Publication:
Statistically Matching Income and Consumption Data: An Evaluation of Energy and Income Poverty in Romania

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.81 MB)
66 downloads
English Text (95.42 KB)
10 downloads
Date
2024-09-23
ISSN
Published
2024-09-23
Editor(s)
Abstract
To design effective policy instruments that target the energy poor in Romania, it is crucial to understand who the energy poor are. However, these types of analyses are limited by the current data environment. While monetary energy poverty estimates rely on data from expenditure surveys, traditional welfare indicators and detailed information on access to social protection programs form part of the EU-SILC. Samples of both surveys differ; consequently, record linkage of both surveys is impossible. This paper propose an alternative solution to combine information from both surveys, namely statistical matching techniques. It applies several imputation models to impute information on energy spending shares from the HBS into the EU-SILC based on a set of matching variables, compare the performance of these models and apply the best-performing one. Based on the resulting matched dataset, the results show that nearly all the monetary poor are also energy poor, but that a significant additional share of the population in Romania is energy poor. Energy poverty rates are higher at the lower end of the welfare distribution. This result has significant welfare implications.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Rude, Britta; Robayo-Abril, Monica. 2024. Statistically Matching Income and Consumption Data: An Evaluation of Energy and Income Poverty in Romania. Policy Research Working Paper; 10917. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42189 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03) Vagliasindi, Maria; Gorgulu, Nisan
    This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.
  • Publication
    Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2025-04-04) Borin, Alessandro; Mancini, Michele; Taglioni, Daria
    This paper introduces a new approach to measuring Global Value Chains (GVC), crucial for informed policy-making. It features a tripartite classification (backward, forward, and two-sided) covering trade and production data. The findings indicate that traditional trade-based GVC metrics significantly underestimate global GVC activity, especially in sectors like services and upstream manufacturing, and overstate risks in early trade liberalization stages. Additionally, conventional backward-forward classifications over-estimate backward linkages. The paper further applies these measures empirically to assess how GVC participation mediates the impact of demand shocks on domestic output, highlighting both the exposure and stabilizing potential of GVC integration. These new measures are comprehensively available on the World Bank’s WITS Platform, providing a key resource for GVC analysis.
  • Publication
    Participation in Pension Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-24) Giles, John; Joubert, Clément; Tanaka, Tomoaki
    Low- and middle-income countries are aging rapidly but stagnation of growth in participation in pension programs, due to widespread informal employment, presents a major fiscal challenge. Some claim that improving the design of pension program rules can encourage more pension contributions, while others push for universal non-contributory pensions. This paper reviews the recent academic literature on the determinants of active participation in pension systems in high- informality settings. An emerging body of evidence shows that participation responds significantly to financial incentives as well as nonfinancial obstacles. At the same time, pensions are imperfect substitutes for other strategies to cover longevity risk, including support through the family, which will remain crucial for many older people in fiscally constrained environments. Therefore, policy makers should integrate the design of contributory pensions, social pensions, and policies that facilitate other forms of elderly support and consider how all three interact. To inform such efforts, these interactions must be more systematically investigated, and the empirical evidence must be expanded beyond a small number of middle-income countries.
  • Publication
    Capitalizing on Digital Transformation to Enhance the Effectiveness of Property Institutions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-14) Deininger, Klaus; Hilhorst, Thea; Zevenbergen, Jaap; Nkurunziza, Emmanuel
    Property registries have long been a pillar of state capacity and a basis for private market activity. While registry establishment and operation traditionally were costly and time consuming, digital technology makes low-cost registry operation and wide outreach easier. To guide developing countries aiming to establish such registries and measure progress, this paper develops indicators (in terms of digital coverage, interoperability, and property taxation for local service delivery and public land management) of effective digital registry service provision. Data from 85 countries highlight vast differences and provide suggestions for strategic reforms as well as a basis for measuring progress over time. Expanding geographical coverage and collecting these indicators on a regular basis could provide guidance to improve the way in which, by protecting property, the state creates the basis for widely shared prosperity and a livable environment.
  • Publication
    Bridging the Gap
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-21) Kruse, Hagen; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Tourek, Gabriel; Xie, Zoe Leiyu
    This paper examines tax revenue shortfalls in South Asian countries. On average during 2019–23, South Asian revenues totaled 18 percent of GDP—well below the average 24 percent among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Econometric estimates from stochastic frontier analysis, which control for tax rates and the size of potential tax bases, suggest that tax revenues in the region are 1 to 7 percentage points of GDP below potential, with shortfalls in five of the region’s eight countries larger than in the average EMDE. Even after controlling for country characteristics, such as widespread informal economic activity outside the tax net and large agriculture sectors, sizable tax gaps remain, suggesting the need for improved tax policy and administration. The paper discusses and provides evidence from international experience with reforms to raise government revenues.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Statistical Matching for Combining the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions and the Household Budget Surveys
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-26) Rude, Britta; Robayo, Monica
    Energy poverty has gained attention in the context of increasing energy prices and the recent energy crisis in Europe. However, measuring energy poverty and characterizing the energy poor are challenging, given that expenditure surveys (household budget surveys) often need more information to characterize the energy poor. Additionally, there is no consensus on how to measure and monitor energy poverty. It is also unknown how and why it differs from income poverty. While income poverty relies on a well-defined poverty line, energy poverty does not have a clearly defined energy poverty line that indicates the minimum energy necessary for satisfying basic needs. In addition, monetary poverty and other welfare measures are measured with income in EU countries using the European Survey of Income and Living Conditions. Therefore, it is not straightforward to characterize energy affordability among the monetary income poor or to estimate the overlap between official income poverty and energy poverty. This paper explores statistical matching as a potential strategy to overcome these data challenges in the context of Bulgaria. Via data fusion, a unique dataset is generated that contains information on energy spending shares, income-based indicators of poverty and inequality, and additional variables on households' living conditions and welfare. For this purpose, the paper first generates a harmonized dataset, which consists of the European Survey of Income and Living Conditions and household budget survey data. It then employs different imputation models and chooses the best-performing one to impute energy spending shares into data. Based on the resulting dataset, it overlays energy poverty with monetary poverty. The findings show that a large share of the energy poor is not income poor, calling for differentiated policy measures to tackle energy poverty. Importantly, these findings depend on the underlying definition of energy poverty. This paper contributes to a growing body of literature exploring the potential of statistical matching to improve the current data environment in the European Union.
  • Publication
    Conceptualizing and Measuring Energy Poverty in Bulgaria
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-28) Robayo-Abril, Monica; Rude, Britta
    Addressing energy poverty has emerged as one of the main challenges for Bulgaria's poverty and social inclusion policy, particularly in the context of the European Green Deal and the current crisis in Ukraine. To tackle the adverse impacts of energy poverty effectively, a crucial initial step involves accurately defining and measuring this issue. Identifying households affected by energy poverty is essential for shaping and implementing targeted policies. This study explores various definitions of energy poverty within the Bulgarian context by (1) systematically reviewing current methodologies and measures employed in the EU context; (2) assessing the feasibility of implementing these measures in Bulgaria based on data availability, comparing the incidence of energy poverty using alternative measures, and presenting characteristics of energy poverty to inform potential policy instruments; and (3) providing policy recommendations for the measurement and monitoring of energy poverty. The way energy poverty is measured and the overlap with income poverty shape the types of policy solutions perceived to be possible and appropriate to address it. The evaluation supports the need to shift from single indicators to multidimensional approaches in measuring energy poverty. Additionally, enhancing the granularity, quality, and frequency of expenditure and income surveys can contribute to easier operationalization of these concepts and a better understanding of the demographics of energy poverty. The study proposes exploring alternative data generation methods, such as smart meters, further to enhance insights into the dynamics of energy poverty.
  • Publication
    Tax Compliance in Romania
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-07) Robayo-Abril, Monica; Balaban, Georgiana; Wronski, Marcin
    This paper uses statistical matching techniques to assess tax compliance and underreporting of labor income in Romania, overall and for different population groups, including among minimum wage workers, to understand the distributional implications and its links with minimum wage policy and design. Understanding the extent and distribution of tax evasion is relevant for enhancing domestic tax capacity, its redistributive impacts, and the links with social policy, including minimum wage policy. Estimating the average underreporting of income is challenging due to the significant underrepresentation of top incomes in survey data. After censoring, the average underreporting of income is 6 percent. When looking at the distribution of tax evasion, the analysis also shows significant underreporting of income in the bottom half of the income distribution. The results show that tax-reported income at the median of the income distribution equals only 90 percent of the true (survey) income, and at the 25th percentile, this share is 83 percent. Women are more tax compliant than men. Tax compliance varies across sectors of the economy, regions of the country, and demographic groups. Transport, construction, and food and accommodation are the sectors of the economy with the lowest tax compliance. The underreporting of income results in lower fiscal capacity for the country and may also lower the efficiency of means-tested social assistance. The underreporting of income significantly increases the share of minimum wage earners, which may impact the minimum wage policy.
  • Publication
    Understanding and Addressing Energy Poverty in Romania
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-17) Robayo-Abril, Monica; Karver, Jonathan; Rude, Britta; Tomio, Ailin; Silvestri, Alessandro; Cadena, Kiyomi
    Addressing energy poverty is paramount for economic development, given its close connection to income poverty. Research indicates that lower-income households are disproportionately affected by energy price increases. Such households lack the financial means to absorb these shocks, which can lead to decreased overall welfare. This vulnerability can result in households’ refraining from using energy or using less efficient and dirtier technologies and sources, particularly during winter, which poses health risks. Moreover, global evidence suggests that residing in energy-deprived circumstances adversely affects overall well-being, human development, and environmental outcomes. The imperative to measure and address energy poverty in Romania is underscored by the potential development benefits and the European Commission’s prioritization of this issue within the European Just Transition context. This report aims to fill that gap by providing evidence on critical questions about the energy status of Romanian households. The report focuses on four key topics, relying on existing official household surveys and new qualitative and quantitative data collected in June–July 2023, with the aim of providing an updated snapshot of energy vulnerability among Romanian households.
  • Publication
    Unveiling Multidimensional Poverty
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-10) Robayo-Abril, Monica; Echeverria, Lucia
    The European Union has improved living standards, yet welfare disparities persist across regions, countries, and demographic groups. This paper uses data from European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions cross-sectional and longitudinal surveys and the at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion framework to analyze recent temporal trends in absolute multidimensional poverty across the 27 countries in the European Union and its subregions. The analysis quantifies the extent, composition, and factors associated with the higher risks of multidimensional poverty across four countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Poland) and extends the at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion framework to consider other dimensions of deprivations. The paper analyzes the extent of multidimensional poverty among the Roma population in Bulgaria and assesses the extent of chronic income poverty and chronic material deprivation among this group. The analysis reveals that some European Union member states present strikingly divergent trends in multidimensional poverty compared to the European Union average, and there have been different rates of progress across subregions. Results of the analysis of the four countries of interest indicate that although monetary poverty risks are comparable across these countries, there are notable variations in the incidence of nonmonetary indicators and the intensity of deprivations. However, the likelihood of being multidimensionally poor is conditioned by similar individual, socioeconomic, and family characteristics across countries. The Roma population in Bulgaria encounters more concurrent disadvantages compared to the broader population and is significantly more likely to be disproportionately represented among those experiencing chronic poverty and material deprivations. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted policy interventions that tackle the most pressing needs of disadvantaged populations. Finally, the study proposes a set of potential policy interventions to address structural inequalities and improve the well-being of vulnerable populations.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Education, Social Norms, and the Marriage Penalty
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16) Bussolo, Maurizio; Rexer, Jonah; Triyana, Margaret
    A growing literature attributes gender inequality in labor market outcomes in part to the reduction in female labor supply after childbirth, the child penalty. However, if social norms constrain married women’s activities outside the home, then marriage can independently reduce employment, even in the absence childbearing. Given the correlation in timing between childbirth and marriage, conventional estimates of child penalties will conflate these two effects. The paper studies the marriage penalty in South Asia, a context featuring conservative gender norms and low female labor force participation. The study introduces a split-sample, pseudo-panel approach that allows for the separation of marriage and child penalties even in the absence of individual-level panel data. Marriage reduces women’s labor force participation in South Asia by 12 percentage points, whereas the marginal penalty of childbearing is small. Consistent with the central roles of both opportunity costs and social norms, the marriage penalty is smaller among cohorts with higher education and less conservative gender attitudes.
  • Publication
    Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06) Calleja, Ramon V., Jr.; Mbuya, Nkosinathi V.N.; Morimoto, Tomo; Thitsy, Sophavanh
    The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.
  • Publication
    Economic Recovery
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06) Malpass, David; Georgieva, Kristalina; Yellen, Janet
    World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.
  • Publication
    Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12) Malpass, David
    World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.
  • Publication
    Global Regulations, Institutional Development, and Market Authorities Perspective Toolkit (GRIDMAP) - Framework and Methodology
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-05) World Bank
    GRIDMAP--the Global Regulations, Institutional Development, and Market Authorities Perspective Toolkit--provides emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) with a “Minimum Package” of policies to build markets that are trustworthy, safe, and competitive. The “Minimum Package” sets out essential regulatory provisions, institutional arrangements, and implementation and enforcement needed for those markets to thrive. GRIDMAP will provide modules focused on various subjects of market regulation, such as consumer protection and data markets.