Publication: Impacts of the Triple Global Crisis on Growth and Poverty : The Case of Yemen
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Date
2011
ISSN
09506764
Published
2011
Author(s)
Breisinger, Clemens
Diao, Xinshen
Collion, Marie-Helen
Rondot, Pierre
Abstract
Yemen is an oil-exporting and food-importing country with the highest levels of poverty in the Middle East and North Africa. The impacts of the triple crisis are likely to further complicate pre-existing conditions of conflict, oil depletion and governance failure. Using a dynamic CGE model, this article finds that oil-driven growth in 2008 dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis, but that growth was not pro-poor. The financial crisis of 2009 slowed growth sharply and raised the poverty rate to 42.8%, up from 34.8% in 2005/6. Poverty continues to be higher in rural areas, where almost half the population live in poverty.