Policy Notes

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    Opportunities for All: Brazil Policy Notes 2022
    (Washington, DC, 2022-12) World Bank
    This package of Public Policy Notes is directed to Brazilian policy makers and society to present the World Bank Group’s overview of key challenges facing the country at this juncture, and possible ways forward to address them. We present an agenda prioritized around four issues of core relevance to Brazil’s recovery and its future resilience. First is the goal of financing development sustainably given the immediate challenge of situating the country’s enormous growth, inclusion and climate action needs within a credible macroeconomic framework and efficient and effective fiscal policies. The second theme addressed in this note is building opportunities through productivity-led growth. With the growing reliance of Brazilians on social assistance policies, it is critical to keep sight of growth and jobs as the most important vehicles for the dignity and upward mobility of the poor. Third is increasing the capabilities and economic inclusion of the poor so that they are better able to capture the opportunities that come with growth. Thefourth theme we address in this note is meeting Brazil’s potential as a as a leader in green and climate friendly development. This document is accompanied by a package of six policy presentations and an underlying set of more detailed policy reports that can be accesses here: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/brazil.
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    Lesotho Policy Notes
    (Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank
    Lesotho witnessed poverty reduction prior to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the subsequent shocks, but the pace was slow, and poverty remained widespread. The World Bank Group (WBG)’s partnership with Lesotho is fully aligned with the country’s development vision articulated in the second National Strategic Development (NSDP II) and key findings of its 2021 Mid-Term Review. The overall objective of the proposed CPF FY2023-2027 is to support Lesotho in building a sustainable and resilient economy in a post-COVID environment by promoting a private sector driven, export-oriented economy for job creation supported by an enabling, efficient and effective public sector. The CPF consists of three high-level outcomes (HLOs) -increased employment in the private sector, improved human capital outcomes and improved climate resilience with seven objectives under the HLOs. There are two foundational themes (governance and government capacity, and macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability) and three approaches (gender, digitalization, and lagging-region approach) that cut across the CPF. The CPF is scheduled to be finalized with the new government by early 2023.
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    Innovation to Strengthen Social Protection and Nutritional Support within a Tuberculosis Control Program: Evidence and Emerging Lessons from India
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-10) World Bank
    Eliminating tuberculosis (TB) as a public health concern is not only about saving lives, but also equally an important economic investment. In line with this, the Government of India (GOI) has a target of elimination of TB by 2025, through innovative measures, including providing multiple direct benefit transfer (DBT) schemes for patients and providers and using technology to strengthen service delivery. The GOI has implemented DBT for more than 300 social protection schemes, including eleven in the health sector. This policy brief explicitly focuses on the DBT scheme for TB patients. The four supporting DBT schemes for TB include: (i) under the Ni-Kshay Poshan Yojana (NPY), monetary incentives are provided for each notified TB patient until the completion of the treatment; (ii) Ni-Kshay monetary incentives are provided for the private providers and informants for the notification and until completion of the treatment of patients treated by private providers; (iii) transport monetary incentive for TB patients in notified tribal areas; and (iv) honorarium to treatment supporters who may be individual volunteers or non-profit organizations providing support to TB patients. This policy brief documents and distills lessons from NPY’s early implementation of DBT in three states and six districts in India.
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    Energy Crisis: Protecting Economies and Enhancing Energy Security in Europe and Central Asia
    (Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank
    This companion piece to the Fall 2022 ECA Economic Update provides an overview of the policy options available to countries to respond to the energy price shock and examines how this crisis could harness the clean energy transition to enhance collective energy security. The options to support energy markets, vulnerable households, and firms will vary, depending on specific country contexts, including exposure to gas and electricity supply risks and the fiscal space available to mitigate their impact. Well-coordinated and calibrated fiscal and monetary policies are needed to manage the impact of the price shock. Countries will also need to consider the implications of any policy choice on the transition to a greener economy and development trajectories. This note is organized as follows. Section 2 provides an overview of the broader economic impact of the energy price shock on economic growth, inflation, and public finances in the ECA region. Section 3 provides policy options to help countries adapt to the energy crisis related to managing both demand and supply. Section 4 presents a set of principles to guide the policy response for supporting vulnerable households. Section 5 presents a set of principles to guide the policy response for supporting firms. Section 6 concludes with a summary of recommendations for dealing with the crisis and transitioning to a greener economy.
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    Is a Global Recession Imminent?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09) Guénette, Justin Damien ; Kose, M.Ayhan ; Sugawara, Naotaka
    Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible scenarios for the global economy in 2022–24. We report three major findings. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. The policy actions in many countries are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could have larger impacts than envisioned—both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the global growth slowdown. Third, if the degree of global monetary policy tightening markets now expect is not enough to reduce inflation to targets, experience from previous global recessions suggests that the additional tightening needed could cause significant financial stress and increase the likelihood of a global recession next year. These findings imply that policymakers need to carefully calibrate, clearly communicate, and credibly implement their policy actions while considering potential international spillovers, especially given the globally synchronous withdrawal of monetary and fiscal policies. They also need to pursue supply-side measures to overcome constraints confronting labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
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    Myanmar Financial Sector Reforms: Policy Note
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-07-08) World Bank
    During Myanmar's decade of reforms, financial sector reforms were widely recognized to be a critical underpinning of Myanmar's democratization process, enabling the transition to a more egalitarian, accessible economy. Accordingly, the government developed a program of wide-ranging financial sector reform and development as described in the Financial Sector Development Strategy 2015-2020, and then supplemented and updated their approach via other strategy documents. informal providers, who could charge usury rates with little oversight. Despite significant political economy challenges and capacity constraints, since 2011 policymakers were able to carry out a substantial program of reforms to strengthen the financial sector and promote market development. However, due to the impact of COVID and the coup of February 2021, this reform agenda is at severe risk of stagnation or reversal. Progress in the modernization and accessibility of the financial sector is contingent on stability and the confidence of the public in financial institutions. Rectifying the damage to the sector under current circumstances seems especially challenging, unless there is stability and the public's confidence in the financial system is restored incrementally.
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    Collection of Policy Notes for the New Somali Government: Unlocking Somalia’s Potential to Stabilize, Grow and Prosper
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-06) World Bank
    The arrival of a new government provides an opportunity to reinvigorate the reform agenda to deliver inclusive growth for the Somali people. Since the establishment of the Provisional Constitution in 2012, Somalia has made commendable progress on many fronts. Macroeconomic stability has been maintained, high levels of indebtedness are being addressed through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, several sector laws and institutions have been established, and a poverty reduction strategy paper has been developed – the ninth National Development Plan (NDP9). However, much remains to be done and the time has come to mark the next milestone in Somalia’s development trajectory through advancing reforms anchored in the HIPC process. The objective of the collection of policy notes is to provide sector-specific policy advice for the leadership of the new government, drawing on the expertise of the World Bank Group. This overview chapter synthesizes the advice across the sector policy notes and is organized in four sections. The first section outlines the current context. The second section presents the framework for organizing the policy notes. The third section summarizes the advice, and the fourth section concludes.
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    Do Uslug? At Your Service: The Promise of Services-Led Development in Poland
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-31) World Bank
    The services sector has played an important role in the structural transformation of Poland, providing employment opportunities, and creating productivity growth. Close to 60 percent of employees now work in the services sector. Nevertheless, the sector’s productivity lags that of other countries, and Poland’s service sector is dominated more by low-skilled, intensive services and less by ‘global innovator’ services (e.g., ICT and financial and other professional services). The services sector in Poland is dominated by smaller, less productive firms, highlighting a potential area for improvement. Linkages between the services sector and the manufacturing sector appear weaker in Poland than in other EU countries. A high share of services (42 percent) is produced for domestic households rather than for other firms. Targeting the growth of enabling service sectors to allow spillovers into other sectors offers another area for improvement.
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    Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Global Economy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-31) Guenette, Justin Damien ; Kenworthy, Philip George ; Wheeler, Collette Mari
    The war in Ukraine is causing an enormous humanitarian crisis. More than 12 million people are estimated to have been displaced and more than 13 million need urgent humanitarian assistance. Ukraine’s economy is being devastated. Trauma suffered by the population will have enduring consequences. The war is triggering global ripple effects through multiple channels, including commodity markets, trade, financial flows, displaced people, and market confidence. In the surrounding region, a large wave of refugees will put pressure on basic services. The damage to Russia’s economy will weigh on remittance flows to many neighboring countries. Disruptions to regional supply chains and financial networks, as well as heightened investor risk perceptions, will weaken regional growth
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    Constraints to Sustainable, Efficient, and Resilient Irrigation Systems in Georgia - What is a Possible Way Forward?: Irrigation Sector Policy Note
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-28) Vidal, Romain ; Pignatti, Norberto ; Sinha, Ranu ; Chachava, Mariam ; Pavlenishvili, Levan ; Fraval, Pierrick
    Agriculture plays a vital role in the economy of Georgia despite the relatively small size of the sector. Agriculture is the country’s largest employer and makes a significant contribution to exports even though agriculture contributes a modest share to total GDP. Following the collapse of the former Soviet Union, actual irrigated area in Georgia declined significantly. Georgia is currently facing important challenges related to the development of its agricultural sector, which requires the rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage systems and the establishment of institutional organizations that makes it sustainable. This policy note on the irrigation sector supports the World Bank-led analytical study on Agricultural, Land, and Water Policies to Scale-Up Sustainable Agri-Food Systems in Georgia. It was carried out during the months of April to July 2021, in close collaboration with the main stakeholders of the irrigation sector in Georgia and the services of the World Bank. The analysis in this policy note identifies the core constraints, which are hindering irrigation sector performance in Georgia and leading to the slow implementation of the irrigation strategy with a brief overview of some of the factors that are contributing to these constraints.