Publication:
Dry Spells, Urban Swells: Analyzing the Drought-Induced Expansion of Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa

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dc.contributor.authorVan der Borght, Rafael
dc.contributor.authorIshizawa, Oscar A.
dc.contributor.authorThuret, Jean
dc.contributor.authorMuñoz, Joaquin
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T14:29:35Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T14:29:35Z
dc.date.issued2025-04-10
dc.description.abstractDroughts are increasingly cited as a driver of urbanization across Sub-Saharan Africa, yet little is known about the role they play in shaping the spatial expansion of cities. Combining satellite imagery on built- up areas with climatic data for 1984–2015, this study empirically examines whether and to what extent droughts influence the spatial expansion of African cities. It further investigates the heterogeneity of these effects across cities and countries. The findings indicate that extreme droughts significantly accelerate the built-up growth rate of cities, while more frequent but less severe droughts have negligible impacts. Importantly, these effects are strongly differentiated across cities. The 1 percent most extreme droughts boost the average speed at which new settlements emerge in the surroundings of a country's largest city by 75 percent, yet they do not alter the expansion of smaller cities and towns. These drought-induced effects intensify the sprawl of the largest cities and bear important policy implications. Extreme droughts put additional pressure on the largest and often overcrowded cities, potentially deepening congestion effects. They also contribute to exacerbating the speed at which cities expand in flood-prone areas, thereby magnifying urban flood risk. As the climate changes, the frequency of both extreme droughts and extreme rainfall events is projected to increase across the region, aggravating the likelihood of future drought-induced expansions of the largest cities and worsening urban flood risk prospects. These findings call for urgent and tailored risk reduction measures in both cities and rural areas.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099209004102544859
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-11099
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-11099
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/43051
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 11099
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectDROUGHT
dc.subjectCITY EXTENT
dc.subjectCLIMATE RISK
dc.subjectEARTH OBSERVATIONS
dc.subjectAFRICA
dc.titleDry Spells, Urban Swellsen
dc.title.subtitleAnalyzing the Drought-Induced Expansion of Cities in Sub-Saharan Africaen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://reproducibility.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/243 Link to reproducibility package
okr.date.disclosure2025-04-10
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-14T11:50:18.070263Z
okr.date.lastmodified2025-04-10T13:05:34Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099209004102544859
okr.guid099209004102544859
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-eb445d32-b0d9-4f70-a2d4-531d69ed4ee5
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-11099
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum40006142
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum40006142
okr.identifier.reportWPS11099
okr.import.id7069
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttps://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099209004102544859/pdf/IDU-eb445d32-b0d9-4f70-a2d4-531d69ed4ee5.pdfen
okr.region.geographicalSub-Saharan Africa
okr.sectorFY17 - Other Public Administration,FY17 - Other Public Administration,FY17 - Sub-National Government
okr.sectorPublic Administration
okr.themeFY17 - Finance for Development,FY17 - Adaptation,FY17 - Disaster Preparedness,FY17 - Disaster Risk Finance,FY17 - Disaster Risk Management,FY17 - Climate change,FY17 - Disaster Response and Recovery,FY17 - Urban Development,FY17 - Climate change,FY17 - Adaptation,FY17 - Mitigation,FY17 - Disaster Response and Recovery,FY17 - Disaster Risk Reduction,FY17 - Disaster Risk Management,FY17 - Disaster Preparedness,FY17 - Disaster Risk Finance,FY17 - Urban Infrastructure and Service Delivery,FY17 - Finance for Development
okr.themeFY17 - Environment and Natural Resource Management,FY17 - Finance,FY17 - Urban and Rural Development
okr.topicWater Resources::Drought Management
okr.topicRural Development::Natural Resources Management and Rural Issues
okr.topicUrban Development::Regional Urban Development
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change and Environment
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Development
okr.unitIAWDR - Director Infrastructure West AFR
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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