Publication:
Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration

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dc.contributor.authorHolzmann, Robert
dc.date.accessioned2014-10-07T15:37:47Z
dc.date.available2014-10-07T15:37:47Z
dc.date.issued2005-12
dc.description.abstractThe paper investigates the demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected population aging and low or negative growth of the population and labor force in the North. Without further immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China, and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor forth in the North include moving the total fertility rate back to replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of the existing population through a variety of measures, and filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration. The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios may partially or even fully compensate for the projected labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate the required change.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/12/20190000/demographic-alternatives-aging-industrial-countries-increased-total-fertility-rate-labor-force-participation-or-immigration
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/20385
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/20385
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesSocial protection and labor discussion paper;no. 0540
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGE GROUP
dc.subjectAGE GROUPS
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subjectBABIES
dc.subjectBENEFIT LEVEL
dc.subjectBENEFIT LEVELS
dc.subjectBENEFITS OF MIGRATION
dc.subjectBIRTH RATES
dc.subjectBRAIN DRAIN
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectCHANGE IN POPULATION
dc.subjectCHANGE IN POPULATION SIZE
dc.subjectCHILD REARING
dc.subjectCHILD-BEARING
dc.subjectCHILDREN PER FAMILY
dc.subjectCHILDREN PER WOMAN
dc.subjectCITIZENS
dc.subjectCONTRIBUTION PAYMENTS
dc.subjectCONTRIBUTION RATE
dc.subjectCONTRIBUTION SYSTEM
dc.subjectCOUNTRY OF ORIGIN
dc.subjectCURRENT LABOR FORCE
dc.subjectDEFINED BENEFITS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC POLICY
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
dc.subjectDEPENDENCY RATIO
dc.subjectDEPENDENCY RATIOS
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDIFFERENTIATED IMPACT
dc.subjectDISABILITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectEDUCATED WOMEN
dc.subjectEFFECT ON POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectELDERLY
dc.subjectELDERLY POPULATION
dc.subjectEMPLOYEE
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT POLICIES
dc.subjectENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT
dc.subjectEXISTING POPULATION
dc.subjectFACTOR MARKETS
dc.subjectFACTORS OF PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFAMILY MEMBERS
dc.subjectFEMALE LABOR
dc.subjectFEMALE LABOR FORCE
dc.subjectFERTILITY
dc.subjectFERTILITY RATE
dc.subjectFERTILITY RATES
dc.subjectFIRST BIRTH
dc.subjectFIRST CHILD
dc.subjectGENDER GAP
dc.subjectGENDER GAPS
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectGLOBAL COMMISSION
dc.subjectGLOBAL COMMISSION ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHEALTH CARE
dc.subjectHEALTH INSURANCE
dc.subjectHOST COUNTRIES
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectIMMIGRANTS
dc.subjectIMMIGRATION
dc.subjectIMMIGRATION POLICY
dc.subjectIMPACT OF MIGRATION
dc.subjectIMPACT OF POPULATION
dc.subjectIMPACT ON FERTILITY
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME SUPPORT
dc.subjectINCREASE IN LABOR
dc.subjectINCREASED FERTILITY RATES
dc.subjectINFORMAL SECTOR
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL POLICY
dc.subjectISSUES OF POPULATION
dc.subjectJOB CREATION
dc.subjectJOB LOSSES
dc.subjectJOBS
dc.subjectKNOWLEDGE ECONOMY
dc.subjectLABOR DEMAND
dc.subjectLABOR ECONOMICS
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE GROWTH
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET POLICIES
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET PROBLEMS
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectLABOR MIGRANTS
dc.subjectLABOR MIGRATION
dc.subjectLABOUR
dc.subjectLABOUR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOUR MARKETS
dc.subjectLARGE-SCALE IMMIGRATION
dc.subjectLIFE EXPECTANCY
dc.subjectLIFE-LONG LEARNING
dc.subjectLIFELONG LEARNING
dc.subjectLONG-RUN EFFECTS
dc.subjectLONGER LIFE
dc.subjectLOW FERTILITY
dc.subjectLOWER FERTILITY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
dc.subjectMIGRANT
dc.subjectMIGRANT WORKERS
dc.subjectMIGRANT-SENDING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMIGRATION DATA
dc.subjectMIGRATION FLOWS
dc.subjectMIGRATION POLICY
dc.subjectMORAL HAZARD
dc.subjectMORTALITY
dc.subjectMORTALITY RATE
dc.subjectNATIONAL INTEREST
dc.subjectNATIONAL SECURITY
dc.subjectNATIONALS
dc.subjectNATIVE WORKERS
dc.subjectNOTIONAL ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectNUMBER OF BIRTHS
dc.subjectNUMBER OF CHILDREN
dc.subjectNUMBER OF CHILDREN PER WOMAN
dc.subjectNUMBER OF MIGRANTS
dc.subjectNUMBER OF PERSONS
dc.subjectNUMBER OF WOMEN
dc.subjectNUMBER OF WOMEN OF CHILD-BEARING AGE
dc.subjectOLD-AGE
dc.subjectOPPORTUNITY COSTS
dc.subjectPARENTAL LEAVE
dc.subjectPARTICIPATION OF WOMEN
dc.subjectPAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEM
dc.subjectPAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEMS
dc.subjectPAY-AS-YOU-GO SYSTEM
dc.subjectPENSION
dc.subjectPENSION BENEFIT
dc.subjectPENSION BENEFITS
dc.subjectPENSION INCOME
dc.subjectPENSION PAYMENTS
dc.subjectPENSION REFORM
dc.subjectPENSION SCHEME
dc.subjectPENSION SCHEMES
dc.subjectPENSION SYSTEM
dc.subjectPENSION SYSTEMS
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPERSONAL HEALTH
dc.subjectPOLICY AFFECT
dc.subjectPOLICY DECISIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectPOPULATION DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPOPULATION EFFECT
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPOPULATION POLICY
dc.subjectPOPULATION RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOPULATION SHIFTS
dc.subjectPOPULATION STRUCTURE
dc.subjectPRESENT VALUE
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPROPERTY RIGHTS
dc.subjectPUBLIC PENSION
dc.subjectPUBLIC PENSIONS
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER PARITY
dc.subjectRATE OF RETURN
dc.subjectREAL WAGES
dc.subjectREFUGEES
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectREPLACEMENT LEVEL
dc.subjectREPLACEMENT RATE
dc.subjectRETIREES
dc.subjectRETIREMENT
dc.subjectRETIREMENT AGE
dc.subjectRETIREMENT INCOME
dc.subjectRETIREMENT PERIOD
dc.subjectRETURN MIGRATION
dc.subjectSKILL LEVEL
dc.subjectSMALL COUNTRIES
dc.subjectSOCIAL AFFAIRS
dc.subjectSOCIAL BENEFITS
dc.subjectSOCIAL POLICY
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROGRAMS
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECURITY
dc.subjectSTATE UNIVERSITY
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTERRORIST
dc.subjectTOTAL LABOR FORCE
dc.subjectTRADE UNIONS
dc.subjectTRANSFER OF KNOWLEDGE
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION
dc.subjectWORK FORCE
dc.subjectWORKER
dc.subjectWORKING POPULATION
dc.subjectWORLD POPULATION
dc.subjectYOUNG AGE
dc.subjectYOUNG AGES
dc.subjectYOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.titleDemographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigrationen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaJobs
okr.date.disclosure2014-09-09
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-05T12:47:51.375834Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/12/20190000/demographic-alternatives-aging-industrial-countries-increased-total-fertility-rate-labor-force-participation-or-immigration
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeSocial Protection and Labor
okr.globalpracticeHealth, Nutrition, and Population
okr.guid240001468323975614
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000470435_20140909150048
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum20190000
okr.identifier.report90490
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/09/09/000470435_20140909150048/Rendered/PDF/904900NWP0P13205319B00PUBLIC0000540.pdfen
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Population Policies
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Policies
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.topicPensions and Retirement Systems
okr.unitSocial Protect & Labor - GP (GSPDR)
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb036b47b-8d48-5ef8-81c6-543fe1f7c99d
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb036b47b-8d48-5ef8-81c6-543fe1f7c99d
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