Journal Articles
841 items available
Permanent URI for this collection
World Bank Journal Articles
Items in this collection
1 - 10 of 841
-
Publication
Impacts of Temporary Migration on Development in Origin Countries
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-04-17)Temporary migration is widespread globally. While the literature has traditionally focused on the impacts of permanent migration on destination countries, evidence on the effects of temporary migration on origin countries has grown over the past decade. This paper highlights that the economic development impacts, especially on low- and middle-income origin countries, are complex, dynamic, context-specific, and multichanneled. The paper identifies five main pathways: (a) labor supply; (b) human capital; (c) financial capital and entrepreneurship; (d) aggregate welfare and poverty; and (e) institutions and social norms. Several factors shape these pathways and their eventual impacts. These include initial economic conditions at home, the scale and double selectivity of emigration and return migration, whether migration was planned to be temporary ex ante, and employment and human capital accumulation opportunities experienced by migrants while they are overseas. Meaningful policy interventions to increase the development impacts of temporary migration require proper analysis, which, in turn, depends on high-quality data on workers’ employment trajectories, as well as their decision processes on the timing of their migration and return. These are currently the biggest research challenges to overcome to study the development impacts of temporary migration. -
Publication
What Makes Public Sector Data Valuable for Development?
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-04-14)Data produced by the public sector can have transformational impacts on development outcomes through better targeting of resources, improved service delivery, cost savings, increased accountability, and more. Around the world, the amount of data produced by the public sector is increasing rapidly, but we argue the full potential of data to improve development outcomes has not been realized yet. We outline 12 features needed for data to generate greater value for development and present case studies substantiating these features. We argue that a key reason why the transformational value of data has not yet been realized is that suboptimal data—data not satisfying these 12 features—are being supplied. The features are that the data should be of adequate spatial and temporal coverage (complete, frequent, and timely), should be of high quality (accurate, comparable, and granular), should be easy to use (accessible, understandable, and interoperable), and should be safe to use (impartial, confidential, and appropriate). -
Publication
Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Carbon Pricing
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-03-29)A growing literature suggests that carbon emissions are most efficiently reduced by carbon pricing. The evidence base on the effectiveness of market-based mechanisms, however, faces three key limitations: studies often (a) predict, rather than evaluate effects, (b) show large difference in findings, and (c) cannot always infer causal relations. Quasi-experimental studies can address these challenges by using variation in policies over time, space, or entities. This paper systematically reviews this new literature, outlines the benefits and caveats of quasi-experimental methodologies, and verifies the reliability and value of quasi-experimental estimates. The overall evidence base documents a causal effect between carbon pricing and emission reductions, with ambiguous effects on economic outcomes, and there are important gaps and inconsistencies. This review underscores that estimates should be interpreted with care because of: (a) inappropriate choice of method, (b) incorrect implementation of empirical analysis (e.g., violate identifying assumptions), and (c) data limitations. More cross-learning across studies and use of novel empirical strategies is needed to improve the empirical evidence base going forward. -
Publication
The Promise and Limitations of Information Technology for Tax Mobilization
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-10-20)Tax revenue in many low- and middle-income countries is inadequate for funding investments in public goods and human capital. With high levels of informality and limited state capacity, many tax authorities have difficulty determining the true tax base and collecting taxes efficiently and equitably. Tax authorities are increasingly adopting new technologies to improve administrative processes, reduce taxpayer compliance costs, and enhance their overall effectiveness. This paper reviews the recent literature on the use of technology for tax administration. It highlights the potential of technology to improve tax collection by helping to identify the tax base, monitor compliance, and facilitate compliance. It also identifies possible limitations to the use of technology arising from inadequate infrastructure and connectivity, lack of adoption or resistance by taxpayers and tax collectors, lack of institutional mainstreaming, and an unsupportive regulatory environment. -
Publication
Improving the Well-Being of Adolescent Girls in Developing Countries
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-10-13)This paper conducts a large, narrative review of interventions that might plausibly (a) increase educational attainment, (b) delay childbearing, and/or (c) delay marriage for adolescent girls in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using 108 interventions from 78 studies, predominantly in LMICs, the paper summarizes the performance of 15 categories of interventions in improving these outcomes. Transfer programs emerge as broadly effective in increasing educational attainment but their effects on delaying fertility and marriage remain mixed and dependent on context. Construction of schools in underserved areas and the provision of information on returns to schooling and academic performance also increase schooling. No category of interventions is found to be categorically effective in delaying pregnancies and reducing child marriages among adolescent girls. While targeted provision of sexual and reproductive health services, including vouchers and subsidies for family planning, and increasing job opportunities for women seem promising, more research is needed to evaluate the longer-term effects of such interventions. We propose that future studies should aim to measure short-term outcomes that can form good surrogates for long-term welfare gains and should collect detailed cost information. -
Publication
Income and Wealth Inequality in Hong Kong, 1981–2020: The Rise of Pluto-Communism?
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-10-08)The objective of this paper is to better understand the evolution and institutional roots of Hong Kong's growing economic inequality and political cleavages. By combining multiple sources of data (household surveys, fiscal data, wealth rankings, national accounts) and methodological innovations, two main findings are obtained. First, he evidence suggests a very large rise in income and wealth inequality in Hong Kong over the last four decades. Second, based on the latest opinion poll data, business elites, who carry disproportionate weight in Hong Kong's Legislative Council, are found to be more likely to vote for the pro-establishment camp (presumably to ensure that policies are passed that protect their political and economic interests). This paper argues that the unique alliance of government and business elites in a partially democratic political system is the plausible institutional root of Hong Kong's rising inequality and political cleavages. -
Publication
Services, Jobs, and Economic Development in Africa
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-08-09)This article presents data and analyzes the structure of employment in 13 African economies at the administrative unit level, with a focus on the role of services. We provide two novel pieces of evidence. First, we present a descriptive snapshot of changes in the composition of employment over time and across geographies. This reveals evidence of structural transformation toward services and service-related occupations at subnational level and provides a fine-grained overview of who works in services and where and how this has changed over time. Second, we provide correlations between services and economic development, using per capita nightlight luminosity as a proxy. We document (1) a strong positive association between high skills services and economic development; (2) substantial heterogeneity across industries within services; and (3) a mediating role of market conditions and technology in the relation between services and economic development. Overall, our work highlights an important role of services activities for employment, skills, and economic development in Africa. -
Publication
Childcare and Mothers’ Labor Market Outcomes in Lower- and Middle-Income Countries
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-07-12)Improving women's labor force participation and the quality of their employment can boost economic growth and support poverty and inequality reduction; thus, it is highly pertinent for the development agenda. However, existing systematic reviews on female labor market outcomes and childcare, which can arguably improve these outcomes, are focused on developed countries. We review 22 studies which plausibly identify the causal impact of institutional childcare on maternal labor market outcomes in lower-and-middle income countries. All but one study finds positive impacts on the extensive or intensive margin of maternal labor market outcomes, which aligns with findings from developed countries. We further analyze aspects of childcare design, including hours, ages of children, coordination with other childcare services that may increase the impacts on maternal labor market outcomes. We conclude with a discussion of directions for future research. -
Publication
A Puzzle with Missing Pieces: Explaining the Effectiveness of World Bank Development Projects
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-07-12)The identification of key determinants of aid effectiveness is a long-standing question in the development community. This paper reviews the literature on aid effectiveness at the project level and then extends the inquiry in a variety of dimensions with new data on World Bank investment project financing. It confirms that the country institutional setting and quality of project supervision are associated with project success, as identified previously. However, many aspects of the development project cycle, especially project design, have been difficult to measure and therefore under-investigated. The paper finds that project design, as proxied by the estimated value added of design staff, the presence of prior analytic work, and other specially collected measures, is a significant predictor of ultimate project success. These factors generally grow in predictive importance as the income level of the country rises. The results also indicate that a key determinant of the staff's contribution is their experience with previous World Bank projects, but not other characteristics such as age, education, or country location. Key inputs to the project production process associated with subsequent performance are not captured in routine data systems, although it is feasible to do so. Further, the conceptualization and measurement of the success of project-based aid should be revisited by evaluative bodies to reflect a project's theorized contribution to development outcomes. -
Publication
Do Government Incentives to Promote R&D Increase Private R&D Investment?
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-05-18)R&D incentives are a popular policy option to encourage private R&D worldwide. This paper provides an updated survey of R&D incentives’ effect on private R&D investment, including evaluations from developing countries. It assesses the pattern of R&D incentives, and reviews recent literature on the efficacy of these incentives. It reveals that R&D incentives generally increase private R&D, but to a varying extent depending on incentive types, countries’ income levels, industry and firm characteristics, and the design and implementation of the incentives. Overall, variability of the effect on private R&D is greater for direct incentives than indirect incentives. The effect of indirect incentives is found to be smaller in developing countries than developed countries, contrary to the predictions of growth theory. This paper investigates the potential reasons for these findings and summarizes policy implications for governments considering upgrading or adopting R&D incentives.