Publication: Contrasting Future Paths for an Evolving Global Climate Regime
Loading...
Date
2010-01
ISSN
Published
2010-01
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper explores two different conceptions of how an emerging climate regime might evolve to strengthen incentives for more vigorous cooperation in mitigating global climate change. One is the paradigm that has figured most prominently in negotiations to this point: the establishment of targets and timetables for countries to limit their aggregate greenhouse gas emissions. The other approach consists of a variety of loosely coordinated smaller scale agreements, each one of which addresses a different aspect of the challenge, and is enforced in its own way. The primary conclusion is that an agreement of the first type may be more cost-effective, but that a system of agreements of the second type would likely sustain more abatement overall.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Barrett, Scott; Toman, Michael. 2010. Contrasting Future Paths for an Evolving Global Climate Regime. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 5164. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19953 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Geopolitics and the World Trading System(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23)Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication Global Socio-economic Resilience to Natural Disasters(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-22)Most disaster risk assessments use damages to physical assets as their central metric, often neglecting distributional impacts and the coping and recovery capacity of affected people. To address this shortcoming, the concepts of well-being losses and socio-economic resilience—the ability to experience asset losses without a decline in well-being—have been proposed. This paper uses microsimulations to produce a global estimate of well-being losses from, and socio-economic resilience to, natural disasters, covering 132 countries. On average, each $1 in disaster-related asset losses results in well-being losses equivalent to a $2 uniform national drop in consumption, with significant variation within and across countries. The poorest income quintile within each country incurs only 9% of national asset losses but accounts for 33% of well-being losses. Compared to high-income countries, low-income countries experience 67% greater well-being losses per dollar of asset losses and require 56% more time to recover. Socio-economic resilience is uncorrelated with exposure or vulnerability to natural hazards. However, a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with a 0.9 percentage point gain in resilience, but this benefit arises indirectly—such as through higher rate of formal employment, better financial inclusion, and broader social protection coverage—rather than from higher income itself. This paper assess ten policy options and finds that socio-economic and financial interventions (such as insurance and social protection) can effectively complement asset-focused measures (e.g., construction standards) and that interventions targeting low-income populations usually have higher returns in terms of avoided well-being losses per dollar invested.Publication From Patriarchy to Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Legal institutions play an important role in shaping gender equality in economic domains, from inheritance to labor markets. But where do gender equal laws come from? Using cross-country data on social norms and legal equality, this paper investigates the socio-cultural roots of gender inequity in the legal system and its implications for female labor force participation. To identify the impact of social norms, the analysis uses an empirical strategy that exploits pre-modern differences in ancestral patriarchal culture as an instrument for present-day gender norms. The findings show that ancestral patriarchal culture is a strong predictor of contemporary norms, and conservative social norms are associated with more gender inequality in the de jure legal framework, the de facto implementation of laws, and the labor market. The paper presents evidence for a political selection mechanism linking norms to laws: countries with more conservative norms elect political leaders who are more hostile to gender equality, who then pass less progressive legislation. The results highlight the cultural roots and political drivers of legalized gender inequality.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Technical Guide to Actions on Global Warming and Clean Development Mechanism in Sri Lanka(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012)The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of the Government of Sri Lanka is the apex body under which all environmental issues and policy matters are addressed. The Global Affairs Division of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources is tasked with formulating policy and strategic planning and liaise with the international organizations dealing with global environmental issues and is the Designated National Authority (DNA) for matters arising out of the Kyoto Protocol. Under the Kyoto protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) provides for Green House Gas (GHG) mitigation projects that contribute towards sustainable development in developing nations and the net emission reductions can be traded to a developed nation to meet its Kyoto obligations. The report begins with green house effect with GHG emissions and their contributions to global warming. To highlight the gravity of the problem various projections are presented on future climate change, extreme weather events, sea level rise and their impact on developing countries. It describes the global initiative to tackle climate change and specifically details the Kyoto protocol.Publication Beyond Mitigation : Potential Options for Counter-Balancing the Climatic and Environmental Consequences of the Rising Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases(2009-05-01)Global climate change is occurring at an accelerating pace, and the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are forcing climate change continue to increase. Given the present pace of international actions, it seems unlikely that atmospheric composition can be stabilized at a level that will avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with the climate system, as called for in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Complicating the situation, as GHG emissions are reduced, reductions in the offsetting cooling influence of sulfate aerosols will create an additional warming influence, making an early transition to climate stabilization difficult. With significant reductions in emissions (mitigation) likely to take decades, and with the impacts of projected climate change-even with proactive adaptation-likely to be quite severe over the coming decades, additional actions to offset global warming and other impacts have been proposed as important complementary measures. Although a number of possible geoengineering approaches have been proposed, each has costs and side effects that must be balanced against the expected benefits of reduced climate impacts. However, substantial new research is needed before comparison of the relative benefits and risks of intervening is possible. A first step in determining whether geoengineering is likely to be a useful option is the initiation of research on four interventions to limit the increasing serious impacts: limiting ocean acidification by increasing the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and upper ocean; limiting the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones; limiting the warming of the Arctic and associated sea level rise; and sustaining or enhancing the existing sulfate cooling influence. In addition, in depth consideration is needed regarding the governance structure for an international geoengineering decision-making framework in the event that geoengineering becomes essential.Publication State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-06)After five consecutive years of robust growth, the total value of the global carbon market stalled at $142 billion. Suffering from the lack of post-2012 regulatory clarity, the value of the primary Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) market fell by double-digits for the third year in a row, ending lower than it was in 2005, the first year of the Kyoto protocol. The Assigned Amount Unit (AAU) and the United States Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) markets shrank as well. As these segments declined, the dominance of the European Union Allowances (EUAs) market became more pronounced than ever and the share of the carbon market primarily driven by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) rose to 97 percent, dwarfing the remaining segments of the market. The carbon market growth halted at a particularly inopportune time: 2010 proved to be the hottest on record, while emission levels continued their seemingly inexorable rise. In the end, however, the year may be remembered most for the political opportunities that arose, yet were ultimately failed to materialize in the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Republic of Korea. While the international regulatory environment remains uncertain, national and local initiatives have noticeably picked up and may offer the potential to collectively overcome the international regulatory gap. These initiatives signal that, one way or another, solutions that address the climate challenge will emerge.Publication International Trade and Green Growth(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-10)This paper reviews the challenges and opportunities raised by international trade for developing countries considering a green growth strategy. A key concern is the effect of environmental policies on international competitiveness. For production-generated pollution, there is evidence that stringent environmental policy reduces some indicators of competitiveness, but the effect is small in most sectors. However, tightening up environmental standards is unlikely to reduce international competitiveness when pollution is generated by consumption. And where depletion of natural capital is a threat, effective environmental policy is an important component of a policy aimed at developing long-run international competitiveness. The effects of trade on environmental policy, the interaction between trade and technology transfer, and the interaction between trade and transboundary environmental problems are also reviewed. An emerging issue is the potential use of border taxes to curtail carbon leakage. The paper discusses some of the possible responses by developing countries. Some work has indicated that export taxes or voluntary export restraints applied to carbon-intensive production in non-coalition countries may be preferable to a carbon tariff regime. The paper concludes by suggesting some topics for further research.Publication Review of Urban Air Quality in Sub-Saharan Africa Region(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012)In Africa, urban outdoor air pollution is responsible for an estimated 49,000 premature deaths annually with indoor use of solid fuels being responsible for eight times this value, the main burden being borne by Sub Saharan African countries. Air pollution, outdoor and indoor, affects the health and life chances of millions of people in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA)every day. There is a link between air pollution and poverty since poor people are exposed to higher concentrations of air pollutants and tend to suffer disproportionately from the effects of deteriorating air quality (AQ). Children in cities exposed to high concentrations of air pollutants will more often develop respiratory ailments which prevent them from developing and learning well. As a consequence they will suffer in adult life from low levels of qualifications and skills. The implication of poorly educated children is not only a reduction of quality of their lives but also an obstacle for the economic development of a country as a whole. Rapid urbanization means increase in motorization and economic activity which in turn leads to increased air pollution if countermeasures are not taken. In view these linkages addressing urban AQ in SSA is particularly important. Air pollution in Sub Saharan cities appears to be on the rise with respect to many key pollutants. In some cities where monitoring has been performed levels of air pollution exceed World Health Organization recommended guidelines. The main cause of urban air pollution is the use of fossil fuels in transport, power generation, industry and domestic sectors. In addition, the burning of firewood, agricultural and animal waste also contributes to pollution levels. Pollutant emissions have direct and indirect effects with a wide range of impacts on human health, ecosystems, agriculture and materials. There is a growing need to determine the state of urban AQ and the challenges posed to solve it and identify the most effective measures to protect human health and the environment. Learning from experience and successes in urban AQ management (AQM) from other countries can assists in the formulation and implementation of strategies to achieve better AQ in Sub Saharan Africa. This report compiles the information provided by the 25countries in a harmonized way and gives an in-depth review of AQ in SSA with AQ profile of each country, presenting the country's main current urban AQ issues, emissions standards, ongoing projects, lessons learned from good/bad practices. It was attempted to compile this information also for additional SSA countries from available publications and internet sources.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Governance Matters IV : Governance Indicators for 1996-2004(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-06)The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.Publication Government Matters III : Governance Indicators for 1996-2002(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-08)The authors present estimates of six dimensions of governance covering 199 countries and territories for four time periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. These indicators are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 25 separate data sources constructed by 18 different organizations. The authors assign these individual measures of governance to categories capturing key dimensions of governance and use an unobserved components model to construct six aggregate governance indicators in each of the four periods. They present the point estimates of the dimensions of governance as well as the margins of errors for each country for the four periods. The governance indicators reported here are an update and expansion of previous research work on indicators initiated in 1998 (Kaufmann, Kraay, and Zoido-Lobat 1999a,b and 2002). The authors also address various methodological issues, including the interpretation and use of the data given the estimated margins of errors.Publication Governance Matters VIII : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996–2008(2009-06-01)This paper reports on the 2009 update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2008: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. These aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 33 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. They find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org.Publication Design Thinking for Social Innovation(2010-07)Designers have traditionally focused on enchancing the look and functionality of products.Publication Measuring Financial Inclusion : The Global Findex Database(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04)This paper provides the first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, a new set of indicators that measure how adults in 148 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The data show that 50 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a formal financial institution, though account penetration varies widely across regions, income groups and individual characteristics. In addition, 22 percent of adults report having saved at a formal financial institution in the past 12 months, and 9 percent report having taken out a new loan from a bank, credit union or microfinance institution in the past year. Although half of adults around the world remain unbanked, at least 35 percent of them report barriers to account use that might be addressed by public policy. Among the most commonly reported barriers are high cost, physical distance, and lack of proper documentation, though there are significant differences across regions and individual characteristics.