Publication: Guinea-Bissau Economic Update, Spring 2024: Retiring the Fiscal Risk
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2024-05-13
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2024-05-13
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The Guinea-Bissau Economic Update monitors significant recent economic developments in the country, highlighting the key structural challenges Guinea-Bissau faces in its pursuit of inclusive and sustained growth.
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“World Bank. 2024. Guinea-Bissau Economic Update, Spring 2024: Retiring the Fiscal Risk. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41539 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start, Summary(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.Publication Guinea-Bissau - Public Expenditure Review Update : Enhancing Growth and Fiscal Adjustment Through Civil Service Reform(World Bank, 2007-05-23)Guinea-Bissau's large public sector wage bill poses a major threat to the country's macroeconomic stability: it hampers growth, limits the government's ability to service the domestic and external debt, and crowds out private investments. For this reason, the government decided in early 2006 to retrench more than 2,800 civil servants in a first phase, and about 1,600 military later. The objectives of this public expenditure review (PER) update are to: (i) review progress in macroeconomic and fiscal management since the previous PER; (ii) analyze the issue of compensation benefits in the context of the ongoing civil service reform; and (ii) update the debt sustainability analysis for Guinea-Bissau. Besides this introduction, the report includes three main chapters on macroeconomic management, improving the fiscal situation, and debt sustainability. The report also gives a final conclusion and discusses the way forward.Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.Publication Guinea-Bissau Economic Update, Spring 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-17)Guinea-Bissau’s economy remained resilient in 2024, despite a challenging cashew campaign, with GDP growth reaching 4.8 percent. Activity in the primary sector was affected by a reduction in cashew production due to adverse weather conditions and lingering effects from the poor 2023 marketing campaign. However, this was partially offset by a more than doubling in farmgate prices for cashews producers and improved subsistence agriculture output. The secondary sector output showed positive signs as well, growing by 8 percent between 2023 and 2024, driven by a rise in the manufacturing sector (particularly in the agri-food industry) and construction activities linked to major infrastructure projects. Growth in the services sector was strong (+4.2 percent y/y) driven by retail and hospitality activities.Publication Debt Management Performance Assessment : Guinea-Bissau(Washington, DC, 2010-01)The objective of the mission was to evaluate current government debt management practices in Guinea-Bissau using the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) tool. The assessment will establish a benchmark for monitoring progress over time and provide an analytical background for reform programs developed by the authorities in partnership with their technical and financial partners, and providers of technical assistance in the area of debt management. This report presents the findings of the mission based on information available as at 4 September 2009. Section two explains the DeMPA methodology. Section three provides the country context for the evaluation. Section four presents the mission's detailed assessment of current debt management practices. Section five concludes and discusses potential next steps. This report has been peer-reviewed by debt management experts and World Bank staff, and is being submitted to the authorities of Guinea-Bissau for their review and comment prior to finalization. The final mission report will be transmitted to the authorities for use and disclosure at their sole discretion.
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