Publication:
Yemen Economic Monitor, Spring 2024: Navigating Increased Hardship and Growing Fragmentation

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.38 MB)
183 downloads
English Text (118.86 KB)
33 downloads
Other Files
Arabic PDF (1.55 MB)
193 downloads
Published
2024-08-01
ISSN
Date
2024-08-01
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Yemen Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Yemen. The Monitor places these developments, policies, and findings in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications for Yemen’s outlook. Its coverage ranges from the macro economy to financial markets to human welfare and development indicators. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, development partners, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Yemen.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2024. Yemen Economic Monitor, Spring 2024: Navigating Increased Hardship and Growing Fragmentation. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41985 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Egypt : Economic Monitoring Note, Spring 2013
    (Washington, DC, 2013-03) World Bank
    The political situation in Egypt remains highly volatile and uncertain. The political environment is highly fragmented with increasing polarization between the Muslim brotherhood and other less organized factions that include secular and liberal parties as well as supporters of the former regime. At the same time, confrontations between the authorities and the judiciary continue to resurface. Following the controversial assumption of temporary exceptional powers, the president pushed forward a referendum on the new constitution in December which was approved by a small majority but with a low voter turnout. New Parliamentary elections were called in late February to begin in late April, but the election law was subsequently challenged in the courts. This will likely delay elections until August. Meanwhile, the key opposition parties have declared that they will boycott the elections.
  • Publication
    Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2013
    (Washington, DC, 2013-04) World Bank
    The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central government s primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. While Lebanon is to be commended for its openness to Syrian refugees, the conflict is severely and negatively impacting the Lebanese economy. The largest impact arises through the insecurity and uncertainty spillovers and touches at the heart of Lebanon s societal fabric.
  • Publication
    Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015
    (Washington, DC, 2015-04-20) World Bank
    The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro, Headline inflation plummeted from 2.7 percent in 2013 to 1.9 percent in 2014 and is expected to remain tempered over the medium term. Lebanon s economy continues to be exposed to external shocks. The border with Syria is increasingly menacing as coordinated attacks by ISIS and Al Nusra are being launched more frequently from their bases in Syria. Inefficiencies in power generation impose sizable macroeconomic costs on Lebanon. The Lebanese electricity sector has been underperforming for decades with considerable socio-economic costs. The macroeconomic impact has been massive.
  • Publication
    Egypt Economic Monitor, Spring 2015
    (Washington, DC, 2015-04) World Bank
    Egypt’s economic activity is gaining momentum. Growth accelerated to 5.6 percent during the first half of FY15, compared to a dismal 1.2 percent in the same period last year. The recent spike in economic activity reflects favorable base effects, but more importantly broad-based sector recovery, especially in tourism and manufacturing. On the demand side, growth continues to benefit from resilient consumption and government stimulus, supported by large financial inflows from Gulf States. In March 2015, Egypt held a high level Economic Development Conference, which culminated with the signing of sizeable investment deals worth US$36 billion, securing external financing worth US$24 billion, and the announcement of a new Gulf support package worth US$12.5 billion. This will boost the ongoing economic recovery and facilitate efforts to achieve macroeconomic stability. Annual growth is expected to double to 4.3 percent in FY15, and should increase further thereafter, compared to the muted growth of 2 percent during FY11-FY14. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted its article four consultation in November 2014 and the final report generally commended the authorities’ medium term plans while highlighting some risks including slippage in implementing reforms and a large external financing gap. Egypt’s main risk is to sustain the ongoing economic recovery which requires improved security. Notwithstanding the authorities’ ambitious fiscal consolidation plan, the deficit and debt aggregates will remain high and unsustainable. Further, there are risks of policy slippage as some details and the exact timing of policy measures are still missing and implementation capacity remains a challenge. Further, sustaining the reform pace requires efficient and well-targeted safety nets, which might take time to build. Finally, there is significant uncertainty regarding the financing of the announced mega-projects and the potential contingent liabilities that may arise.
  • Publication
    Yemen : Economic Monitoring Report
    (Washington, DC, 2005-04) World Bank
    Decelerating Gross Domestic Product, or GDP growth widening primary non-oil fiscal deficit persisting double digit inflation and rapidly dwindling current account surpluses characterize the weaknesses in the Yemeni economy. Decline in oil production is proving to be an important turning point in Yemen s economic development. With the annual growth of GDP projected around percent for the second year in a row Yemen s per capita GDP is set to decline again in 2005. Underlying primary non-oil fiscal deficit continued to widen to 27 percent of GDP in 2004, reflecting the poor resource mobilization efforts. Inflation has persisted near 12 percent annual rate in the last two years and the inevitable revisions to petroleum prices and introduction of general sales tax will call for tighter monetary management to contain inflation in 2005. The buffer of foreign exchange reserves that the government has built to US $ 5 billion from high oil prices by end 2004 (some months of imports equivalent), could only provide a temporary cushion against erosion of current account balance.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Comoros Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18) World Bank Group
    The Union of the Comoros (The Comoros) has significant vulnerability to climate change-related risks but has considerable opportunities to strengthen preparedness and resilience against these challenges. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, the Comoros is the 29th-most vulnerable country to climate change and the 163rd most ready to adapt (out of 191). The Comoros archipelago is exposed to many natural hazards that adversely affect the country’s natural capital, people, and physical infrastructure. In 2014, the economic cost of climate-related disasters was estimated at 5.7 million dollars annually, equivalent to 9.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between 2018 and 2023, as many as 11 tropical depressions or cyclones impacted the country, with Cyclone Kenneth causing the greatest damage, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, resulting in total economic growth falling from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019. More than 345,000 people (40 percent of the population) were affected by the cyclone, with 185,000 people experiencing severe impacts and 12,000 people displaced. However, there is an opportunity for the country to grow more robust and shock-responsive, and to establish pre-positioned funding mechanisms to enhance future crisis response efforts. For the Comoros, adaptation and climate-resilient development are the key climate change focus areas, with the country projected to face 836 million dollars 2050 in additional costs due to climate-related impacts. Current plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the Comoros include efforts to improve water management, strengthen coastal protection, and develop climate-smart agriculture practices. Given the country’s reliance on its natural resource base for economic growth and mobility, protection of these resources from climate change will be essential for promoting resilient growth and development. In addition to growing the adaptive capacity of the country’s natural resource sectors, strategic economic diversification will be important to help minimize future climate impacts, and development activities will need to be undertaken in such a way as to attract low-carbon co-benefits. The Union of the Comoros is committed to addressing climate change through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and national priorities. The country’s NDC (which was revised in 2021 for a ten-year horizon) sets ambitious targets, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent by 2030. The country also plans to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in its energy portfolio, reaching 33 MW by 2030. This will not only promote low-carbon development but also reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal, which currently make up 95 percent of the energy mix. Additionally, the Comoros has declared its intention to increase CO2 removals by 47 percent by 2030, compared to BAU.
  • Publication
    Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05) World Bank
    The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.
  • Publication
    Senegal Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-05) World Bank Group
    Climate action offers an opportunity to safeguard development gains and accompany the ambitious transformation Senegal is embarking on to achieve its objective of reaching middle income status in the next decade. While the country was among the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), poverty reduction was slow, vulnerabilities persisted, and inequalities increased. In addition, overall productivity remained low, with lagging structural transformation, high informality, and low job creation. To attain its middle-income goal, Senegal must initiate a series of reforms for a productive, sustainable, and inclusive growth model, with climate considerations at the center given the country’s high vulnerability. Senegal’s high climate vulnerability is caused by the country’s coastal exposure and reliance on natural resources for food, jobs, and growth (partly a consequence of its slow structural transformation). With temperatures soaring, precipitation expected to decrease, and erosion threatening 75 percent of the coastline at term, Senegal’s population and assets are under high risk. The poorest are particularly vulnerable, with 55 percent of total households teetering on the edge of poverty because of recurrent shocks. Without action, annual economic losses could reach 3-4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as soon as 2030 and further increase to 9.4 percent by 2050, wiping years of per capita income growth and eroding any potential human capital accumulation. Overall, climate change could push two more million Senegalese in poverty by mid-century. Building resilience and leveraging the low-carbon economy will help Senegal realizing its growth ambitions, contributing to a more productive, sustainable, and inclusive development pathway. The macro-economic analysis for this CCDR finds that adaptation measures in selected sectors could bring GDP gains of about 2 percent by 2030, and between 0.5 and 1 percent afterwards (for climate financing needs of about 0.9 percent of GDP in the period to 2030 and 0.1 percent afterwards). Adaptation could also reduce poverty headcount, with 40 percent less people pushed into poverty by climate change compared to no adaptation action. In addition, emission reductions could reach 20MtCO2e per year over the period to 2050, from interventions in forestry, improved cooking services, urban transport, waste management, and energy production. The energy transition provides an opportunity to meet both development and climate objectives, exceeding NDC targets and putting the country well on track for net zero by 2050, but significant downside risks remain, linked to delays in the deployment and financing availability for renewable generation and domestic gas. Senegal’s formidable renewable energy potential (chiefly around solar) offers the lowest cost generation option to meet rising energy demand while accelerating decarbonization. At term, the country could play a leading role in decarbonizing the region though export opportunities and bolster resilience across the regional grid. In the short term, given constraints to the fast deployment of renewables, the transitional use of domestic gas will help phase out expensive and high-emitting coal and Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) generation, while balancing the electricity system and lowering the cost of electricity. Climate action will require a financing of US$8.2 billion over 2025-30 (in present value, at 6 percent per year), or 4.5 percent of discounted cumulative GDP over the same period, and US$10.6 billion over 2031-50 (in present value terms), or 2.0 percent of discounted cumulative GDP over the same period. Water security, sustainable (urban) transport, and the energy transition account for the largest share. Importantly, climate action is expected to bring significant benefits over time, beyond climate adaptation and mitigation – including health or jobs, (as in the primary sector, with 155,000 jobs created, of which 80 percent in agriculture). Many benefits could not be properly estimated, implying that the returns from climate action might well be underestimated.
  • Publication
    Gabon Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-01) World Bank
    Gabon has a unique opportunity to drive inclusive growth, reduce poverty, and build a resilient post-oil economy, with climate action accelerating progress toward these goals. The country’s main development challenge is achieving higher growth and poverty reduction, as stronger growth is needed regardless of projected climate shocks to create jobs, raise living standards, and enable a viable post-oil economy. While pursuing growth-promoting economic reforms, climate action that prioritizes people must remain central to its development pathway. However, climate change risks exacerbating poverty and regional inequalities in a country already facing long-term challenges in expanding economic opportunities and basic public services, especially in rural areas. Climate shifts compound these challenges, making stronger private sector-led growth driven by reforms essential for resilience, diversification, job creation, and poverty reduction, though targeted investments in adaptation will still be required to mitigate climate shocks. Using a whole-of-economy approach, the Gabon Country Climate Development Report (CCDR) estimates that climate change impacts could result in GDP losses of 3.5 to 5.3 percent per year through 2050 compared to a business-as-usual baseline trajectory.
  • Publication
    Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03) World Bank Group
    This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.