Publication: Stock Market Responses to Bank Restructuring Policies during the East Asian Crisis
Loading...
Published
2001-03
ISSN
Date
2014-08-26
Editor(s)
Abstract
The East Asian crisis began in Thailand in mid-1997 when an ailing financial sector, a slowdown in exports, and large increases in central bank credit to weak financial institutions, triggered a run on the baht. Then the crisis spread to other countries in the region, as common vulnerabilities, and revaluations of risk in emerging markets, triggered large capital flows. To better understand the impact of different policy responses to financial crises, the authors investigate how stock markets in East Asian countries reacted to the initial policy announcements of bank, and financial restructuring - especially how banking, and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, fared in response to announcements of different restructuring measures. They find that prices of bank stocks, responded positively to announcements about government guarantees of bank liabilities. Non-financial companies gained in value when guarantees were announced, but their stock prices were negatively affected by announcements favoring public re-capitalization schemes, and generous liquidity support programs. Possibly the market was concerned that public funds per se, would not restore the health of the financial sector - that they would not be sufficient, or would not be used to restructure bank balance sheets, and operations, and allow banks to engage in meaningful corporate restructuring. The announcements of increased public support, have been viewed as a signal that the financial institutions were in a financially weaker position than previously thought.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Klingebiel, Daniela; Kroszner, Randy; Laeven, Luc; van Oijen, Pieter. 2001. Stock Market Responses to Bank Restructuring Policies during the East Asian Crisis. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2571. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19689 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Gender Gaps in the Performance of Small Firms: Evidence from Urban Peru(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23)This paper estimates the gender gap in the performance of firms in Peru using representative data on both formal and informal firms. On average, informal female-led firms have lower sales, labor productivity, and profits compared to their male-led counterparts, with differences more pronounced when controlling for observable determinants of firm performance. However, gender gaps are only significant at the bottom of the performance distribution of informal firms, and these gaps disappear at the top of the distribution of informal firms and for formal firms. Possible explanations for the performance gaps at the bottom of the distribution include the higher likelihood of small, female-led firms being home-based, which is linked to lower profits, and their concentration in less profitable sectors. The paper provides suggestive evidence that household responsibilities play a key role in explaining the gender gap in firm performance among informal firms. Therefore, policies that promote access to care services or foster a more equal distribution of household activities may reduce gender productivity gaps and allow for a more efficient allocation of resources.Publication The Exposure of Workers to Artificial Intelligence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-05)Research on the labor market implications of artificial intelligence has focused principally on high-income countries. This paper analyzes this issue using microdata from a large set of low- and middle-income countries, applying a measure of potential artificial intelligence occupational exposure to a harmonized set of labor force surveys for 25 countries, covering a population of 3.5 billion people. The approach advances work by using harmonized microdata at the level of individual workers, which allows for a multivariate analysis of factors associated with exposure. Additionally, unlike earlier papers, the paper uses highly detailed (4 digit) occupation codes, which provide a more reliable mapping of artificial intelligence exposure to occupation. Results within countries, show that artificial intelligence exposure is higher for women, urban workers, and those with higher education. Exposure decreases by country income level, with high exposure for just 12 percent of workers in low-income countries and 15 percent of workers in lower-middle-income countries. Furthermore, lack of access to electricity limits effective exposure in low-income countries. These results suggest that for developing countries, and in particular low-income countries, the labor market impacts of artificial intelligence will be more limited than in high-income countries. While greater exposure to artificial intelligence indicates larger potential for future changes in certain occupations, it does not equate to job loss, as it could result in augmentation of worker productivity, automation of some tasks, or both.Publication Geopolitical Risks and Trade(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23)This paper studies the impact of geopolitical risks on international trade, using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and an empirical gravity model. The impact of spikes in geopolitical risk on trade is negative, strong, and heterogeneous across sectors. The findings show that increases in geopolitical risk reduce trade by about 30 to 40 percent. These effects are equivalent to an increase of global tariffs of up to 14 percent. Services trade is most vulnerable to geopolitical risks, followed by agriculture, and the impact on manufacturing trade is moderate. These negative effects are partially mitigated by cultural and geographic proximity, as well as by the presence of trade agreements.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication How to Accelerate Corporate and Financial Sector Restructuring in East Asia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 1999-11)Resolving systemic banking and corporate distress is not easy. The large scale of the East Asian financial crisis has made the task even more daunting in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. Two years into the process, bank and corporate restructuring is still a work in progress. Governments should act to accelerate it. Besides adopting common policy prescriptions - improving financial regulation, corporate governance, and bankruptcy procedures and shoring up banks' capital positions - governments could take three additional steps: Set up competitive, privately managed specialized funds, to hold nonperforming loans and depoliticize restructuring. Allow auctions as an alternative to negotiations, to speed debt restructuring. And allow employee ownership participation schemes, to reduce workers' resistance to changes in ownership.Publication Decentralized Creditor-Led Corporate Restructuring : Cross-Country Experience(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2002-10)Countries that have experienced banking crises have adopted one of two distinct approaches toward the resolution of non-performing assets-a centralized or a decentralized solution. A centralized approach entails setting up a government agency-an asset management company-with the full responsibility for acquiring, restructuring, and selling of the assets. A decentralized approach relies on banks and other creditors to manage and resolve non-performing assets. The authors study banking crises where governments adopted a decentralized, creditor-led workout strategy following systemic crises. They use a case study approach and analyze seven banking crises in which governments mainly relied on banks to resolve non-performing assets. The study suggests that out of the seven cases, only Chile, Norway, and Poland successfully restructured their corporate sectors with companies attaining viable financial structures. The analysis underscores that as in the case of a centralized strategy the prerequisites for a successful decentralized restructuring strategy are manifold. The successful countries significantly improved the banking system's capital position, enabling banks to write down loan losses; banks as well as corporations had adequate incentives to engage in corporate restructuring; and ownership links between banks and corporations were limited or severed during crises.Publication Resolving Systemic Financial Crisis: Policies and Institutions(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-08)The authors analyze the role of institutions in resolving systemic banking crises for a broad sample of countries. Banking crises are fiscally costly, especially when policies like substantial liquidity support, explicit government guarantees on financial institutions liabilities, and forbearance from prudential regulations are used. Higher fiscal outlays do not, however, accelerate the recovery from a crisis. Better institutions less corruption, improved law and order, legal system, and bureaucracy do. The authors find these results to be relatively robust to estimation techniques, including controlling for the effects of a poor institutional environment on the likelihood of financial crisis and the size of fiscal costs. Their results suggest that countries should use strict policies to resolve a crisis and use the crisis as an opportunity to implement medium-term structural reforms, which will also help avoid future systemic crises.Publication A Practical Guide to Managing Systemic Financial Crises : A Review of Approaches Taken in Indonesia, The Republic of Korea, and Thailand(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2002-05)The author examines experiences in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand in confronting systemic financial crises during the 1990s. He draws on the knowledge and experience of World Bank staff who managed the Bank's financial and technical assistance to those countries. In reviewing the principal actions taken by the governments to resolve the crises, the author describes key challenges that governments face in tackling crises, defines basic guidelines and principles for responding to those challenges, and proposes steps to improve the ability of governments to deal with crises when they do occur, as well as to mitigate the risk of crises in the first place. The author addresses matters such as the provision of liquidity, institutional arrangements for crisis resolution, use of public funds, diagnosis of problems, resolution, recapitalization, restructuring of banks, privatization of banks, restructuring of troubled debt, and use of asset management companies. He goes on to develop the conceptual underpinnings for two fundamental improvements in crisis management practices, one to develop an explicit, comprehensive crisis resolution strategy, and the second to link the provision of support to banks explicitly to the actual outcomes of troubled debt restructuring. A common theme in both is to maximize the impact of public funds used in crisis resolution. Finally the author identifies steps that governments can take to mitigate the risk of crisis and be better prepared to deal with shocks should they occur, including the use of contingency planning in the context of liquidity management and intervention in weak banks.Publication Managing the Real and Fiscal Effects of Banking Crises(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2002-01)The study provides two recent analyses, spurred by the recent East Asian crisis, of government responses to financial distress, and, also presents a comprehensive database on systemic, and borderline banking crises. In the first chapter, the authors review the tradeoffs involved in public policies for systemic, financial, and corporate sector restructuring. They find that consistent policies are crucial for success, though such consistency is often missing. This consistency covers many dimensions, and entails among other things, ensuring that there are sufficient resources for absorbing losses, and, that private agents face appropriate incentives for restructuring. The authors also find that sustainable restructuring, requires deep structural reforms, facing upfront, political economy factors. In the second chapter, the authors use cross-country evidence to determine whether specific crisis containment, and resolution policies, systematically influence the fiscal costs of resolving a crisis. They find that accommodating policies - such as blanket deposit guarantees, debtor bailouts, and regulatory forbearance, etc. - significantly increase fiscal costs. The third chapter, is a comprehensive database on systemic banking crises that have occurred since the late 1970s. The database also includes information on borderline (non-systemic) banking crises during the same period.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Governance Matters VIII : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996–2008(2009-06-01)This paper reports on the 2009 update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2008: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. These aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 33 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. They find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org.Publication Government Matters III : Governance Indicators for 1996-2002(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-08)The authors present estimates of six dimensions of governance covering 199 countries and territories for four time periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. These indicators are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 25 separate data sources constructed by 18 different organizations. The authors assign these individual measures of governance to categories capturing key dimensions of governance and use an unobserved components model to construct six aggregate governance indicators in each of the four periods. They present the point estimates of the dimensions of governance as well as the margins of errors for each country for the four periods. The governance indicators reported here are an update and expansion of previous research work on indicators initiated in 1998 (Kaufmann, Kraay, and Zoido-Lobat 1999a,b and 2002). The authors also address various methodological issues, including the interpretation and use of the data given the estimated margins of errors.Publication Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2003)Most wars are now civil wars. Even though international wars attract enormous global attention, they have become infrequent and brief. Civil wars usually attract less attention, but they have become increasingly common and typically go on for years. This report argues that civil war is now an important issue for development. War retards development, but conversely, development retards war. This double causation gives rise to virtuous and vicious circles. Where development succeeds, countries become progressively safer from violent conflict, making subsequent development easier. Where development fails, countries are at high risk of becoming caught in a conflict trap in which war wrecks the economy and increases the risk of further war. The global incidence of civil war is high because the international community has done little to avert it. Inertia is rooted in two beliefs: that we can safely 'let them fight it out among themselves' and that 'nothing can be done' because civil war is driven by ancestral ethnic and religious hatreds. The purpose of this report is to challenge these beliefs.Publication Governance Matters IV : Governance Indicators for 1996-2004(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-06)The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.Publication Design Thinking for Social Innovation(2010-07)Designers have traditionally focused on enchancing the look and functionality of products.