Publication: The Determinants of Child Mortality Reduction in the Middle East and North Africa
Loading...
Files in English
234 downloads
Date
2016-09-21
ISSN
1793-8120
Published
2016-09-21
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Although child mortality rates have declined all across the developing world over the past 40 years, they have fallen the most in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We investigate the causes of this through an econometric model that differs from previous studies in using the change in child mortality, rather than its level, as the dependent variable. We show that the process of child mortality decline has been characterized by convergence, whereby countries with higher levels of initial child mortality have experienced faster declines than those with lower levels. In addition, we find that public spending on health, growth rates of income and levels of caloric adequacy are robust determinants of the change in child mortality over time. Neither initial mortality status nor caloric adequacy is likely to remain as important for the MENA region in the future as they have been in the past. The region has been benefitting less and less from the convergence momentum conferred by high initial child mortality as its mortality levels have declined over time and this will continue into the future. With regard to caloric adequacy, the region is unlikely to experience significant improvements in the future as it has already achieved a high level of food sufficiency. Accordingly, most countries in the region must look to achieving more rapid income growth and higher rates of appropriately targeted public spending on health in order to achieve further child mortality reductions in the future.
Link to Data Set
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Citations
- Cited 6 times in Scopus (view citations)
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Reduction of Child Mortality in the Middle East and North Africa : A Success Story(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-09)Although child mortality rates have declined all across the developing world over the past 40 years, they have declined the most in the Middle East and North Africa region. This paper documents this remarkable experience and shows that it is broad based in the sense that all countries in the Middle East and North Africa experienced significant declines in child mortality over this period and each country did better than most of its comparators. In looking for the sources of the region s performance edge, the paper confirms the importance of such determinants of child mortality as income growth, education stock, public spending on health, urbanization, and food sufficiency. In addition, the paper establishes that the initial level of mortality has a substantial influence on the pace of subsequent child mortality decline. Of these factors, food sufficiency status is found to contribute to the region s performance edge over all developing regions, while the other factors are found to matter to varying degrees in selected pairwise regional comparisons.Publication Education Attainment in the Middle East and North Africa : Success at a Cost(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-12)This paper reviews the experience of the Middle East and North Africa region in education attainment over the past four decades (1970-2010). It documents the following main findings: (a) all countries in the region experienced significant improvements in educational attainment over this period; (b) most countries in the region did better in this regard than comparators that had roughly the same education stocks in 1970; (c) collectively, the region achieved a greater percentage increase in education than other regions; (d) the region's better performance was in part because of higher rates of public spending on education, better food sufficiency status, and a lower initial stock of education in 1970 in comparison with most other developing country regions; and (e) the region had among the lowest payoffs to public spending in terms of increments in education stock; the impressive advance in education was achieved at high cost.Publication Sustaining Gains in Poverty Reduction and Human Development in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006)This book reviews the experience of the Middle East and North Africa region with poverty and human development since the mid-1980s. It finds that poverty rates did not decline by much during this period while health and education indicators improved substantially. The stagnation of poverty rates is ascribed to the stagnation of the region's economies during this period while the improvement in human indicators is likely due to several factors including improvement in the delivery of public health and education services.Publication Why Do Some Oil-Rich Countries Perform Better Than Others?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05)Progress in child mortality reduction and education attainment varies widely among oil-rich countries. This paper investigates the causes of this variation using an empirical model that departs from the available literature in allowing for explicit measurement of the impact of initial levels of child mortality and education attainment. The results show that the following four variables are statistically significant and robust across various specifications: public spending on health and education, economic growth rates, caloric sufficiency, and initial levels of child mortality and education attainment. Further analysis was conducted to determine the economic significance of these factors by examining the contribution of each to the fitted growth rates (as a deviation from the sample mean) of child mortality and secondary school enrollment for 14 oil-rich developing countries. The analysis reveals some interesting patterns. First, initial conditions dominate the results for education attainment: the initial level of secondary school enrollment in 1980 is the dominant factor in explaining subsequent improvements in 10 of the 14 oil-rich developing countries for which calculations could be performed. Second, policy factors worked in different ways in different countries. A high degree of caloric sufficiency enabled countries in the Middle East and North Africa to reduce child mortality faster, while low levels of caloric sufficiency prevented African oil-rich countries, such as Angola and the Republic of Congo, from making progress. Third, levels of public spending were not economically critical for gains in school enrollment, although they were important in a few country cases for improvements in child mortality rates.Publication Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2018(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-04-16)After a sharp fall in 2017, economic growth in MENA is projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2018, thanks to the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies and reforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede. The outlook for MENA remains positive, and the growth rebound is expected to gain momentum over the next two years, exceeding 3 percent in 2020. While stabilization policies have helped economies adjust in recent years, .a second phase of reforms is needed should be transformative if the region is to reach its potential and create jobs for hundred million young people who will enter the labor market in coming decades. In this report, we explore the role that public-private partnerships can play. not only in providing an alternative source of financing but in helping change the role of the state from the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector activity. Studies have shown that the gap between MENA economies and fast-growing ones is the performance of the services sector. The disruptive technology offers new opportunities for boosting private-sector-led growth through enhancement of high-tech jobs in the services sector. The report argues that combining the region's fast-growing pool of university graduates and a heavy penetration of social media and smartphone, could serve as the foundation for a digital sector that could create much-needed private sector jobs for the youth over the next decade.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication South Asia Development Update, April 2024: Jobs for Resilience(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-02)South Asia is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region over the next two years. This is largely thanks to robust growth in India, but growth is also expected to pick up in most other South Asian economies. However, growth in the near-term is more reliant on the public sector than elsewhere, whereas private investment, in particular, continues to be weak. Efforts to rein in elevated debt, borrowing costs, and fiscal deficits may eventually weigh on growth and limit governments' ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate shocks. Yet, the provision of public goods is among the most effective strategies for climate adaptation. This is especially the case for households and farms, which tend to rely on shifting their efforts to non-agricultural jobs. These strategies are less effective forms of climate adaptation, in part because opportunities to move out of agriculture are limited by the region’s below-average employment ratios in the non-agricultural sector and for women. Because employment growth is falling short of working-age population growth, the region fails to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. Vibrant, competitive firms are key to unlocking the demographic dividend, robust private investment, and workers’ ability to move out of agriculture. A range of policies could spur firm growth, including improved business climates and institutions, the removal of financial sector restrictions, and greater openness to trade and capital flows.Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.