Publication:
A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis

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dc.contributor.authorPenson, Steve
dc.contributor.authorLomme, Mathijs
dc.contributor.authorCarmichael, Zacharey
dc.contributor.authorManni, Alemu
dc.contributor.authorShrestha, Sudeep
dc.contributor.authorAndree, Bo Pieter Johannes
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-09T20:42:14Z
dc.date.available2024-05-09T20:42:14Z
dc.date.issued2024-05-09
dc.description.abstractThe Republic of Yemen is enduring the world's most severe protracted humanitarian crisis, compounded by conflict, economic collapse, and natural disasters. Current food insecurity assessments rely on expert evaluation of evidence with limited temporal frequency and foresight. This paper introduces a data-driven methodology for the early detection and diagnosis of food security emergencies. The approach optimizes for simplicity and transparency, and pairs quantitative indicators with data-driven optimal thresholds to generate early warnings of impending food security emergencies. Historical validation demonstrates that warnings can be reliably issued before sharp deterioration in food security occurs, using only a few critical indicators that capture inflation, conflict, and agricultural productivity shocks. These indicators signal deterioration most accurately at five months of lead time. The paper concludes that simple data-driven approaches show a strong capability to generate reliable food security warnings in Yemen, highlighting their potential to complement existing assessments and enhance lead time for effective intervention.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099709505092462162/IDU1fd335ca917518148461a5b1154ba368027ff
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10768
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/41534
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 10768
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectCRISIS
dc.subjectEARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE ANALYSIS
dc.subjectVULNERABILITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC MONITORING
dc.subjectZERO HUNGER
dc.subjectSDG 2
dc.titleA Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisisen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://reproducibility.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/159 Link to data and reproducibility package
okr.crossref.titleA Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis
okr.date.disclosure2024-05-09
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-27T02:23:12.046538Z
okr.date.lastmodified2024-05-09T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099709505092462162/IDU1fd335ca917518148461a5b1154ba368027ff
okr.guid099709505092462162
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-fd335ca9-7518-4846-a5b1-54ba368027ff
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10768
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10768
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34316081
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34316081
okr.identifier.reportWPS10768
okr.import.id4130
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099709505092462162/pdf/IDU1fd335ca917518148461a5b1154ba368027ff.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.countryYemen, Republic of
okr.topicAgriculture::Food Security
okr.topicAgriculture::Agricultural Research
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Finance and Development
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Social Protections & Assistance
okr.unitEFI-MNA-POV-Poverty and Equity (EMNPV)
okr.unitDevelopment Data Group (DECDG)
okr.unitAgriculture and Food GE (SAGGL)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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