Publication: Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries
No Thumbnail Available
Published
2009
ISSN
10550925
Date
2012-03-30
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
We assess the determinants of equilibrium real exchange rates in a sample of oil-dependent countries. Our data cover OPEC countries from 1975 to 2005. Utilising pooled mean group and mean group estimators, we find that the price of oil has a clear, statistically significant effect on real exchange rates in our group of oil-producing countries. Higher oil price lead to appreciation of the real exchange rate. Elasticity of the real exchange rate with respect to the oil price is typically between 0.4 and 0.5, but may be even larger depending on the specification. Real per capita GDP, on the other hand, does not appear to have a clear effect on real exchange rate. This latter result contrasts starkly with many earlier papers on real exchange rate determination, emphasising the unique position of oil-dependent countries.
Link to Data Set
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Citations
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Financial Development, Remittances, and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation(2009)For developing countries, remittances are an important and expanding source of capital, equivalent to two-thirds of overall foreign direct investment and nearly 2 percent of gross domestic product. This article examines the relationship between remittance inflows, financial sector development, and the real exchange rate. The authors test whether financial sector development can prevent appreciation of the real exchange rate. In particular, they show that well-developed financial sectors can more effectively channel remittances into investment opportunities. Using panel data for 109 developing and transition countries for 1990-2003, the authors find that remittances by themselves tend to put upward pressure on the real exchange rate. But this effect is weaker in countries with deeper and more sophisticated financial markets, which seem to retain trade competitiveness.Publication Estimating an Equilibrium Exchange Rate for the Argentine Peso(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05)This paper assesses the equilibrium value of the Argentine peso exchange rate based on the country's economic fundamentals and compares it with the official exchange rate value. The paper estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model that allows for movements in the equilibrium real effective exchange rate based on changing economic fundamentals, using monthly data from 1980 to 2015. The analysis identifies four key fundamentals driving the equilibrium exchange rate in Argentina: terms of trade, productivity differentials, foreign currency reserves, and trade openness. Based on these fundamentals, before the exchange rate reunification that took place at the end of 2015, the Argentine peso was overvalued by 39 percent. The results are robust to alternative estimation approaches.Publication Aid, Growth, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-01)Devarajan, Go, Page, Robinson, and Thierfelder argued that if aid is about the future and recipients are able to plan consumption and investment decisions optimally over time, then the potential problem of an aid-induced appreciation of the real exchange rate (Dutch disease) does not occur. In their paper, "Aid, Growth and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," this key result is derived without requiring extreme assumptions or additional productivity story. The economic framework is a standard neoclassical growth model, based on the familiar Salter-Swan characterization of an open economy, with full dynamic savings and investment decisions. It does require that the model is fully dynamic in both savings and investment decisions. An important assumption is that aid should be predictable for intertemporal smoothing to take place. If aid volatility forces recipients to be constrained and myopic, Dutch disease problems become an issue.Publication Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms : A Practioner's Guide to Trade, Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy, Utility Provision, Agricultural Markets, Land Policy and Education, Volume 1(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2005)The analysis of the distributional impact of policy reforms on the well-being or welfare of different stakeholder groups, particularly on the poor and vulnerable, has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries. In recent years this type of work has been labeled as Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) and is increasingly implemented to promote evidence-based policy choices and foster debate on policy reform options.Publication Higher Fuel and Food Prices : Impacts and Responses for Mozambique(2008)Rising world prices for fuel and food represent a negative terms-of-trade shock for Mozambique. The impacts of these price rises are analyzed using various approaches. Detailed price data show that the world price increases are being transmitted to domestic prices. Short-run net benefit ratio analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer-term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis reveals difficult trade-offs between short-run mitigation and long-run growth. Improved agricultural productivity has powerful positive impacts, but remains difficult to achieve and may not address the immediate impacts of higher prices.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
No results found.