Publication:
Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty

dc.contributor.authorRay, Patrick A.
dc.contributor.authorWi, Sungwook
dc.contributor.authorYang, Yi-Chen E.
dc.contributor.authorKarki, Pravin
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, Luis E.
dc.contributor.authorRodriguez, Diego J.
dc.contributor.authorBrown, Casey M.
dc.date.accessioned2018-03-08T21:16:10Z
dc.date.available2018-03-08T21:16:10Z
dc.date.issued2018-01
dc.description.abstractInvestors, developers, policy makers and engineers are rightly concerned about the potential effects of climate change on the future performance of hydropower investments. Hydroelectricity offers potentially low greenhouse-gas emission, renewable energy and reliable energy storage. However, hydroelectricity developments are large, complicated projects and possibly critically vulnerable to changes in climate and other assumptions related to future uncertainties. This paper presents a general assessment approach for evaluating the resilience of hydroelectricity projects to uncertainty in climate and other risk factors (e.g., financial, natural hazard). The process uses a decision analytic framework based on a decision scaling approach, which combines scenario neutral analysis and vulnerability-specific probability assessment. The technical evaluation process involves identification of project objectives, specification of uncertain factors, multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis, and data mining to identify vulnerability-specific scenarios and vulnerability-specific estimations of risk. The process is demonstrated with an application to a proposed hydropower facility on the Arun River in Nepal. The findings of the case study illustrate an example in which climate change is not the critical future uncertainty, and consequently highlight the importance of considering multiple uncertainties in combination.en
dc.identifier.citationGlobal Environment Change
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/29445
dc.identifier.issn0959-3780
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/29445
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
dc.subjectRESILIENCE
dc.subjectWATER RESOURCES
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER
dc.subjectHIMALAYAS
dc.subjectRISK ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectSTAKEHOLDER INTERESTS
dc.titleMultidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertaintyen
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.typeArticle de journalfr
dc.typeArtículo de revistaes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016307002 Journal website (version of record)en
okr.crossref.titleMultidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty
okr.date.disclosure2020-12-22
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Journal Article
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.externalcontentExternal Content
okr.identifier.doi10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.013
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/29445
okr.identifier.report125346
okr.journal.nbpages168-81
okr.language.supporteden
okr.peerreviewAcademic Peer Review
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryNepal
okr.topicEnergy::Energy and Environment
okr.topicEnergy::Hydro Power
okr.topicEnvironment::Adaptation to Climate Change
okr.topicEnvironment::Environment and Energy Efficiency
okr.topicEnvironment::Water Resources Management
okr.unitGWA07 - Water West Africa region
okr.volume48
relation.isAuthorOfPublication564a47e8-69e2-53f6-83ea-463ff11fc638
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery564a47e8-69e2-53f6-83ea-463ff11fc638
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