Publication:
Kenya Economic Update, June 2011, Edition No. 4: Turning the Tide in Turbulent Times

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (4.18 MB)
289 downloads
English Text (189.27 KB)
54 downloads
Date
2011-06
ISSN
Published
2011-06
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Over the last decade, Kenya's society and economy have changed fundamentally and these deep trends will continue. Rapid population growth and urbanization will create many new challenges which need to be managed well to support Kenya's economic take-off in the medium-term. This fourth edition of the Kenya economic update argues that Kenya can turn the tide in turbulent times and make the most of the ongoing structural shifts. In 2011, Kenya will need to address short-term domestic and international shocks, including higher inflation, pressures on the exchange rate and, most importantly, a volatile political environment. The government will need to navigate through these shocks successfully and to continue with its economic reform program to achieve higher growth. At the same time, the government will be making major strategic decisions in Kenya's decentralization architecture which will shape the medium-term development prospects of the country. Economic success is possible, as the 5.6 percent growth in 2010 has shown. If growth will accelerate to an average of 6 percent this decade, Kenya will achieve middle income country status by 2019.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2011. Kenya Economic Update, June 2011, Edition No. 4: Turning the Tide in Turbulent Times. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27254 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Turning the Tide in Turbulent Times : Making the Most of Kenya's Demographic Change and Rapid Urbanization
    (Washington, DC, 2011-06) World Bank
    Kenya will need to navigate through another economic storm in 2011. This will reduce growth to a projected 4.8 percent, which is still substantially higher than the average of the last decade. The decade started on a bullish note for Kenya. In 2010, growth was higher than expected at 5.6 percent. If growth accelerated to 6 percent, Kenya could reach Middle Income Country status by 2019. Kenya is at the threshold of a major demographic transition and is urbanizing rapidly. Each year, Kenya will continue to grow by more than one million people, who will live longer, be better educated, and increasingly live in cities. This social and economic transformation needs to be managed well to catalyze its development impact. This report recommends that in order for Kenya to continue to prosper in 2011 it will need to maintain macroeconomic stability, and contain inflation and further increases in debt. This entails tighter monetary policies and a reduction of the fiscal deficit. If there is a need for additional expenditures in response to external shocks, reallocations seem to be the most appropriate response. Kenya can leverage its auspicious location and its role as a hub for the larger East African region by upgrading its infrastructure, creating a good business environment, and continuing with region integration. This would also position Kenya globally and generate additional exports in services and manufacturing. The report concludes that the best way to start making Kenya more competitive is to strengthen its coastal hub and to modernize the port of Mombasa.
  • Publication
    India Development Update, October 2014
    (Washington, DC, 2014-10) World Bank Group
    Growth rebounded significantly due to strong industrial recovery aided by growth in investment and exports. Capital flows are back, signaling growing investor confidence, as inflation has moderated from double digits, exchange rate has stabilized, and financial sector stress has plateaued. Monetary policy continuity has been maintained and there has been some progress on fiscal consolidation. With the economy still below potential and reform momentum picking up, growth is expected to strengthen over the medium-term. Inflation is expected to decline with monetary policy switching to inflation targeting while the current account deficit is expected to widen somewhat as import demand and capital inflows rise. Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue through stronger revenue mobilization. Downside domestic risks can be offset through accelerated structural reforms.
  • Publication
    Madagascar : Back to the Future on the Road to Sustained and Balanced Growth, Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 2, Annexes
    (Washington, DC, 2008-12) World Bank
    The objective of this study is to accompany Malagasy authorities in their transition towards economic emergence. If the contribution of foreign capital and the abundance of natural resources should help the Malagasy economy escape from the poverty trap by increasing its domestic savings and investment capacities, as well as its technological capacities. International experience reminds us that this transition is far from being automatic. Indeed, there are more examples of countries that have failed than of those who have succeeded. The successes of Chile, Tunisia, Malaysia, Mauritius, and Botswana can inspire the Malagasy policy makers while showing them which economic policy choices become imperative. This study is divided into four parts. The first part begins with an analysis of Madagascar's economic performance, trying to recall its fragility in spite of the good results recorded over these last few years. This fragility will be highlighted through the relatively narrow basis of the economic growth that has greatly relied on foreign capital inflows, putting the need to follow an adequate foreign exchange management policy at the center of the agenda and, thus, minimize its possible negative impact on exports. The second part will focus on the issue of private sector promotion. Recent diagnoses of Madagascar's economy and the strategy adopted by Malagasy authorities (with the support of its development partners) have shown that to be sustained and shared out over time, economic growth will have to rely on a dynamic and competitive private sector. The third part is dedicated to sharing the fruits of economic growth by giving a special emphasis to the distribution of the benefits related to the large mining and tourism investment projects within the population. These large projects represent a unique opportunity for Madagascar's development but also undoubtedly a danger if they do not allow the emergence of spillover effects among the local businesses and labor force. Finally, the fourth and final part proposes an agenda of economic reforms. Ambition is not to formulate a patchy list of proposals, but rather to propose a series of options that will help address the issues of competitiveness and shared growth that are central to the success of the current strategy followed by the Malagasy authorities.
  • Publication
    Madagascar : Back to the Future on the Road to Sustained and Balanced Growth, Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1, Main Report
    (Washington, DC, 2008-12) World Bank
    The objective of this study is to accompany Malagasy authorities in their transition towards economic emergence. If the contribution of foreign capital and the abundance of natural resources should help the Malagasy economy escape from the poverty trap by increasing its domestic savings and investment capacities, as well as its technological capacities. International experience reminds us that this transition is far from being automatic. Indeed, there are more examples of countries that have failed than of those who have succeeded. The successes of Chile, Tunisia, Malaysia, Mauritius, and Botswana can inspire the Malagasy policy makers while showing them which economic policy choices become imperative. This study is divided into four parts. The first part begins with an analysis of Madagascar's economic performance, trying to recall its fragility in spite of the good results recorded over these last few years. This fragility will be highlighted through the relatively narrow basis of the economic growth that has greatly relied on foreign capital inflows, putting the need to follow an adequate foreign exchange management policy at the center of the agenda and, thus, minimize its possible negative impact on exports. The second part will focus on the issue of private sector promotion. Recent diagnoses of Madagascar's economy and the strategy adopted by Malagasy authorities (with the support of its development partners) have shown that to be sustained and shared out over time, economic growth will have to rely on a dynamic and competitive private sector. The third part is dedicated to sharing the fruits of economic growth by giving a special emphasis to the distribution of the benefits related to the large mining and tourism investment projects within the population. These large projects represent a unique opportunity for Madagascar's development but also undoubtedly a danger if they do not allow the emergence of spillover effects among the local businesses and labor force. Finally, the fourth and final part proposes an agenda of economic reforms. Ambition is not to formulate a patchy list of proposals, but rather to propose a series of options that will help address the issues of competitiveness and shared growth that are central to the success of the current strategy followed by the Malagasy authorities.
  • Publication
    Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery : Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 1. Summary and Recommendations
    (Washington, DC, 2007-09) World Bank
    In 2006 most of the people of Uganda, with the notable exception of those in the conflict-blighted Northern Region, enjoy a better quality of life and brighter opportunities in a stable and growing economy. Uganda's economy has bounced back beyond what could be regarded as recovery, with real incomes per person now exceeding the levels reached at Independence in 1962. The report structure is as follows: volume one synthesizes the conclusions from analysis in Volume two. In Chapter 1 of Volume two, emphasis is placed on understanding what drove past growth at macro and sector levels, and in particular, on how Uganda's firms and farms have evolved. Chapter 2 continues the retrospective of past growth in agriculture, the most important sector of the economy. The report provides a comprehensive review of growth trends in agriculture, using several data sources. The chapter provides fresh insights on recent trends in poverty and inequality. Chapter 3 presents growth diagnosis and it identifies short-term actions to remove emerging constraints to present and near-term future growth. Chapter 4 models alternative future growth paths and the impact o f alternative public investments on growth using a SAM-based CGE model. The analysis reveals there is little to be gained from 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' for example fixing infrastructure by reducing education financing. Chapters 6 and 7 return to the short-term priorities to remove binding constraints to growth, and put meat on the actions identified in Chapter 3 as being required in the financial sector (Chapter 6) and in infrastructure (Chapter 7). Finally, Chapter 8 ends by assessing the scope for an externally financed scale up of infrastructure.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2011
    (World Bank, 2011) World Bank
    The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.
  • Publication
    The Journey Ahead
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31) Bossavie, Laurent; Garrote Sánchez, Daniel; Makovec, Mattia
    The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.
  • Publication
    Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17) Izvorski, Ivailo; Kasyanenko, Sergiy; Lokshin, Michael M.; Torre, Iván
    Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.