Publication: Timor-Leste Economic Report, December 2022: Honoring the Past, Securing the Future
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2022-12
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2023-02-15
2023-03-06
2023-03-06
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The global economy continues to face steep challenges, but Timor-Leste’s economy is slowly recovering. Nevertheless, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Consumer price inflation reached 7.9 percent yoy in August 2022, one of the highest in the East Asia Pacific region. The real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated by about 10 percent since the first quarter of 2021. Enhancing productive capabilities through structural reforms and improving quality of public spending hold the key for accelerating and sustaining economic development. Extending the life of petroleum fund through fiscal consolidation is essential to delay the fiscal cliff and ensure the perpetuation of government spending to support economic growth. Despite receding impact of the pandemic, the level of government spending has not returned to the pre-COVID 19 levels.
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“World Bank. 2022. Timor-Leste Economic Report, December 2022: Honoring the Past, Securing the Future. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39439 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Timor-Leste Social Assistance : Public Expenditure and Program Performance Report(Washington, DC, 2013-06-24)The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste is a young, post-conflict nation endowed with significant oil revenues. Timor-Leste has one of the highest birth rates in the world (2.41 percent population growth) with over 44 percent of the population below 15 years of age (Timor-Leste Census, 2010). Since the 2006 crisis, the Government of Timor-Leste has shown a clear commitment to social assistance. Globally, poverty persistence is closely related to major life-cycle disadvantages resulting in low human capital outcomes, and yet large-scale poverty remains unaddressed by current social protection efforts. This expenditure review and performance evaluation report is part of the technical assistance provided to Timor-Leste's Ministry of Social Solidarity (MSS) in response to the lack of any national level evaluation of the safety nets system since its inception. 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Chapter eight concludes with implications for social response and policy considerations.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, December 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-01)Given the finite nature of petroleum resources and associated sovereign wealth fund, it iscritical for Timor-Leste to build a strong foundation for sustainable revenue mobilization tofinance public spending on development and poverty reduction. Timor-Leste faces the risks ofa fiscal cliff as, under the current spending trajectories, the Petroleum Fund may be fullyexhausted in about ten years. In line with the recent Government’s efforts, there is an opportunity to collect more revenue using value-added and property taxes. The income tax rate is among the lowest in the world while most excise tax rates are insufficient. 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The economy is expected to recover in the medium-term, but structural constraints will remain an impediment to faster growth. Reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness are critical. COVID-19 and recent floods have highlighted and exacerbated underlying weaknesses in Timor-Leste’s health system. Disruptions to health and nutrition services arising from these crises may have a multiplier effect on access to care for routine and essential care, setting back the country’s progress on health outcomes and human capital development.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, September 2025: Land of Opportunities - How Modern Land Administration Can Unlock Timor-Leste’s Economic Transformation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-19)Timor-Leste is at a defining moment - one that brings both urgent challenges and real opportunities to build a more resilient and prosperous future. With oil production halted, the country now relies on withdrawals from its Petroleum Fund, which can be depleted by 2038. This raises a pressing question: how can Timor-Leste build a sustainable future and preserve its fiscal buffers? The stakes are high, but so is the potential, with several pathways already emerging. Membership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) promises deeper regional integration, long-delayed infrastructure projects are starting to bear fruit, and the tourism sector is rebounding. To seize this moment, Timor-Leste needs to mobilize its financial assets to grow its private sector, but for this to happen it needs to tackle the lack of land tenure security which is a barrier to investment across the board. Get this right, and Timor-Leste can become a model for sustainable growth in Southeast Asia.
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It is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% per year, which corresponds to an additional 1 million residents moving to cities every year. If this trend continues, the urban population could double in just 15 years. Thus, with a population of 12 million and a growth rate of 5.1% per year, Kinshasa is poised to become the most populous city in Africa by 2030. Such strong urban growth comes with two main challenges – the need to make cities livable and inclusive by meeting the high demand for social services, infrastructure, education, health, and other basic services; and the need to make cities more productive by addressing the lack of concentrated economic activity. The Urbanization Review of the Democratic Republic of Congo argues that the country is urbanizing at different rates and identifies five regions (East, South, Central, West and Congo Basin) that present specific challenges and opportunities. 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