Publication: International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa
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Embargoed until 2026-03-12
Embargoed until 2026-03-12
Published
2025-08-05
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0258-6770 (print)
1564-698X (online)
1564-698X (online)
Date
2025-08-05
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Abstract
In this paper, the global commodity prices' pass-through to consumer prices is estimated in Africa. The estimation sample includes monthly data for 48 countries over the period 2002m02–2021m04. Sixteen commodity prices are considered separately, rather than aggregate indices that use weights unrepresentative of consumption in Africa. Using local projections in a panel data set, the maximum estimated pass-through is 23 percent, and the long-run pass-through is about 20 percent, higher than usually found in the literature. Country-specific regressions are also considered: in the latter, the estimated pass-through is lower for countries with a higher GDP per capita, a lower share of food and energy in the consumption basket, a better quality of transport infrastructure, and a higher openness to trade. Finally, commodity-specific pass-throughs are correlated with the share of corresponding goods in the consumer basket and with the import dependency ratio for this commodity.
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“Lemaire, Thibault; Vertier, Paul. 2025. International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa. World Bank Economic Review. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43543 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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