Publication: Remittances and Natural Disasters : Ex-post Response and Contribution to Ex-ante Preparedness
Loading...
Published
2009-06-01
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Macro- and micro-economic evidence suggests a positive role of remittances in preparing households against natural disasters and in coping with the loss afterwards. Analysis of cross-country macroeconomic data shows that remittances increase in the aftermath of natural disasters in countries that have a larger number of migrants abroad. Analysis of household survey data in Bangladesh shows that per capita consumption was higher in remittance-receiving households than in others after the 1998 flood. Ethiopian households that receive international remittances seem to rely more on cash reserves and less on selling household assets or livestock to cope with drought. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, international remittance-receiving households, especially those receiving remittances from high-income developed countries, tend to have housing built of concrete rather than mud and greater access to communication equipment, suggesting that they are better prepared against natural disasters.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Mohapatra, Sanket; Joseph, George; Ratha, Dilip. 2009. Remittances and Natural Disasters : Ex-post Response and Contribution to Ex-ante Preparedness. Policy Research Working Paper ; no. WPS 4972. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4353 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18)This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.Publication External Finance in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: A Tale of Differences in Vulnerabilities(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-04)Over the past two decades, many emerging markets and developing economies have been viewed as increasingly resilient to external financial shocks. This paper assesses whether such resilience is broadly shared across emerging markets and developing economies by classifying them into three tiers based on economic size, income level, institutional strength, and financial integration. The analysis shows that first-tier emerging markets and developing economies have improved their external balance sheets and reduced dependence on official support. However, second- and third-tier emerging markets and developing economies have experienced growing external vulnerabilities since the global financial crisis, marked by rising external debt liabilities and declining foreign exchange reserves. Using a range of indicators, including sovereign defaults, arrears, partial defaults, and International Monetary Fund lending, the paper identifies episodes of external financial distress and shows that distress remains widespread among second- and third-tier emerging markets and developing economies. The empirical analysis confirms that key components of the net international investment position—especially external debt and foreign exchange reserves—predict the onset of external financial distress, with institutional quality shaping the impact. Weak institutions amplify risks, while strong institutions mitigate them. These findings highlight the importance of recognizing heterogeneity across emerging markets and developing economies, strengthening institutional quality alongside external balance-sheet management, and rebuilding buffers to safeguard against renewed global financial stress.Publication Rigging the Scores: Corruption through Scoring Rule Manipulation in Public Procurement Auctions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-02)Public procurement is highly susceptible to corruption, especially in developing countries. Although open auctions are widely adopted to curb it, this paper finds that corruption remains prevalent even within this procurement format. Procurement officers can collaborate with firms to manipulate scoring rules, ensuring predetermined winners, while corrupt firms submit noncompetitive bids to meet minimum bidder requirements. Using extensive data from Chinese public procurement auctions, the paper introduces model-driven statistical tools to detect such corruption, identifying a corruption rate of 65 percent. A procurement expert audit survey confirms the tools’ reliability, with a 91 percent probability that experts recognize suspicious scoring rules when flagged. Firm-level analysis reveals that local, state-owned, and less productive firms are favored in corrupt auctions. Lastly, the paper explores policy implications. Analysis of the national anti-corruption campaign since 2012 suggests that general investigations may be insufficient to address deeply ingrained corrupt practices. Using counterfactuals based on an estimated structural model, the paper shows that implementing anonymous call-for-tender evaluations could improve social welfare by 10 percent by eliminating suspicious rules and encouraging broader participation.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Building Resilience to Disaster and Climate Change through Social Protection(Washington, DC, 2013-05)Natural disasters and climate change are among the greatest threats to development. Although natural disasters have always presented risks, climate change increases those risks and compounds them by adding a greater level of uncertainty. As a result of their increased frequency, the economic and social costs of disasters are mounting (World Bank 2010). Natural disasters and climate change can push people into chronic and transient poverty and force them to adopt negative coping strategies. Social protection programs play an important role in protecting poor and vulnerable people from these impacts and helping them reduce their exposure and vulnerability to them. This toolkit provides guidance on how to prepare social protection programs to respond to disasters and climate change. The snapshots of good practice experiences and practical tips for implementation are intended to guide decision makers in countries facing these risks in adapting their social protection programs to reduce negative impacts and accelerate recovery. The focus of this toolkit is aligned with the role and expertise of the World Bank, which has traditionally supported early and long-term recovery and helped rebuild livelihoods and infrastructure. This toolkit provides examples of good practice experiences and practical guidance for the practitioner in that direction.Publication Potential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06)This paper analyzes the potential to combine catastrophe risk modelling (CAT risk modeling) with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realized shocks and household expenditure/consumption outcomes, onto a forward-looking view of drought risk. The paper outlines the CAT risk modeling framework and the role of the vulnerability module, which describes the response of an affected exposure to a given hazard intensity. The need to explicitly account for different household characteristics that determine vulnerability within our model is considered, analogous to how a CAT risk model would differentiate damage functions for buildings by different classes of construction. Results for a regression model are presented, estimating ex-post drought impacts on consumption for heterogeneous household types (e.g. with cattle, safety-net access, illness). Next, the validity/generalizability of the derived functions are assessed, to infer applicability of the derived relationships within a CAT risk modelling framework. In particular, the analysis focuses on external validity: whether the relationships established in the dataset can be used for forecasting outside of the sample used for analysis. The model is stress-tested using statistical methods of resampling. This involves randomly splitting the data into “training” and "testing" datasets. The tests show consistency of results across the datasets. Finally, future plans are outlined with regard to developing a fuller catastrophe risk model to combine with the consumption results.Publication Enterprise Recovery Following Natural Disasters(2010-04-01)Using data from surveys of enterprises in Sri Lanka after the December 2004 tsunami, the authors undertake the first microeconomic study of the recovery of the private firms in a developing country following a major natural disaster. Disaster recovery in low-income countries is characterized by the prevalence of relief aid rather than of insurance payments; the data show this distinction has important consequences. The data indicate that aid provided directly to households correlates reasonably well with reported losses of household assets, but is uncorrelated with reported losses of business assets. Business recovery is found to be slower than commonly assumed, with disaster-affected enterprises lagging behind unaffected comparable firms more than three years after the disaster. Using data from random cash grants provided by the project, the paper shows that direct aid is more important in the recovery of enterprises operating in the retail sector than for those operating in the manufacturing and service sectors.Publication Jamaica : Toward a Strategy for Financial Weather Risk Management in Agriculture(Washington, DC, 2009-11)This report forms part of the technical assistance provided by the World Bank under the Non-lending Technical Assistance Program for the Caribbean 'market-based agriculture risk management in the Caribbean.' The program is largely financed by the European Union All Agriculture Commodities Program (AACP) Initiative and contributions from the International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and the World Bank. This document provides technical input for designing a national strategy for addressing the financial weather risks facing the agricultural sector of Jamaica. As such, it identifies the various options from current available financial risk transfer instruments for addressing crop weather risks for small farmers (livestock risks are not directly addressed in this report) and identifies the public investments needed for supporting market development of the agricultural insurance market. The report is structured in five sections to facilitate its presentation. The first two sections present a snapshot of the Jamaican economy and agricultural sector, and the current situation of agricultural insurance; third section addresses a set of key issues for designing a government strategy for agricultural financial weather risk management; fourth section contains the elements of public policy and investments to support market development for agricultural insurance, and various illustrations of how to structure financial weather risk management instruments for the sector. The report concludes with a short section containing final remarks and recommendations.Publication Fiscal Disaster Risk Assessment Options for Consideration(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06)Pakistan is vulnerable to a number of adverse natural events and has experienced a wide range of disasters over the past 40 years, including floods, earthquakes, droughts, cyclones, and tsunamis. The World Bank is supporting the Government of Pakistan (GoP) in building capacity in the area of disaster risk management (DRM) in order to build resilience from both humanitarian and fiscal shocks associated with natural disasters. The World Bank is providing technical assistance to the GoP for the development of a national disaster risk financing strategy. This non-lending technical assistance aims to: (i) assess the fiscal exposure of the GoP to natural disasters; (ii) present options for the development of a national strategy to improve financial response capacity for natural disasters; and (iii) promote property catastrophe risk insurance for both public and private dwellings. Disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) is one of the five pillars in the proactive and strategic framework for DRM promoted by the World Bank. The World Bank has been promoting a proactive and strategic framework for DRM based on five pillars: (i) risk identification; (ii) risk reduction; (iii) preparedness; (iv) financial protection; and (v) resilient recovery. Chapter one is introduction. Chapter two presents an overview of the budget processes for the financing of natural disaster losses during each of the three post-disaster phases. Chapter three provides a preliminary financial disaster risk assessment for Pakistan, focusing particularly on the fiscal impact of natural disasters. Chapter four presents an overview of the private catastrophe insurance market; and chapter five reviews the options for future financing of natural disaster recovery and reconstruction expenditures.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Governance Matters VIII : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996–2008(2009-06-01)This paper reports on the 2009 update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2008: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. These aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 33 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. They find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org.Publication Measuring Financial Inclusion : The Global Findex Database(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04)This paper provides the first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, a new set of indicators that measure how adults in 148 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The data show that 50 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a formal financial institution, though account penetration varies widely across regions, income groups and individual characteristics. In addition, 22 percent of adults report having saved at a formal financial institution in the past 12 months, and 9 percent report having taken out a new loan from a bank, credit union or microfinance institution in the past year. Although half of adults around the world remain unbanked, at least 35 percent of them report barriers to account use that might be addressed by public policy. Among the most commonly reported barriers are high cost, physical distance, and lack of proper documentation, though there are significant differences across regions and individual characteristics.Publication Governance Matters IV : Governance Indicators for 1996-2004(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-06)The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.Publication Design Thinking for Social Innovation(2010-07)Designers have traditionally focused on enchancing the look and functionality of products.Publication Government Matters III : Governance Indicators for 1996-2002(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-08)The authors present estimates of six dimensions of governance covering 199 countries and territories for four time periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. These indicators are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 25 separate data sources constructed by 18 different organizations. The authors assign these individual measures of governance to categories capturing key dimensions of governance and use an unobserved components model to construct six aggregate governance indicators in each of the four periods. They present the point estimates of the dimensions of governance as well as the margins of errors for each country for the four periods. The governance indicators reported here are an update and expansion of previous research work on indicators initiated in 1998 (Kaufmann, Kraay, and Zoido-Lobat 1999a,b and 2002). The authors also address various methodological issues, including the interpretation and use of the data given the estimated margins of errors.