Publication:
Gulf Economic Update, December 2024: Navigating the Water Challenge in the GCC - Paths to Sustainable Solutions

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (11.29 MB)
350 downloads
English Text (539.21 KB)
50 downloads
Date
2024-12-09
ISSN
Published
2024-12-09
Author(s)
Chattha, Muhammad Khudadad
Youssef, Hoda
Ftomova, Olena
Maseeh, Ashwaq Natiq
Wang, Xinyue
Naeher, Dominik
Ghosheh, Adnan
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Gulf Economic Update (GEU) is the product of the Economic Policy unit for Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank Group. It provides an update on key economic developments and policies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the past six months, places them in a longer-term and global context and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for the GCC. Its coverage ranges from the macroeconomy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in the GCC.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Chattha, Muhammad Khudadad; Youssef, Hoda; Ftomova, Olena; Maseeh, Ashwaq Natiq; Wang, Xinyue; Bogetić, Željko; Naeher, Dominik; Borja-Vega, Christian; Ghosheh, Adnan. 2024. Gulf Economic Update, December 2024: Navigating the Water Challenge in the GCC - Paths to Sustainable Solutions. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42515 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Gulf Economic Update, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-20) Chattha, Muhammad Khudadad; Maseeh, Ashwaq Natiq; Luan, Zhao; Thelejane, Morakane; Ftomova, Olena; Youssef, Hoda; Kawalec, Tobias; Wang, Xinyue; Yacine, Ouahioune; Bogetić, Željko
    This special focus chapter analyzes the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fostering economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. In doing so, the principal focus of the chapter is on fiscal multipliers, which measure the effect of changes in government spending or revenue on the country’s output (GDP). In simple terms, they quantify how much economic activity is generated by each dollar of fiscal policy action. The need to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy is especially relevant for GCC countries given their intensified economic diversification efforts in recent years. Globally, fiscal policy has been playing a growing role, with public expenditure as a share of GDP growing in more than 70 percent of all countries since the Global Financial Crisis. In the GCC, the share of fiscal expenditure in non-hydrocarbon GDP ranges between 36 percent and 84 percent. As public spending is often undertaken through large-scale public investments, this calls for a better understanding of the returns on GDP from those investments, the effectiveness of capital allocation, and whether fiscal policies are well designed to maximize employment and job creation, among other objectives. On the revenue side, most of the income is related to sales of hydrocarbon products, as hydrocarbon sales revenue makes up between 40 and 90 percent of overall government revenues in 2023. The main policy takeaway is that fiscal policy is broadly effective at stabilizing cyclical fluctuations of (non-hydrocarbon) output, especially during times of economic dearth. While fiscal multipliers in the GCC appear to be positive across the board, they are generally weak and less than one, in line with the estimates in the literature for a multitude of other countries. Policymakers should therefore not expect multiplying effects in response to stabilizing fiscal policy measures, which occur for fiscal multipliers that are larger than one. This does not, however, imply a total absence of fiscal policy impact on output. As the estimated multipliers are significantly larger during recessions, the findings make a robust case for adopting countercyclical fiscal policy. Such countercyclical policy should aim at an expansion of demand through fiscal stimulus only during demand-driven downturns.
  • Publication
    Is Escaping the Fiscal Pro-Cyclicality Trap Possible? Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-28) Bogetić, Željko; Naeher, Dominik
    This paper analyzes fiscal policy cyclicality, with a specific focus on the Middle East and North Africa region, which is known for its significant output volatility. The paper provides new and more granular evidence on the direction, intensity, and specific fiscal sources of cyclicality. Based on annual data covering 184 countries from 2000 to 2022, the findings suggest that there are important differences in the assessment of countercyclical fiscal policy achievements among different fiscal policy variables, across world regions, and also within the Middle East and North Africa region. While the global associations between fiscal cyclicality and income levels have remained relatively stable, countries in the Middle East and North Africa have exhibited diverse performances, some transitioning toward countercyclicality and others moving away from it. The paper also identifies several countries in the Middle East and North Africa that have successfully shifted from procyclical to countercyclical fiscal policy, breaking free from the “fiscal pro-cyclicality trap.” To understand more specific fiscal sources of cyclicality, the paper examines subcomponents of revenues and expenditure. It shows that nontax revenues exhibit a greater degree of procyclicality than tax revenues, and subsidy expenditures tend to be less countercyclical than other fiscal expenditures. This has policy implications and adds a dimension of assessment to subsidies that is not addressed in the literature: subsidies, being less countercyclical than other expenditures in the Middle East and North Africa, do not contribute to macroeconomic stability and long-term growth through this channel, independent of their adverse efficiency, distributional, and fiscal space effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings, aimed at improving countercyclicality in fiscal policy.
  • Publication
    Can Intense Exposure to Hand-Washing and Hygiene Information Campaigns Affect Children's Socio-Emotional Skills?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11) Briceno, Bertha; Borja-Vega, Christian; Garcia, Vicente
    Hygiene information and practices play a critical role in preventing diseases, particularly among children. Hygiene behaviors practiced in the household have been linked to development outcomes such as socio-emotional skills. This paper exploits data from impact evaluation surveys of a hygiene information campaign conducted in Senegal, where the randomized design suffered from contamination between comparison groups. The variations in exposure and intensity to hygiene information campaigns captured in the surveys were used to understand contamination biases. Such variations were interacted with the presence of household communication assets to explore potential effects on children’s socio-emotional scores. In the presence of contamination biases, the study exploited the longitudinal sample of children in the surveys to reduce time-dependent biases. For robustness, statistical matching was applied between the impact evaluation surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2008 and 2011. Socio-emotional outcomes were the imputed into Demographic and Health surveys to expand sample sizes. By applying matching techniques and imputing outcomes into a larger sample, impacts were non-negligible. Double-difference estimates showed that children’s socio-emotional scores were higher when intervention status was interacted with the presence of communication assets within households. Without the presence of communication assets in the households the impacts were close to zero. Evaluating the effect of hygiene campaigns on children’s socio-emotional skills is challenging because of the biases from contamination that exist when information flows between comparison groups. Targeted hygiene information to the poorest households is relevant for reducing risks of recurrent infections and enables better conditions for socio-emotional development of children.
  • Publication
    Water for Shared Prosperity
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-21) Zhang, Fan; Borja-Vega, Christian
    In 1997, thousands of people gathered in Marrakesh, Morocco, for the first World Water Forum to address an urgent problem: the global water crisis. The meeting resulted in the Marrakech Declaration, a pledge that called on the World Water Council to develop a “World Water Vision” for the 21st century. In 2024, thousands are convening in Bali, Indonesia, for the 10th World Water Forum. Indonesia and Morocco are worlds apart in many ways. As the world’s largest archipelago, Indonesia is surrounded by water. On the other hand, Morocco is partly occupied by the Sahara, the world’s largest hot desert. However, one reality these (and many other) countries share is water stress. The 10th World Water Forum is an invitation to consider the collective water issues in countries as different as Indonesia and Morocco and to draw parallels among them. But it is also about finding solutions This report makes three major contributions. It (1) provides a conceptual framework to illustrate the relationship between water and shared prosperity; (2) presents new empirical evidence on the drivers, extent and costs of inequalities in water access, as well as disparities in the impacts of climate-related water shocks; and (3) identifies policy responses to improve water access, strengthen climate resilience, and promote shared prosperity on a livable planet.
  • Publication
    Doing More with Less
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-08-28) Thibert, Michael; Andres, Luis A.; Lombana Cordoba, Camilo; Danilenko, Alexander V.; Joseph, George; Borja-Vega, Christian
    This report explores how scarce public resources can be used most effectively to achieve universal delivery of water supply and sanitation services. It analyzes the prevalence and performance of subsidies in the sector, then guide policymakers on improving subsidy design and implementation to improve their efficacy and efficiency in attaining their objectives.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Bank Annual Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25) World Bank
    This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
  • Publication
    The Business of the State
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-28) World Bank
    The state, as an owner of businesses, competes and collaborates with the private sector at the firm level, market level, and economywide, and this involvement has profound implications for investment and growth. Governments actively participate in commercial markets in different forms, from controlling the production of goods and services to investing in firms as a minority shareholder. The impact of state participation on an economy’s growth depends on the type of public-private ownership, the types of markets, and the importance of those markets in the economy. The impact also depends on how policies and institutions regulate both the businesses with state ownership and the markets in which they are active. The Business of the State uses new evidence covering 91 countries from the World Bank’s Global Businesses of the State database to highlight the distinction between businesses of the state and traditionally understood state-owned enterprises. The report analyzes how different ownership arrangements across sectors and institutional settings affect private investment, productivity, technology adoption, and job creation. It also analyzes how these government arrangements influence the ability of economies to respond to shocks, from pandemics to climate change. The report proposes a clear analytical framework for understanding the consequences of relying on businesses of the state to attain specific development goals.
  • Publication
    The Journey Ahead
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31) Bossavie, Laurent; Garrote Sánchez, Daniel; Makovec, Mattia
    The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.