Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.013

Publication:
Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty

dc.contributor.author	Ray, Patrick A.
dc.contributor.author	Wi, Sungwook
dc.contributor.author	Yang, Yi-Chen E.
dc.contributor.author	Karki, Pravin
dc.contributor.author	Garcia, Luis E.
dc.contributor.author	Rodriguez, Diego J.
dc.contributor.author	Brown, Casey M.
dc.date.accessioned	2018-03-08T21:16:10Z
dc.date.available	2018-03-08T21:16:10Z
dc.date.issued	2018-01
dc.description.abstract	Investors, developers, policy makers and engineers are rightly concerned about the potential effects of climate change on the future performance of hydropower investments. Hydroelectricity offers potentially low greenhouse-gas emission, renewable energy and reliable energy storage. However, hydroelectricity developments are large, complicated projects and possibly critically vulnerable to changes in climate and other assumptions related to future uncertainties. This paper presents a general assessment approach for evaluating the resilience of hydroelectricity projects to uncertainty in climate and other risk factors (e.g., financial, natural hazard). The process uses a decision analytic framework based on a decision scaling approach, which combines scenario neutral analysis and vulnerability-specific probability assessment. The technical evaluation process involves identification of project objectives, specification of uncertain factors, multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis, and data mining to identify vulnerability-specific scenarios and vulnerability-specific estimations of risk. The process is demonstrated with an application to a proposed hydropower facility on the Arun River in Nepal. The findings of the case study illustrate an example in which climate change is not the critical future uncertainty, and consequently highlight the importance of considering multiple uncertainties in combination.	en
dc.identifier.citation	Global Environment Change
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/29445
dc.identifier.issn	0959-3780
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/29445
dc.publisher	Elsevier
dc.rights	CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
dc.subject	CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
dc.subject	RESILIENCE
dc.subject	WATER RESOURCES
dc.subject	HYDROPOWER
dc.subject	HIMALAYAS
dc.subject	RISK ASSESSMENT
dc.subject	STAKEHOLDER INTERESTS
dc.title	Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty	en
dc.type	Journal Article	en
dc.type	Article de journal	fr
dc.type	Artículo de revista	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.associatedcontent	https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016307002 Journal website (version of record)	en
okr.crossref.title	Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty
okr.date.disclosure	2020-12-22
okr.doctype	Publications & Research::Journal Article
okr.doctype	Publications & Research
okr.externalcontent	External Content
okr.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.013
okr.identifier.doi	10.1596/29445
okr.identifier.report	125346
okr.journal.nbpages	168-81
okr.language.supported	en
okr.peerreview	Academic Peer Review
okr.region.administrative	South Asia
okr.region.country	Nepal
okr.topic	Energy::Energy and Environment
okr.topic	Energy::Hydro Power
okr.topic	Environment::Adaptation to Climate Change
okr.topic	Environment::Environment and Energy Efficiency
okr.topic	Environment::Water Resources Management
okr.unit	GWA07 - Water West Africa region
okr.volume	48
relation.isAuthorOfPublication	564a47e8-69e2-53f6-83ea-463ff11fc638
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery	564a47e8-69e2-53f6-83ea-463ff11fc638