Publication: Energy Prices, Energy Intensity, and Firm Performance
Loading...
Published
2025-02-20
ISSN
Date
2025-02-20
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper estimates the effect of electricity prices on firm performance, focusing on firm productivity, sales, and employment. Using the World Bank Business Pulse Survey data for a sample of 24 emerging markets and developing economies during 2019–23, the paper estimates the average effect and the heterogeneous effects across industries of varying energy intensity and firms that implemented (or did not implement) energy efficiency measures (self-reported in the Business Pulse Survey). The findings show that increasing electricity prices by 1 percent reduces employment at firms in energy-intensive industries that did not adopt energy efficiency measures by about 1.5 percent, compared with similar firms in energy-non-intensive sectors. In parallel, energy-intensive firms may increase sales and productivity but this result is robust to all alternative specifications. Firms may increase sales while reducing employment after energy price hikes, by adopting energy-efficient technologies and by passing through costs to consumers in inelastic markets while reducing employment in energy-intensive sectors due to cost pressures. These results highlight the adoption of energy efficiency measures by firms as an important employment protection policy action to cope with future volatility in energy (electricity) prices.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Aterido, Reyes; Iootty, Mariana; Melecky, Martin. 2025. Energy Prices, Energy Intensity, and Firm Performance. Policy Research Working Paper; 11069. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42844 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Marshall Plan: Then and Now(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-14)This paper is a product of the Development Policy Team, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Geopolitical Risks and Trade(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23)This paper studies the impact of geopolitical risks on international trade, using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and an empirical gravity model. The impact of spikes in geopolitical risk on trade is negative, strong, and heterogeneous across sectors. The findings show that increases in geopolitical risk reduce trade by about 30 to 40 percent. These effects are equivalent to an increase of global tariffs of up to 14 percent. Services trade is most vulnerable to geopolitical risks, followed by agriculture, and the impact on manufacturing trade is moderate. These negative effects are partially mitigated by cultural and geographic proximity, as well as by the presence of trade agreements.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Firm Performance in Central Asia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-08-30)This paper studies the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the performance of firms in Central Asia. It uses unique data from the Business Pulse Survey run by the World Bank in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, which tracks the sales and employment—along with other main characteristics—of about 1,200 to 1,800 firms in a panel structure. The survey contains two waves before and one wave after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Using the difference-in-differences methodology in a regression setup, the analysis finds that Central Asian firms with pre-invasion trade links to Russia suffered greater drops in sales and employment after the invasion—even though exporters to Russia may have experienced, on average, higher sales during the studied period. Considering the pre-invasion digitization of firms, the findings show that digitization helped firms increase their average employment during the studied period. However, the analysis does not find any significant mitigating effect of digitalization associated with the impact of the invasion.Publication Stylized Facts on Productivity Growth : Evidence from Firm-level Data in Croatia(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-07)Drawing on a representative sample of firms, this paper presents some microeconomic evidence on the productivity growth process in Croatia since the onset of recession (2008-12). Four types of results are highlighted. First, there is a persistent (and increasing) heterogeneity in the performance of Croatian firms along outcome measures. Second, Croatia lags behind regional peers in entrepreneurship measures, which suggests a comparatively lower economic dynamism. Third, the lack of dynamism displayed by the Croatian economy is confirmed when looking at the firm entry and exit process: the analytical results point to reduced firm dynamism compared with Croatia's peers in Europe and Central Asia. Fourth, the contribution of net entry to overall productivity growth in Croatia is surprisingly negative. This is contrary to what would be expected based on the literature and suggests that the process of "destructive creation" in Croatia has not been efficient, as the market might be eliminating firms that are potentially productive. Policies that foster market contestability should be pursued, especially policies aiming at better product market regulation (such as liberalization of entry into the service sector, particularly retail and infrastructure). Measures to help finance entrepreneurship (in promising sectors) should be used to support enhancements in firm productivity. In addition, appropriate bankruptcy rules play a key role by easing the exit process and allowing low-productive units to leave the market and free resources that can be better used by other, more efficient, firms.Publication Paying the Price for Unreliable Power Supplies : In-House Generation of Electricity by Firms in Africa(2009-04-01)This paper documents the prevalence of in-house generation of electric power by firms in Sub-Saharan Africa and attempts to identify the underlying causes. The analysis is based on two data sources. The UDI World Electric Power Plants Data Base (WEPP), a global inventory of electric power generating units, provides a detailed inventory of in-house generation at the country level. The World Bank's Enterprise Survey Database captures business perceptions of the obstacles to enterprise growth for 8,483 currently operating firms in 25 African countries. Overall, so-called own generation by firms-which has been on the rise in recent years-accounts for about 6 percent of installed generation capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa (equivalent to at least 4,000 MW of installed capacity). However, this share doubles to around 12 percent in the low-income countries, the post-conflict countries, and more generally on the Western side of the continent. In a handful of countries own generation represents more than 20 percent of capacity. Rigorous empirical analysis shows that unreliable public power supplies is far from being the only or even the largest factor driving generator ownership. Firm characteristics have a major influence-in particular, the probability of owning a generator doubles in large firms relative to small ones. Our model predicts that the prevalence of own generation would remain high (at around 20 percent) even if power supplies were perfectly reliable, suggesting that other factors, such as emergency back-up and export regulations, play a critical role in the decision to own a generator.Publication Domestic Constraints, Firm Characteristics, and Geographical Diversification of Firm-Level Manufacturing Exports in Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-03)Using firm-level data on manufacturing sectors in Africa, this paper addresses how domestic supply constraints and other firm characteristics explain the geographical orientation of firms' exports and the overall market diversification of African manufacturing exports. The degree of market diversification, measured by the number of export destinations, is highly correlated with export intensity at the firm level, and both embody strong scale effects. Technological factors, such as new vintage capital and Internet access, which improve production efficiency and lower export costs, show strong effects on the firm-level export intensity. Some qualitative differences exist between Africa's regional exports and exports to the global markets. Foreign ownership is a significant factor in characterizing the intensity of global exports but not regional exports. The technological factors are significant in both cases, but more so in global exports. Public infrastructure constraints, such as inferior power services and customs delays, seem to have more immediate impacts on regional exports in general, implying the relevance of addressing behind-the-border constraints in fostering regional integration in Africa. Customs efficiency does matter for textile exports to the global markets, underscoring the importance of improving trade facilitation in Africa for competitive participation of African producers in global supply chain industries.Publication Are Large Firms Born or Made?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-08)This paper uses survey data from 120 developing countries to compare the role of institutions with firm characteristics at the time of creation of the firm in explaining the size, growth, and productivity of firms over their lifecycle. The study finds that firm-level characteristics have comparable, and sometimes even larger, power than institutional factors in predicting size and growth, but not productivity. In particular, size at birth plays a key role in predicting variation in firm size and growth since birth over the firm lifecycle, whereas country factors dominate in predicting variation in labor productivity over the firm lifecycle. The study also finds that older firms are larger, partly because of the selection of more efficient firms. The findings point to the importance of initial founding conditions in explaining variations in size and growth over the firm lifecycle across countries.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Beyond Unicorns(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-07-28)Similar to many other countries around the world, the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has hit Indonesia hard. Latest estimates suggest that about 5.1 million people—equivalent to 2.4 percent of the working-age population—have lost their jobs, while an additional 24 million have had to work reduced hours due to the pandemic. As many as 50 percent of workers have experienced a reduction in earnings. The impact on living standards has been devastating, with more than 2.2 million Indonesians estimated to have been pushed into COVID-19-induced poverty in 2020. One unexpected silver lining from the crisis, however, has been the turbo-charged adoption of digital technologies. Businesses, both large and small, have flocked to digital technologies to try to ensure the continuity of their operations. School closures have forced students and teachers to adapt and explore digitally enabled remote learning options, including the adoption of a variety of EdTech solutions. HealthTech apps enabling remote consultations and the delivery of medicine have seen unprecedented growth in adoption rates. Confined at home due to mobility restrictions, Indonesians have switched to the internet for their entertainment and social needs, driving sharp growth in the usage of digital media (music and video streaming) and communications applications. With this pandemic-induced flight to digital expected to be permanent to a large extent, there is excitement about an even greater acceleration in what was already the fastest growing digital economy in Southeast Asia. But at the same time questions have also emerged about the possibility of the differential access to and adoption of digital technologies compounding existing inequalities. For a country that considers achieving balanced development one of its key priorities, this is an important new challenge.Publication A New Dawn for Global Value Chain Participation in the Philippines(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)A New Dawn for Global Value Chain Participation in the Philippines provides policy recommendations to increase the Philippines’ global value chain (GVC) participation in a post–COVID-19 (coronavirus) world. The Philippines could indeed benefit from the shifting dynamics of GVCs by attracting more investments as investors look for alternative production sources less sensitive to trade tensions. The book uses up-to-date trade data, analysis of megatrends affecting selected value chains, and interviews with multinational companies and their local suppliers to inform a strategic approach to rethink, diversify, and reorient the country’s GVC participation. The main finding is that the crisis can help strengthen the country’s foreign direct investment attractiveness and motivate operators in GVCs to develop the domestic skills they need for more advantageous GVC participation. The book also explores policies to mobilize key stakeholders (government, lead firms, and domestic suppliers) and to foster participation in three strategic GVC clusters: industrial, manufacturing, and transportation; technology, media, and telecommunications; and health and life sciences.Publication Doing Business 2009 : Comparing Regulation in 181 Economies(Washington, DC : World Bank and Palgave Macmillon, 2008)Doing Business 2009 is the sixth in a series of annual reports investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 181 economies from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe and over time. Regulations affecting 10 stages of the life of a business are measured: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, employing workers, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, and closing a business. Data in Doing Business 2009 are current as of June 1, 2008. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms have worked, where, and why. The methodology for the legal rights of lenders and borrowers, part of the getting credit indicators, changed for Doing Business 2009. The paper includes the following headings: overview, starting a business, dealing with construction permits, employing workers, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, and closing a business.Publication Vietnam(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05-01)Following from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectiveness from January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratification by the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated its determination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the future global context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chains due to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries in the region. The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However, in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistent economic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves to ratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner, the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) from joining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that must be addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance with Vietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generation of FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that the country maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment. This report explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into the global economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA.Publication Strengthening Competitiveness In Bangladesh—Thematic Assessment(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-07-15)This is volume 2 of a three-volume publication on Bangladesh’s trade prospects. Bangladesh’s ambition is to build on its very solid growth and poverty reduction achievements, and accelerate growth to become a middle income country by 2021, and share prosperity more widely amongst its citizens. This includes one of its greatest development challenges: to provide gainful employment to the over 2 million people that will join the labor force each year over the next decade. Moreover, only 54.1 million of its 94 million working age people are employed. Bangladesh needs to use its labor endowment even more intensively to increase growth and, in turn, to absorb the incoming labor. The Diagnostic Trade Integration Study identifies the following actions centered around four pillars to sustain and accelerate export growth: (1) breaking into new markets through a) better trade logistics to reduce delivery lags ; as world markets become more competitive and newer products demand shorter lead times, to generate new sources of competitiveness and thereby enable market diversification; and b) better exploitation of regional trading opportunities in nearby growing and dynamic markets, especially East and South Asia; (2) breaking into new products through a) more neutral and rational trade policy and taxation and bonded warehouse schemes; b) concerted efforts to spur domestic investment and attract foreign direct investment, to contribute to export promotion and diversification, including by easing the energy and land constraints; and c) strategic development and promotion of services trade; (3) improving worker and consumer welfare by a) improving skills and literacy; b) implementing labor and work safety guidelines; and c) making safety nets more effective in dealing with trade shocks; and (4) building a supportive environment, including a) sustaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals; and b) strengthening the institutional capacity for strategic policy making aimed at the objective of international competitiveness to help bring focus and coherence to the government’s reform efforts. This second volume provides in-depth analysis across seven cross-cutting themes that underpin most of the findings of pillars 1 and 2 above.