Publication: Lao PDR Economic Monitor, December 2011: Sustaining Growth Coping with Rising Uncertainty
Loading...
Published
2011-12
ISSN
Date
2017-05-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Lao PDR economy continues to grow vigorously at 8 percent this year despite the impact of typhoons and slower growth in the global economy. That being said, the country's growth estimate was revised slightly downwards to 8 percent from an early estimate of 8.6 percent to account for (i) the adverse impact on agriculture by the typhoons Haima and Nock ten during the second half of the year as well as the adverse impact of the current flooding in Thailand on Lao PDR's tourism and trade sectors; (ii) an upward revision of 2010 Goss Domestic Product (GDP) due to a higher than anticipated output of electricity generation from the Nam Theun 2 project; and (iii) the commencement of operations at the Nam Ngum 2 hydropower dam. The mining sector's contribution to growth in 2011 is expected to slow according to company production plans and actual outputs in the first 3 quarters of this year. The manufacturing sector is projected to grow at 15 percent driven by garment, construction materials, and food and beverage production. The garment sector started shifting production towards higher value-added products and began benefiting this year from the European Union (EU) relaxing material sourcing regulations for LDCs. The services sector is also benefiting from higher domestic demand, particularly for wholesale, retail trading and telecommunications. With significant challenges and risks ahead - increasing uncertainties, particularly on signs of spreads of debt concerns in Europe, over-heating in emerging economies (high inflation) and price volatility, global economic growth is projected to slow in 2011 and 2012. Emerging and developing economies are projected to experience healthy growth in the near term. Challenges lie on two main fronts, i.e. rebalancing from public to private demand, particularly in advanced economies and rebalancing domestic demand, particularly in emerging and developing economies in order to promote resilience to external shocks and further reduce inflationary pressures. This paper bases its country-level projections for Lao PDR's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and export demand on International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank's projections (EAP Update Nov-2011) for the regional and global economic outlook and commodity prices.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2011. Lao PDR Economic Monitor, December 2011: Sustaining Growth Coping with Rising Uncertainty. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26662 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, February 2012(Washington, DC, 2012-02)Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices.Publication Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, October 2011(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-10)The economic rebound in recent quarters has been stronger than expected and the economy is showing signs of overheating. These signs are show up in rising inflation, especially of those goods and services which are in strong demand, but cannot easily be imported or whose local supply cannot readily be increased to meet the growing demand. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 20.8 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q3, following an outturn of 17.3 percent in Q2. Growth for the year as a whole will likely hit 15 percent, if not more, up from 6.4 percent in 2010, and is being pushed by infrastructure spending as Mongolia develops its vast mineral wealth. Inflation continues its upward trend. The trade deficit is close to record levels (US$ 1.4 bn in September using 12-month rolling sums) driven by a surge in mining-related equipment and fuel imports. Exports are growing strongly too, driven by large coal shipments to China. The 2012 budget continues this fiscal expansion and targets a 74 percent increase in expenditures (mostly on wages and social transfers).Publication Tightening Demand to Maintain Macroeconomic Balances : Lao PDR Economic Monitor, November 2012(World Bank, Vientiane, 2012-11)Global and regional economic development continues to face uncertainties in 2012. East Asia and the Pacific region's growth is estimated to slow down compared to 2011, but remains robust compared with other regions thanks to sustained domestic investment and consumption. Lao PDR continues to maintain robust growth this year but faces a challenge to manage domestic demand. On the supply side, the construction, services, industry and agriculture sectors are the main drivers of growth; while on the demand side, public spending and private investment including demand driven by preparations for the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) has played an important role in boosting the economy this year. In spite of robust growth, inflation has been declining, mostly on account of declining food and fuel inflation. However, home-grown and external risks associated with low reserves coverage, increased exposure to mining revenues, fast banking expansion with limited supervision capacity and a large number of newly announced large investment projects warrant close monitoring to preserve macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth. Stronger than expected revenue performance from the mining sector and external grants contributed to an improvement in the fiscal performance in FY11/12.With the contribution of mining revenue increasing, closely monitoring commodity price fluctuations is becoming increasingly important. The fiscal deficit in FY12/13 is expected to slightly widen as a result of a planned wage increase. Strong pressure on external reserves calls for tightening of aggregate demand. Credit growth remains high and is putting pressure on falling reserves. Credit growth has picked up in June 2012 driven by increased credit to the private sector and SOEs. Private sector credit growth is driven by buoyant performance in construction, manufacturing and service sectors. The Bank of Lao PDR's disbursements to local infrastructure projects have moderated compared to their peak in 2009, but are ongoing as a result of previous commitments.Publication Philippine Economic Update, August 2014 : Investing in the Future, Sharing Growth and Job Opportunities for All(Washington, DC, 2014-08-01)After recording strong growth in the last two years, Philippine economic growth decelerated to 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2014 (Q1 2014). After many years of slow poverty reduction, poverty incidence declined by 3 percentage points (PPT) between 2012 and 2013 to 24.9 percent, uplifting 2.5 million Filipinos out of poverty. Given the slow start in Q1 2014, lower government spending in second quarter of 2014 (Q2 2014), and monetary policy tightening, baseline growth projections is revised downwards from 6.6 to 6.4 percent for 2014 and from 6.9 to 6.7 percent for 2015. Strong liquidity and credit growth, as well as higher food and energy prices, continue to exert some risks to price and financial stability. In the medium-term, growth can be sustained and made more inclusive by pursuing structural reforms and investing more in human and physical capital. The Aquino administration has successfully raised tax effort by 1.2 PPT of gross domestic product (GDP) in the last 3 years through the sin tax reform, improved tax administration, and higher growth. These reforms can help the country become more competitive, and in the process create more and better jobs, and accelerate poverty reduction. The Philippine economic update provides an update on key economic and social developments as well as policies over the past 6 months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank studies on the Philippines.Publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly, December 2014 : Delivering Change(Washington, DC, 2014-12)The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia s economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia s economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia s evolving economy.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Sustaining and Sharing Economic Growth in Tanzania : Contents of CD Rom(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2007)This book is designed to contribute to the government's thinking on how best to translate broad MKUKUTA (the government of Tanzania's National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty) policy objectives into practical tactics and programs well suited to Tanzania's economic priorities and to the removal of key institutional and infrastructure bottlenecks. The book aims to respond to three fundamental questions: (a) what factors explain Tanzania's recent acceleration in economic growth, (b) how well has the accelerated growth translated into reduced poverty, and (c) what needs to be done to sustain growth that is also pro-poor. This book focuses on three issues that are central to the success of Tanzania's poverty reduction efforts: What factors explain Tanzania's recent acceleration in economic growth? Has the accelerated economic growth translated into reduced poverty? What must be done to sustain economic growth that is pro-poor? The book presents evidence from the macroeconomic, sectoral, firm, and household levels that shed light on these questions. In addition, the book examines the effectiveness of measures that support the poor in efforts to accumulate human and physical capital, which would enhance their prospects of contributing to economic growth. Finally, it is important to mention that this book is a compilation of chapters written by authors from the African Development Bank (Peter Mwanakatwe), COWI Consultants (Kerstin Pfliegner), independent consultancies (Marianne Simonsen and Annabella Skof), and the World Bank (Jean-Eric Aubert, Vandana Chandra, Louise Fox, Henry Gordon, Johannes Hoogeveen, Pooja Kacker, Ying Li, Allister Moon, Philip Mpango, Ravi Ruparel, Anuja Utz, Robert J. Utz, and Michael Wong).Publication Women's Police Stations and Intimate Partner Violence(Elsevier, 2017-02)Although women's police stations have gained popularity as a measure to address intimate partner violence (IPV), there is little quantitative evaluation of their impacts on the incidence of IPV. This paper estimates the effects of women's police stations in Brazil on female homicides, a measure of the most severe form of IPV. Given that a high fraction of female deaths among women ages 15–49 years can be attributed to aggression by an intimate partner, female homicides appear the best proxy for severe IPV considering the scarcity of data on IPV in Brazil. We assemble a panel of 2074 municipalities from 2004 to 2009 and apply a difference-in-differences approach using location and timing to estimate the effect of establishing a women's police station on the municipal female homicide rate. Although we do not find a strong association on average, women's police stations appear to be highly effective among young women living in metropolitan areas. Establishing a women's police station in a metropolitan municipality is associated with a reduction in the female homicide rate by 1.23 deaths per 100,000 women ages 15–49 years (approximately a 17 percent reduction in the female homicide rate in metropolitan municipalities). The reduction in the homicide rate of women ages 15 to 24 is even higher: 5.57 deaths per 100,000 women. Better economic opportunities and less traditional social norms in metropolitan areas may explain the heterogeneous impacts of women's police stations.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Underutilized Potential(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06)This study constructs a microdata set of about 143,000 firms to estimate the monetary costs of infrastructure disruptions in 137 low- and middle-income countries, representing 78 percent of the world population and 80 percent of the GDP of low- and -middle-income countries. Specifically, this study assesses the impact of transport, electricity, and water disruptions on the capacity utilization rates of firms. The estimates suggest that utilization losses amount to $151 billion a year -- of which $107 billion are due to transport disruptions, $38 billion due to blackouts, and $6 billion due to dryouts. Moreover, this study shows that electricity outages are causing sales losses equivalent to $82 billion a year. Firms are also incurring the costs of self-generated electricity, estimated to amount to $64 billion a year (including annualized capital expenditure). At almost $300 billion a year, these figures highlight the substantial drag that unreliable infrastructure imposes on firms in developing countries. Yet, these figures are likely to be under-estimates as neither all countries nor all types of impacts are covered.Publication Protecting People and Economies(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05)The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed a global health emergency and an unprecedented economic crisis of historic magnitude. Governments facing this threat are in uncharted territory, but three policy priorities addressed in this note are clear. Disease containment is a first-order concern to combat the pandemic, and measures such as testing and tracing, coupled with isolating and treating the infected can bring first-order gains. The economic crisis requires a parallel and simultaneous effort to save jobs, protect income, and ensure access to services for vulnerable populations. As governments act to slow the pandemic and protect lives and livelihoods now, they will need to maintain macro stability, continue to build trust, and communicate clearly to avoid deeper downturns and social unrest. Looking forward, this crisis can be an opportunity to rethink policy to build back with stronger systems for people and economies.