Publication: A Changing China : Implications for Developing Countries
Date
2013-05
ISSN
Published
2013-05
Author(s)
Schellekens, Philip
Abstract
Three decades of rapid growth and
structural change have transformed China into an
upper-middle-income country and global economic powerhouse.
China's transformations over this period wielded
increasing influence over the development path of other
countries, either directly through bilateral trade and
financial flows or indirectly through growth spillovers and
terms of trade effects. Looking ahead, as China embarks on a
new phase in its development journey, a phase characterized
by slower but higher-quality growth, the economic landscape
facing the developing world is expected to be redefined yet
again. As China changes, so will its interactions with the
outside world. China is expected to remain both a market and
a competitor, but its changes are likely to lead to new
opportunities for many and new challenges for some. Key
questions in this respect are: (i) how will the level and
composition of China's import demand evolve as its
economy slows and rebalances; (ii) to what extent will the
presumed out-migration of labor-intensive manufacturing
materialize and create new opportunities elsewhere; and
(iii) how quickly will China move up the value chain and
redefine its competitive advantage in the global
marketplace? How these uncertain long-term developments
affect individual countries will depend on differences in
total supply chain costs, resource availability, and
innovation capability. As in the past, China's
transformations are expected to put formidable pressure on
countries to adapt and reform, requiring both political will
and entrepreneurial capacity, in a collective race where
success will be measured against a rapidly moving frontier.
Citation
“Schellekens, Philip. 2013. A Changing China : Implications for Developing Countries. Economic Premise;No. 114. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16115 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”