developed for this work. Chapter four presents the econometric estimation using the dataset (for the explanatory variables) and nighttime lights data over 5 years as a measure of success (and dependent variable). Finally, chapter five focuses on the World-Bank-Group-funded projects that contain an SEZ component and assess the factors determining success and failures of SEZs.
  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05) World Bank
    Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.