Publication: Nigeria : Where Has All the Growth Gone?
Loading...
Published
2013-08-30
ISSN
Date
2014-08-14
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This policy note will focus on the poverty trends in Nigeria using the National Living Standard Survey (NLSS) 2004 and Harmonized Nigeria Living Standard Survey (HNLSS) 2010 only. In the last decade, Nigeria has enjoyed a stable and sustained growth in a context of responsible macroeconomic management, economic stability, democracy, and reform. Nonetheless, results from household surveys conducted during the same period seem to be at odd with this particularly positive growth story: poverty declined only by two percentage points between 2004 and 2010. Poverty levels may be lower and poverty reduction faster than the official estimates suggest. Simulations and sensitivity check confirm this hypothesis and call for additional work to consolidate poverty analysis in Nigeria. An important step in this direction is increasing the collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics regarding data collection and data management. There are, however, several results from this policy note that seems to stand on solid ground. First, the historical disparities between the North and the South (more specifically South-West) appear to have remained unchanged. Second, inequality explains part of the limited poverty reduction. Third, there is evidence of structural changes in the economy. Labor absorption provides interesting insights. Larger fractions of the working age population have moved out of agriculture and joined the self-employed sector. To make faster progress in poverty reduction, Nigeria needs a game changing strategy if substantial progress has to be made in meeting the global goals of reducing extreme poverty to three percent in 2030.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2013. Nigeria : Where Has All the Growth Gone?. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19327 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Poverty Assessment for Bangladesh(World Bank, Dhaka, 2008-10)Bangladesh has made good progress in reducing poverty over the past decade despite the series of external shocks which have routinely affected the country. Poverty fell from 49 percent in 2000 to 40 percent in 2005, propelled by respectable economic growth and relatively stable inequality. These statistics are reflected in tangible improvements in poor people's lives, such as a sharp reduction in those living under flimsy straw roofs in rural areas. Unfortunately, climatic shocks such as the 2007 floods and cyclone, as well as rising food prices, have slowed the country's progress in reducing poverty. Despite these setbacks we expect that Bangladesh will reach its Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving the number of people living in extreme poverty by 2015. Poverty reduction is not just about improving household income, but also about enhancing human capability. Our optimism in Bangladesh's future is also based on its significant gains in human development over the past 15 years. Despite its recent progress in reducing poverty, Bangladesh remains a poor country with about 56 million poor people in 2005 and continuing disparities across occupational groups, gender, and regions. Although growing regional inequality is characteristic of many developing countries experiencing rapid economic growth, Bangladesh is somewhat unique in that the natural boundaries created by its rivers limit integration between economically unequal geographic areas. This report shows that higher productivity in agriculture, job creation in urban growth poles and promoting migration will be essential for further poverty reduction across Bangladesh. Sustaining this reduction will require maintaining the progress made thus far in slowing population growth, and providing better quality options in schooling and healthcare. Another urgent priority is to better coordinate the country's existing safety net system in order to expand effective programs in line with the needs of the poor.Publication Social Safety Net in the Kyrgyz Republic : Capitalizing on Achievements and Addressing New Challenges(Washington, DC, 2009-05)The present report was prepared upon the request of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic to inform policy decisions on reforming the existing safety net. The report aims at providing analytical underpinning of the country's ongoing safety net reform, along with venue for policy discussions with the Government and stakeholders on the immediate as well as on the longer-term challenges related to designing and implementing of a modern national safety net. The report's focus is on the analysis of the poverty reduction impact, targeting accuracy and coverage of the existing non-contributory social benefits, the poverty-targeted Unified Monthly Benefit (UMB) in particular, with the objectives of recognizing the strengths on which the reform can capitalize, identifying opportunities for improvement and fostering consensus building among Kyrgyz policymakers regarding the options for reforming the UMB and the broader vision of public policy in social assistance and the feasible instruments for its implementation. The focus of the report on the UMB is also determined by the need of identifying safety net instruments for mitigating the adverse effects of the economic shocks which are already affecting ECA countries, including the Kyrgyz Republic, on the poor and vulnerable. The safety net in the Kyrgyz Republic faces multiple objectives: (a) to redistribute income to the poorest and most vulnerable, with an immediate impact on poverty and inequality; (b) to help households manage risks by maintaining consumption and assets in the outburst of shocks, such as the food, fuel, financial and economic crises; and (c) to protect the livelihoods of the negatively affected by structural reforms aimed at economic growth and efficiency gains.Publication On the Long-Term Holistic Development Framework Principle of the CDF : An Evaluation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)The Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) is an initiative by the World Bank's President James D. Wolfensohn (1999), to enhance the effectiveness of the partners of development of the developing countries in bringing about desired development outcomes. According to the CDF Secretariat (2000) the CDF is 'an approach by which countries can achieve more effective poverty reduction. It emphasizes the interdependence of all elements of development, social, structural, human, governance, environmental, economic and financial.' The framework is articulated around four major principles: long-term, holistic development framework; country ownership of development programs and policies; country-led partnership among various stakeholders; and, results orientation. The remainder of this paper is organized in five sections. Section two offers an analytical framework suitable for the formulation of a holistic, long-term poverty reduction strategy. The framework is used as a benchmark against which the implementation of the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework (LTHDF) is evaluated. Section three provides a cursory and highly selective reading of the implementation of the CDF long-term holistic development framework in the six pilot countries. In this section it is assumed that the poverty reduction strategy papers provide the embodiment of the CDF principle irrespective of whether countries state this explicitly or not. Section four provides an evaluation of the implementation of the CDF principle while section five provides an evaluation of the response of donors to the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework. This section is based on a survey instrument that has been designed to elicit these responses. Section six offers a few concluding remarks and proposes a number of hypotheses that can be tested in future evaluation of the CDF.Publication Kyrgyz Republic - Profile and Dynamics of Poverty and Inequality, 2009(World Bank, 2011-10-03)Poverty reduction is an important goal for governments of many developing countries. This goal is synonymous with economic development and achieving a higher quality of life for all population groups. Thus, monitoring the dynamics of poverty and inequality is implicit in the monitoring of progress in societal development. As the vast literature shows, development progress to a large extent depends on economic and social policies and economic growth. Thus, identifying the relationship between relevant economic variables and poverty and inequality indicators may provide policy guidance on what has furthered the country's progress. The report consists of two main parts. The first part discusses poverty and inequality for 2009 and, thus, from a static perceptive. So, the first section describes and discusses the main features and correlates of the poor. The goal is to provide a brief overview of poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic and describe the characteristics of households and the poor. This is achieved by considering the poverty incidence among households and individuals differentiated by such characteristics as age, household size, employment status, educational attainment, geographic location, gender of the household head, and internal migration status of the household head. This section also incorporates some insights on poverty from a recent study carried out in the Kyrgyz Republic related to the poverty and social impact analysis of selected reforms in the social protection sector. The second section discusses the dynamics of poverty and inequality in the Kyrgyz Republic during 2006-2009. This section relates the trends of macro indicators gross domestic product, or GDP, growth in different sectors of the economy, the consumer price index [CPI], remittances, and social budget expenditures) to changes in micro indicators of interest (poverty and inequality). The objective is to integrate into one coherent picture the recent macro and micro developments. The period of 2006-2009 coincided with the food price volatility and financial crisis of 2008-09. So the distinct feature of this report is that the impact of international instabilities is reflected in the assessment of poverty and inequality. The report uses two types of data: the macroeconomic, national accounts data as regularly reported by the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic (NSC), Ministry of Finance, and National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, and microeconomic, primary data derived from the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey, or KIHS (also collected by the NSC). These two might not always be consistent with each other, but they do complement one another to provide useful policy insights.Publication Handbook on Poverty and Inequality(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009)The handbook on poverty and inequality provides tools to measure, describe, monitor, evaluate, and analyze poverty. It provides background materials for designing poverty reduction strategies. This book is intended for researchers and policy analysts involved in poverty research and policy making. The handbook began as a series of notes to support training courses on poverty analysis and gradually grew into a sixteen, chapter book. Now the Handbook consists of explanatory text with numerous examples, interspersed with multiple-choice questions (to ensure active learning) and combined with extensive practical exercises using stata statistical software. The handbook has been thoroughly tested. The World Bank Institute has used most of the chapters in training workshops in countries throughout the world, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Botswana, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malawi, Pakistan, the Philippines, Tanzania, and Thailand, as well as in distance courses with substantial numbers of participants from numerous countries in Asia (in 2002) and Africa (in 2003), and online asynchronous courses with more than 200 participants worldwide (in 2007 and 2008). The feedback from these courses has been very useful in helping us create a handbook that balances rigor with accessibility and practicality. The handbook has also been used in university courses related to poverty.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12)Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17)Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.Publication Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04)Grounded in new evidence from satellite data, “Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future” presents the first global assessment of freshwater reserves over the past two decades. The findings expose an alarming trend of “continental drying,” a persistent long-term decline in freshwater availability across vast landmasses. Not only are droughts and deluges becoming more unpredictable, but the total amount of freshwater available for use has also significantly declined. Continental drying, driven by global warming, worsening droughts, and unsustainable water and land use, is a silent but accelerating crisis—largely unknown to the public—that reshapes the global water narrative. Continental drying raises profound risks. This report reveals new empirical evidence showing how freshwater depletion leads to major job losses, reduced incomes, wildfires, and biodiversity threats. In the long term, the combined effects of drying and warming could push societies toward a tipping point where damage accelerates rapidly and adaptation becomes increasingly difficult. Against the backdrop of continental drying, global water consumption rose by 25 percent between 2000 and 2019, with about a third of this increase occurring in regions already experiencing drying. Compounding the pressure, a substantial share of water use in drying regions remains inefficient. Continental Drying identifies hot spots where rising demand and declining supply converge and explores where and how water savings can be realized. This report recommends a three-pronged approach to address the crisis: managing demand, augmenting water supply, and improving water allocation. Five cross-cutting levers—strengthening institutions, reforming water tariffs and repurposing subsidies, adopting water accounting, leveraging data and technological innovations, and valuing water in trade—are essential for effective implementation and to attract private investment to finance the approach. Beyond water, addressing trade barriers, investing in education and skills development, and improving access to markets and financial services are critical for strengthening job and livelihood resilience amid a continental drying crisis.Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.