Publication: Who Benefits from Export-Led Growth? Evidence from Madagascar's Textile and Apparel Industry
Abstract
Fuelled by low labour costs and preferential trade agreements, exports of textile products originating from Sub-Saharan countries have grown dramatically in the last decades. This paper analyses some of the implications that export growth in the textile and apparel sector have for social welfare and poverty reduction in Madagascar. The paper proposes a simulation exercise utilising household level data and a methodology that combines the wage premium literature with matching methods. The results point to a large variation in the distribution of the benefits from export growth, with skilled workers and urban areas benefiting most. From a gender perspective, women are found to benefit substantially less than men. Although total welfare effects are significant, the benefits are largely reaped by non-poor households. From a poverty perspective, export-led growth in the textile and apparel sector is expected to have only a small effect on overall poverty.
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Publication Export Led Growth, Pro-Poor or Not? Evidence from Madagascar's Textile and Apparel Industry(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-02)Madagascar's textile and apparel industry has been among the fastest growing in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fueled by low labor costs, a fairly productive labor force, and preferential access to industrial countries, Madagascar's exports of textile and apparel products grew from about US$45 million in 1990 to almost half a billion in 2001. The impact of this export surge has been large in terms of employment and wages, but less so in terms of poverty reduction. To address the concern of whether the poor benefit and to what extent, the author follows a new approach to identify the beneficiaries of globalization and to quantify the benefits at the household level, so as to understand which segments of the population benefit most and which, if any, are marginalized. The analysis focuses on the labor market channel which has been recognized as the main transmission between economic growth and poverty. The methodology uses household level data and combines the wage premium literature with matching methods. The results point to a strong variation in the distribution of the benefits from export growth with skilled workers and urban areas benefiting most. From a poverty perspective, export-led growth in the textile and apparel sector has only a small effect on overall poverty. This study points to two reasons for this. First, a large majority of the poor are unable to enjoy the new employment opportunities, given their lack of skills sought by the expanding textile and apparel export industry. Second, most of the poor reside in rural areas where the employment effect is small. The results indicate that the effects of an increase in exports of textiles for poverty reduction are felt only in urban areas, mostly through job creation. Some of the urban poor are good candidates for finding employment in the expanding sector. But the urban poor are likely to find employment only in unskilled jobs. Given that unskilled wages are kept low by a large reserve labor sector, the gains are limited, and the overall impact on poverty is small. More generally, the results of this study suggest that two factors are required if export-led economic growth is to significantly reduce poverty. First, growth and job creation must not be restricted to a few geographic areas but need to reach areas where the majority of the poor live. Second, poor people must be assisted in obtaining the skills sought by expanding industries.Publication Finding Missing Markets (and a Disturbing Epilogue) : Evidence from an Export Crop Adoption and Marketing Intervention in Kenya(2009)Farmers may grow crops for local consumption despite more profitable export options. DrumNet, a Kenyan NGO that helps small farmers adopt and market export crops, conducted a randomized trial to evaluate its impact. DrumNet services increased production of export crops and lowered marketing costs, leading to a 32% income gain for new adopters. The services collapsed one year later when the exporter stopped buying from DrumNet because farmers could not meet new EU production requirements. Farmers sold to other middlemen and defaulted on their loans from DrumNet. Such experiences may explain why farmers are less likely to adopt export crops.Publication Who Benefits and How Much? How Gender Affects Welfare Impacts of a Booming Textile Industry(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-04)Exports of textile products originating from Sub-Saharan African countries have grown dramatically in the past decade. Recent trade initiatives, such as the "African Growth Opportunity Act" and "Everything but Arms," along with low labor costs and improved integration into world markets, are giving further stimulus to the growth of the textile and apparel industry in Sub-Saharan African countries. Nicita and Razzaz explore the extent to which the poor are also beneficiaries of the export-led growth of particular economic sectors, or whether the poor are unable to reap any of the benefits and therefore fall further behind. They use a methodology that combines the matching methods literature (to identify individuals more likely to fill the new jobs of the expanding sector) with the industry wage premium literature (to quantify the gains of the individuals that move into the expanding sector). The results indicate that a sustained export-driven growth in Madagascar's textile and apparel industry will lead to a substantial increase in the income of poor households, with a consequent decrease in poverty. In a scenario simulating five years of expansion of the textile sector, the authors estimate that more than one million individuals will directly or indirectly receive some benefit. On average, households in which one or more members work in the textile sector get an increase in purchasing power of about 24 percent or US$14 a month. The results further show that benefits are unevenly distributed across male and female workers. Households in which a male member is employed in the textile and apparel industry increase their purchasing power by 36 percent or US$24.5 a month, compared with 22 percent or US$12.2 a month in the case of a female worker.Publication Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions(2008)This paper provides a systematic estimation of import demand elasticities for a broad group of countries at a very disaggregated level of product detail. We use a semiflexible translog GDP function approach to formally derive import demands and their elasticities, which are estimated with data on prices and endowments. Within a theoretically consistent framework, we use the estimated elasticities to construct Feenstra's (1995) simplification of Anderson and Neary's trade restrictiveness index (TRI). The difference between TRIs and import-weighted tariffs is shown to depend on the tariff variance and the covariance between tariffs and import demand elasticities.Publication Realizing the Gains from Trade: Export Crops, Marketing Costs, and Poverty(2009)This paper explores the role of export costs in the process of poverty reduction in rural Africa. We claim that the marketing costs that emerge when the commercialization of export crops requires intermediaries can lead to lower participation into export cropping and, thus, to higher poverty. We test the model using data from the Uganda National Household Survey. We show that: i) farmers living in villages with fewer outlets for sales of agricultural exports are likely to be poorer than farmers residing in market-endowed villages; ii) market availability leads to increased household participation in export cropping (coffee, tea, cotton, fruits); iii) households engaged in export cropping are less likely to be poor than subsistence-based households. We conclude that the availability of markets for agricultural export crops help realize the gains from trade. This result uncovers the role of complementary factors that provide market access and reduce marketing costs as key building blocks in the link between the gains from export opportunities and the poor.
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