Publication: Third Ethiopia Economic Update : Strengthening Export Performance through Improved Competitiveness
Loading...
Published
2014-06
ISSN
Date
2014-09-09
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Rising exports contributed to Ethiopia’s remarkable growth performance over the past decade. Buoyed by favorable external conditions, exports also helped create jobs and earn much-needed foreign exchange. The way Ethiopia created and nurtured a high-value horticulture industry and expanded its air services exports was an encouraging example of “self-discovery.”
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2014. Third Ethiopia Economic Update : Strengthening Export Performance through Improved Competitiveness. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20026 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Tightening Demand to Maintain Macroeconomic Balances : Lao PDR Economic Monitor, November 2012(World Bank, Vientiane, 2012-11)Global and regional economic development continues to face uncertainties in 2012. East Asia and the Pacific region's growth is estimated to slow down compared to 2011, but remains robust compared with other regions thanks to sustained domestic investment and consumption. Lao PDR continues to maintain robust growth this year but faces a challenge to manage domestic demand. On the supply side, the construction, services, industry and agriculture sectors are the main drivers of growth; while on the demand side, public spending and private investment including demand driven by preparations for the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) has played an important role in boosting the economy this year. In spite of robust growth, inflation has been declining, mostly on account of declining food and fuel inflation. However, home-grown and external risks associated with low reserves coverage, increased exposure to mining revenues, fast banking expansion with limited supervision capacity and a large number of newly announced large investment projects warrant close monitoring to preserve macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth. Stronger than expected revenue performance from the mining sector and external grants contributed to an improvement in the fiscal performance in FY11/12.With the contribution of mining revenue increasing, closely monitoring commodity price fluctuations is becoming increasingly important. The fiscal deficit in FY12/13 is expected to slightly widen as a result of a planned wage increase. Strong pressure on external reserves calls for tightening of aggregate demand. Credit growth remains high and is putting pressure on falling reserves. Credit growth has picked up in June 2012 driven by increased credit to the private sector and SOEs. Private sector credit growth is driven by buoyant performance in construction, manufacturing and service sectors. The Bank of Lao PDR's disbursements to local infrastructure projects have moderated compared to their peak in 2009, but are ongoing as a result of previous commitments.Publication Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2013 : High-Performing Education(World Bank, Bangkok, 2013-12)Malaysia's economy regained momentum but yearly growth is set to decelerate in 2013. Export recovery into 2014 is expected to offset slower domestic demand and lead to a pick-up in growth. Fiscal consolidation is picking up pace with subsidy cuts, sin tax increases, and less generous public service bonuses. The full implementation of the minimum wage in January 2014 will provide an additional boost to households, as will increased cash transfers that are part of the government's strategy for subsidy rationalization and modernizing social protection. Malaysia performs very well with respect to access to education. Enrolments at primary and lower secondary levels are nearly universal and recent gains in pre-primary education have been note-worthy. Among East Asian countries that participated in the 2012 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), Malaysian students only outperform their Indonesian peers, and lag even lower-income countries (including, by a wide margin, Vietnam). Expenditure on basic education is more than double that of other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and the decline in learning outcomes occurred while inputs to education were expanding and the size of the student population was falling. The key constraints to improving the quality of basic education thus relate not to the quantity of inputs but institutions. 46 percent of principals report a lack of qualified teaching staff as a constraint, and Ministry of Education (MOE) admits that in recent years some candidates enrolling in teacher training institutions did not meet minimum requirements of academic achievement at the secondary level. Lifting these constraints entails refining some of the measures recommended in the Education Blueprint for high-performing education system: (1) moving towards school-based decision-making; (2) improving parental involvement and enhancing accountability; and (3) improving incentives and recruitment for teachers. The government may consider piloting fixed contract recruitments with tenure contingent on performance, and tying retraining and up-skilling efforts with certification.Publication Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2014 : Boosting Trade Competitiveness(Bangkok, 2014-06)This economic update provides an overview for 2013 and early 2014 in Malaysia and an analysis of structural trends in trade competitiveness. The economy overcame a weak start in 2013 to experience GDP growth through 2014. The improved performance was driven mainly by a recovery in exports, including of the long-ailing electrical and electronics sector. The outlook remains favorable and GDP is expected to continue growing through 2015. Growth will be sustained by positive external conditions, with foreign demand outweighing headwinds in domestic demand. Investment and imports of capital goods will remain robust as large projects move forward. Medium-term fiscal consolidation remains on track and the debt-to-GDP ratio has stabilized, but additional spending measures are needed for the Government to meet its 2014 deficit target. The central bank has signaled that it may have to tighten policy to avoid the build-up of financial imbalances. Labor markets are healthy, and Malaysia has enjoyed higher employment levels, real wage gains, and higher labor incomes. External risks to the economic outlook have receded, but the high share of Malaysia's foreign debt means it is sensitive to international volatility. Boosting exports to fully leverage the improved external environment will be critical for sustained growth. The report's analysis of Malaysia's trade competitiveness focuses on its ability to grow exports and the domestic value-added. Malaysia's exports had been faltering since before the Global Financial Crisis. The core electrical and electronics sector declined in the 2000s, and Malaysia's domestic value-added is relatively low due to limited domestic linkages. Exports of services have also lagged and remain an area of significant potential. Restrictive Government policies play a role in hindering export growth, although the Government has recently embarked on a liberalization of service sectors. Improving domestic value-added tasks will require addressing skill gaps. Finally, Malaysia's upcoming chairmanship in ASEAN offers concrete avenues to boost trade competitiveness.Publication Taking Stock, June 2010(World Bank, Hanoi, 2010-06)Vietnam has navigated the global crisis better than many other countries. GDP grew by 5.3 percent in 2009, accelerating to 6.9 percent in the last quarter of the year. At 5.8 percent, the figure for the first quarter of 2010 was less impressive, but claims that growth has slowed down are most probably unwarranted. Exports declined in 2009, for the first time since the beginning of economic reforms, but their decline was smaller than in other countries of the region. By now export growth is converging back to the 30 percent annual growth rate observed before the crisis. Inflation, which had reached 19.9 percent in 2008, was down to 6.5 percent in 2009. While there were some worrying signs of inflation acceleration in late 2009 and early 2010, by now the monthly increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is again moderate. And as in previous years, there were no banking crises despite the continuation of macroeconomic turbulence. More generally, lack of clarity by markets forces the government to overshoot in its policy reactions. Because markets are not sure to understand what the government is up to, they need to see very strong action in order to be convinced that the right course of action has been taken. As a result, Vietnam has had to go through dramatic shifts in the policy stance as circumstances changed. The stabilization policies of 2008 effectively 'killed' the real estate bubble and brought inflation rates to zero in just a few months, but such speed took a toll on economic activity. The stimulus policies of 2009 were equally strong and determined, but they ended up putting too much pressure on international reserves. With more information disclosure and better communication, policy shifts could perhaps be less extreme. Combined with stronger macroeconomic management, it should be possible for Vietnam to gradually free itself from the 'stop-and-go' cycle that has characterized macroeconomic policies over the last three years.Publication Resilience Amidst a Challenging Environment : Cambodia Economic Update, September 2013(Washington, DC, 2013-09)According to the June 2013 global economic prospects, the global economic environment remains fragile, although the balance of risks is now less skewed to the downside than it has been in recent years. The US has been signaling an exit from quantitative easing. Developing country currencies have come under pressure, and their interest rates have been on the rise, contributing to inflation and weaker growth. This may complicate in particular those economies that have seen big increases in credit during the period when interest rates were low, or where current account and government deficits are high. Developing economies remain the main driver of global growth, but their output has slowed compared with the pre-crisis period. The Cambodian economy remains robust amidst the challenging global economic environment, and prospects for meeting the growth projection of 7 percent in 2013 appear favorable. In sum, the key messages include: (a) sustain robust growth by promoting diversification and enhancing competitiveness; (b) maintain banking and financial stability with effective supervision; and (c) improve fiscal management by increasing revenue and more efficient spending.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12)Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.Publication Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04)Grounded in new evidence from satellite data, “Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future” presents the first global assessment of freshwater reserves over the past two decades. The findings expose an alarming trend of “continental drying,” a persistent long-term decline in freshwater availability across vast landmasses. Not only are droughts and deluges becoming more unpredictable, but the total amount of freshwater available for use has also significantly declined. Continental drying, driven by global warming, worsening droughts, and unsustainable water and land use, is a silent but accelerating crisis—largely unknown to the public—that reshapes the global water narrative. Continental drying raises profound risks. This report reveals new empirical evidence showing how freshwater depletion leads to major job losses, reduced incomes, wildfires, and biodiversity threats. In the long term, the combined effects of drying and warming could push societies toward a tipping point where damage accelerates rapidly and adaptation becomes increasingly difficult. Against the backdrop of continental drying, global water consumption rose by 25 percent between 2000 and 2019, with about a third of this increase occurring in regions already experiencing drying. Compounding the pressure, a substantial share of water use in drying regions remains inefficient. Continental Drying identifies hot spots where rising demand and declining supply converge and explores where and how water savings can be realized. This report recommends a three-pronged approach to address the crisis: managing demand, augmenting water supply, and improving water allocation. Five cross-cutting levers—strengthening institutions, reforming water tariffs and repurposing subsidies, adopting water accounting, leveraging data and technological innovations, and valuing water in trade—are essential for effective implementation and to attract private investment to finance the approach. Beyond water, addressing trade barriers, investing in education and skills development, and improving access to markets and financial services are critical for strengthening job and livelihood resilience amid a continental drying crisis.Publication Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17)Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.