Publication:
Weather, Water, and Work: Climatic Water Variability and Labor Market Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (859.44 KB)
143 downloads
English Text (94.43 KB)
16 downloads
Date
2024-06-27
ISSN
Published
2024-06-27
Editor(s)
Abstract
Vulnerability to climate change and water scarcity is increasing globally. How this affects individual employment outcomes is still not well understood. Using survey data collected from approximately half a million individuals across Sub-Saharan Africa over from 2005 to 2018, this paper examines the causal relationship between water availability and labor market outcomes. It combines georeferenced household survey data with a drought index that captures the exogenous effects of both rainfall and temperature on water availability. The findings suggest that extremely dry periods decrease employment by 2.5 percentage points on average, and wet periods with an abundance of soil moisture (not flooding) increase employment by 4 percentage points. The negative effects of dry shocks are larger in rural, poorer, and agriculture-dependent areas and for individuals who hold low-skilled jobs or work as farmers. Moreover, the paper finds that the burden of dry shocks disproportionately falls on women, while the benefits of wet shocks accrue more to men. The presence of irrigation infrastructure and the historical evolution of local livelihood strategies—historical mode of subsistence—partly mediate the impacts of water shocks.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Khan, Amjad M.; Kuate, Landry; Pongou, Roland; Zhang, Fan. 2024. Weather, Water, and Work: Climatic Water Variability and Labor Market Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. Policy Research Working Paper; 10823. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41789 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05) Foster, Elizabeth; Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell; Ibarra, Gabriel Lara; Lakner, Christoph; Tettah-Baah, Samuel
    Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.
  • Publication
    Geopolitical Fragmentation and Friendshoring
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-26) Grover, Arti; Vézina, Pierre-Louis
    This paper examines the relationship between geopolitical fragmentation and friendshoring of foreign investments over time, countries, and sectors. The analysis uses comprehensive data on foreign direct investments covering greenfield projects, mergers and acquisitions, and stocks of affiliates, as well as data on four alternative measures of geopolitical distance between countries. The gravity estimations suggest that, first, geopolitical differences have a negative effect on foreign investments and the magnitude has heightened in the post-pandemic period compared to a decade ago. Second, it is primarily the companies from advanced Western economies whose foreign investment decisions are increasingly shaped by friendshoring forces. Finally, the paper shows that friendshoring is not only confined to strategic industries, implying that allocations of foreign direct investments may not solely reflect national security or resilience considerations.
  • Publication
    Soaring Food Prices Threaten Recent Economic Gains in the EU
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-02) Robayo, Monica; Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro; Delgado-Prieto, Lukas; Badiani-Magnusson, Reena
    The surge in food prices following the 2021 economic rebound has become a significant concern for households, particularly low-income ones, in Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, and Romania. Food price inflation, which surpasses general inflation rates, risks worsening poverty and food insecurity in these countries. This paper explores the distributional impacts of rising food prices and the effectiveness of government response measures. Low-income households, who allocate a larger share of their income to food, are disproportionately affected and are struggling to cope with unexpected expenses, leading to increased difficulties in accessing proper nutrition. Simulations indicate that rising food prices contribute to higher poverty rates and greater income inequality, especially among vulnerable populations. They also suggest that the main poverty-targeted social assistance schemes offer critical support for the extreme poor, but expanding both coverage and benefits is vital to shield all at-risk individuals. Targeted policies that balance immediate relief with long-term resilience-building are essential to addressing the challenges posed by escalating food prices.
  • Publication
    Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03) Vagliasindi, Maria; Gorgulu, Nisan
    This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Economics of Irrigation Water Management : A Literature Survey with Focus on Partial and General Equilibrium Models
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-03) Dudu, Hasan; Chumi, Sinqobile
    Water policy is an important topic on the agenda of the international community, and efficiency and equity in the allocation of water have emerged as important factors to be considered. Water pricing can be used to mitigate both the quantity and quality dimensions of water scarcity. This paper reviews partial equilibrium models and general equilibrium models that are relevant to irrigation water management issues. The most widely discussed issues in these models are water markets and water pricing. The interrelationships between economic, cultural, social, and political aspects that are related to water policy make it difficult to provide a comprehensive policy analysis. General equilibrium models of irrigation water management allow incorporation of both the irrigation sector and the other sectors in the economy and analysis of policies affecting each of them and the interaction between them. In addition to being able to address sector and household specifications, production factors, time horizon, pricing policies, and institutions such as water markets, general equilibrium models allow the analysis of the impact of water policies on equity and poverty alleviation. The authors conclude that, although there has been a significant increase in efforts to analyze water related problems, analytical and empirical research in the field is still deficient and more effort is needed to address them.
  • Publication
    Reengaging in Agricultural Water Management: Challenges and Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006) World Bank
    The overall goal of this report is to give strategic focus to implementation of the agricultural water management (AWM) components of the corporate strategies. Its specific objectives are to set out the changing context of demand and supply for agricultural water; to identify the policy, institutional, and incentive reform options that will accelerate productivity improvements and pro-poor growth; and to articulate priorities for investment in AWM. It is also intended to define the role of the public sector and other stakeholders, and to set out how AWM can be best integrated upstream into water resources management, and downstream as an input provider into the agricultural economy.
  • Publication
    Making the Most of Scarcity : Accountability for Better Water Management Results in the Middle East and North Africa
    (Washington, DC, 2007) World Bank
    Water -- the resource itself as well as the irrigation and water supply services derived from it is important for every country. It is fundamental to human health, wellbeing, productivity, and livelihoods. It is also essential for the long-term sustainability of ecosystems. Here, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the most water-scarce region of the world, good water management matters even more than it does elsewhere. The report suggests that MENA can meet its water management challenge. People have a very real need for water for drinking and for household uses. This domestic use, however, accounts for less than ten percent of a typical country's water consumption. Every country in the region has enough water resources to meet domestic needs, even accounting for the larger populations expected in the future. And policy decisions can help improve the way drinking water and sanitation services are delivered so that people get the services they need. The bulk of a typical country's water consumption goes to agriculture. This demand depends on such factors as the structure of the economy, people's consumption preferences, agriculture and trade policies, and how efficiently water is used. These factors can be influenced by policy choices. Similarly, countries can protect their environmental quality with policy and institutional choices. The necessary policy changes are far from easy. Yet they are essential, and, when coupled with improvements in accountability to the public, water resources and services will support communities and promote economic development and bring benefits to the entire population.
  • Publication
    Climate Change and Poverty : An Integrated Strategy for Adaptation
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-07) Hull, Catherine; Cord, Louise; Hennet, Christel; Van der Vink, Gregory
    Developing countries are most exposed to the impact of climate change and within these countries, the poor face the brunt of the burden. Climate change is not a discrete problem that can be dealt with through isolated reforms: impacting economic growth, health, and institutional capacity, it represents a full-frontal challenge to development. This note traces the multi-dimensional impacts of climate change, particularly on the poor, and proposes a three pronged integrated response to promote adaptation and help poor households cope with related risks.
  • Publication
    Making Work Pay in Nicaragua : Employment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2008) Gutierrez, Catalina; Paci, Pierella; Ranzani, Marco
    The objective of this report is to provide some policy guidelines for the fight against poverty. In particular, it hopes to be able to identify the growing sectors, as well as the constraints faced by the poor in benefiting from this growth. The report is part of a series of studies conducted within the Poverty Reduction Group (PRMPR) to foster understanding of the role of employment earnings and labor markets in shared growth. In addition, it is intended to function as a background document for the World Bank's Nicaragua Poverty Assessment 2007. The degree to which growth is able to translate into poverty reduction depends on how its benefits are distributed among different segments of society. There is little doubt that growth measured by changes in average income contributes significantly to poverty reduction. However, it is also clear that countries differ in the degree to which income growth spells have translated into poverty reduction. Although differences in the responsiveness of poverty to income growth account for a small fraction of the overall differences in poverty changes across countries, from the point of view of an individual country, these differences may have significant implications for poverty reduction, especially in the short term.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Argentina Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    Digital-in-Health
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-18) World Bank
    Technology and data are integral to daily life. As health systems face increasing demands to deliver new, more, better, and seamless services affordable to all people, data and technology are essential. With the potential and perils of innovations like artificial intelligence the future of health care is expected to be technology-embedded and data-linked. This shift involves expanding the focus from digitization of health data to integrating digital and health as one: Digital-in-Health. The World Bank’s report, Digital-in-Health: Unlocking the Value for Everyone, calls for a new digital-in-health approach where digital technology and data are infused into every aspect of health systems management and health service delivery for better health outcomes. The report proposes ten recommendations across three priority areas for governments to invest in: prioritize, connect and scale.
  • Publication
    World Bank Annual Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25) World Bank
    This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.